-Caveat Lector-

Study: AIDS devastating Africa; 24 million may die

By HARRY DUNPHY, Associated Press

WASHINGTON (October 31, 2000 7:53 p.m. EST
http://www.nandotimes.com) - An analysis by an environmental research
group shows that the African AIDS epidemic is reducing life expectancy,
raising mortality, lowering fertility, leaving more men alive than women, and
producing millions of orphans.

Worldwatch Institute chairman Lester Brown said that unless a medical
miracle occurs, almost all the 24 million Africans infected with the virus at
the beginning of 2000 will die. Each day 6,000 Africans die from AIDS, and
an additional 11,000 are infected.

Brown said the epidemic is not being given the priority it deserves, either
within countries most affected or in the rich nations and other countries
outside Africa.

Some hope is offered in Uganda, one of the earliest-hit countries, which
has managed to give AIDS a high priority, and Zambia may be turning the
tide in lowering infection rates as well, Brown said in his report, based on
research by Worldwatch and other private and government agencies.

Brown noted that life expectancy, a key indicator of economic growth, is
falling fast in Africa.

In Zimbabwe, without AIDS, life expectancy in 2010 would be 70. With
AIDS, it is expected to fall below 35 years. For South Africa it will fall from
68 to 48, and for Zambia from 60 to 30.

"These life expectancies are more akin to those of the Middle Ages than
the modern age," Brown said.

New research also indicates the virus reduces fertility, Brown said. The
research is limited but indicates that from the time of HIV infection onward
fertility among infected women slowly declines.

The report said that by the time symptoms appear, women are 70 percent
less likely to be pregnant than those who were not infected.

Because African women most often have sexual relations with older men
who are more likely to be infected, the females get the disease earlier and
die before completing their reproductive years, which further reduces
births.

Worldwatch said Africa faces a shortage of women that is unique in the
world.

After wars, countries often face shortages of males, as France did after
World War I and Russia after World War II.

"This epidemic, however, is claiming more females than males in Africa,
promising a future where men will outnumber women 11 to 9. This will leave
many men bachelors or forced to migrate to other countries in search of a
wife," the report said.

The death of many young parents in Africa from AIDS is creating millions of
orphans as well, with 40 million expected by 2010, it said.

"Although Africa's extended family system is highly resilient and capable of
caring for" these children, "it will be staggered by this challenge," the report
said. "There is a real possibility that millions of orphans will become street
children."

Worldwatch is a nonprofit, independently funded environmental and social
research group.

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