-Caveat Lector-
Sunday November 5 6:32 PM ET
Bush Lead Down to a Point in Reuters/MSNBC Poll
By Alan Elsner, Political Correspondent
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Republican George W. Bush's lead over
Democrat Al Gore fell to a single percentage point in Sunday's
Reuters/MSNBC national tracking poll, and six key battleground
states remained too close to call.
The national survey of around 1,200 voters likely to take part in
Tuesday's election, conducted Friday through Sunday by pollster
John Zogby, found the Texas governor with 47 percent and the vice
president with 46 percent.
With a statistical margin of error of plus or minus three
percentage points, the race is too close to call with the
election two days away.
Green Party nominee Ralph Nader polled 5 percent; Reform Party
candidate Pat Buchanan stayed at 1 percent and Libertarian Party
candidate Harry Browne also polled 1 percent.
``Nader continues to be the difference in this popular vote horse
race. Twenty-eight percent of Nader voters, however, still say
that they are very or somewhat likely to change their minds,''
said Zogby.
``On the other hand, only 10 percent of Gore supporters and 7
percent of Bush supporters still say they can change,'' he said.
With the national poll this close, attention swings to a few
battleground states where the election will be decided. Separate
Reuters/MSNBC tracking polls of around 600 likely voters in nine
key states showed an equally muddled picture.
Gore seemed securely ahead in Michigan and Illinois. Bush
appeared to have Ohio sewn up. But Florida, Missouri, Washington,
Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Tennessee all remained within the
margin of error of plus or minus four points.
In total, 153 votes in the Electoral College are up for grabs in
those nine states. At the moment according to these polls, Gore
would win 99 and Bush would take 54 of those votes.
In Florida, possibly the single most crucial state, Gore
increased his slim lead to three points from one. He also added a
point in Washington. But Bush bounded four points ahead in
Tennessee and added a point in Wisconsin. There was no
discernible pattern in these poll movements that would give
evidence of a national wave for either candidate.
These are the complete state-by-state results for Sunday,
including the net change over the past 24 hours:
Bush Gore Nader Electoral Votes Net Change Florida 46 49 4 25
Gore +2 Illinois 40 53 6 22 Gore +4 Michigan 43 50 5 18 Bush +2
Missouri 49 45 4 11 Bush +2 Ohio 52 43 3 21 Gore +1 P'sylvania 45
47 6 23 unchanged Tennessee 50 46 3 11 Bush +4 Washington 44 48 7
11 Gore +1 Wisconsin 47 45 7 11 Bush +1
A total of 270 electoral votes are needed to be elected
president. Most analysts believe both candidates have definitely
secured about 200, leaving some 138 to be fought over that will
decide the election.
Also Close In House Struggle
In the equally tight race for the House of Representatives,
voters in the national poll preferred the Democrats by two
points. The Democrats need a net gain of seven seats to regain
control from the Republicans.
Several tight Senate races also showed movement in the past 24
hours.
-- In New York, Democratic first lady Hillary Rodham Clinton held
a three-point lead over Republican Rick Lazio, 48 percent to 45
percent.
-- In Missouri, the late Gov. Mel Carnahan, whose wife says she
would serve in his place if he won, held a slight lead over
Republican Sen. John Ashcroft 47-45 percent. Carnahan was killed
in a plane crash on Oct. 16 but his name remains on the ballot.
-- In Florida, Democrat Bill Nelson's lead over Republican Bill
McCollum has suddenly shrunk to a single point, 44-43 percent.
Nelson had held a seemingly secure lead but it has melted away in
the past two days.
-- In Washington state, Democrat Maria Cantwell has sprung into a
seven-point lead over Republican Sen. Slade Gorton, 50-43
percent. Gorton had previously led the race.
-- In Michigan, Democrat Debbie Stabenow was a little ahead of
Republican Sen. Spencer Abraham, 47-45 percent.
Democrats need to pick up five seats to regain the majority in
the Senate.
In the national presidential poll, Bush was gaining the support
of 88 percent of Republicans but Gore was backed by only 79
percent of Democrats. The vice president could even the race if
more of his own party came home.
Men backed Bush by 19 points; women preferred Gore by a 12-point
margin as the electorate continued to show a substantial gender
gap.
Reuters and MSNBC will release a new poll at 6:30 p.m. EST (2330
GMT) on Monday and a final poll at 7 a.m (1200 GMT) on Election
Day.
Copyright © 2000 Reuters Limited. All rights reserved.
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Kadosh, Kadosh, Kadosh, YHVH, TZEVAOT
FROM THE DESK OF:
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~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
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