-Caveat Lector- -------- Original Message -------- Subject: Israel - Attack Date: Thu, 9 Nov 2000 19:55:13 -0600 (CST) From: <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> To: [EMAIL PROTECTED] Stratfor.com's Global Intelligence Update - 10 November 2000 _________________________________________________ WHAT'S INSIDE THE NEW STRATFOR.COM An Important Military Base In Peril A British High Court decision would allow the original residents of Diego Garcia to return to this island, now used by the U.S. and British militaries. The island is a key to the Indian Ocean and the Persian Gulf, important to Western vessels and bombers alike. Read about it in our new GeoPolitics section. Subscribe for just $49.95 per year, now! http://www.stratfor.com/subscribe.html _______________________________________________ Israel Fights Arafat's Domestic Battle Summary Israeli helicopters launched rockets at a vehicle carrying commanders of Yasser Arafat's Fatah faction of Palestinians Nov. 9. A rift in Arafat's Fatah has become increasingly distinct as the Palestinian intifada, or uprising, continues in the streets. Israel has shifted tactics, and is now taking out Fatah elements no longer loyal to Arafat. Ironically, the attack may indicate progress is being made in Israeli-Palestinian negotiations. Analysis Israeli attack helicopters blew up a vehicle carrying commanders of the Fatah faction of Palestinians Nov. 9. According to reports from The Associated Press and the Jerusalem Post, witnesses saw four helicopters close in on the vehicle, described as a green pickup truck or van, and two of the helicopters fired laser-guided Hellfire rockets. The attack occurred in the village of Beit Sahur near Bethlehem in the West Bank. One of the vehicle's occupants and two female bystanders were killed in the attack. The dead man was identified as Hussein Abeyad, a plainclothes Palestinian gunman linked to the Fatah Tanzim militia, which has been accused of instigating much of the recent street violence. The Israel Defense Force holds Abeyad responsible for the deaths of several soldiers and claims he directed recent attacks on IDF forces near Gilo and Rachel's Tomb. Khaled Salahat, a senior Palestinian intelligence official, was critically wounded in the helicopter attack. Two unidentified passengers escaped with minor injuries, according to The Associated Press. __________________________________________________________________ Subscribe now for just $49.95 per year! http://www.stratfor.com/subscribe.html _____________________________________________________________ The attack marks a significant tactical shift by Israel in dealing with ongoing violence. According to an IDF statement, This action is part of the actions being initiated by the Israeli security forces and will continue. It is aimed at hitting those responsible for escalating the violence. This comes after Fatah Tanzim severely intensified its attacks. The statement explicitly named the Fatah Tanzim militias and avoided holding Yasser Arafat personally responsible. Arafat founded the Fatah movement. But shortly after its creation, Fatah divided into two camps: those whose loyalty to Arafat is unquestionable and a rebellious faction that takes a harder line toward peace negotiations. The latter is often critical of the Palestinian National Authority. This rift has grown following the Hebron massacre and the Oslo Accords. And the fissure apparently broke wide open when the Camp David summit failed to produce a peace agreement. For Palestinian hard-liners, Camp David's failure confirmed Palestinian beliefs that the only way to achieve independence is through violent uprising. It appears Arafat has lost control of the rebellious Fatah. For example, Marwan Barghouthi, a Fatah leader in the West Bank and commander of the Tanzim militia, has taken a hard line against Arafat. On Nov. 8, he made the Fatah rift clear, claiming the intifada will go on with or without Arafat. Several other Fatah leaders have echoed Barghouthi's sentiment and indicated they are no longer taking orders from Arafat. Interestingly, only rebellious Fatah elements have come out and criticized the Nov. 9 helicopter attack. Barghouthi called the attack an assassinatio and said, I think this will push Fatah for a reaction reported The Associated Press. Hussein al-Sheikh a Fatah West Bank official supporting the intifada said,this is the beginning of targeting Fatah and we will respond according to Agence France Presse. Arafat, who is currently in Washington, has not condemned or even mentioned the attack so far. ________________________________________________________ Yes, I'd like to subscribe for just $49.95 per year! http://www.stratfor.com/subscribe.html ________________________________________________________ Ironically, the attack may be an indication that progress is being made in the implementation of the recent Sharm el-Sheikh cease-fire agreement. The precision of the Israeli helicopter attack indicates Arafat's security services are cooperating with the Israelis in accordance with the Egypt agreement in order to liquidate Fatah elements who are promoting the intifada outside Arafat's control. Diplomatic traffic and official statements also indicate progress is being made and some sort of Israeli-Palestinian dialogue has resumed. Arafat is in Washington for talks with U.S. President Bill Clinton. Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Barak will meet Clinton in Washington Nov. 12. On Nov. 8, Barak's office reportedly sent a letter to Clinton in which he wrote, "We could resume negotiations, which based on the ideas discussed at Camp David will lead to the creation of a viable Palestinian state." Indeed, prior to Arafat's arrival in Washington, he met with Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak, who affirmed Arafat was pursuing peace. Israel appears to have come to terms with the prospect that Arafat cannot control the intifada. Indeed, Arafat may have even appealed to the Israelis for help. In essence, Israel can help keep Arafat in power and continue negotiations or watch him fall to the hard- liners and unrestricted intifada in the territories. Even if Israel is now effectively fighting Arafat's domestic battle for him, it does not mean Arafat's problems are over. On the contrary, Arafat must now deliver on his promise to secure a Palestinian state through peace negotiations. If Arafat cracks down or helps Israel crack down on those leading the intifada, and then fails to negotiate a final settlement, he will be completely discredited. He may also lose his legitimacy and public mandate to lead the Palestinian people. _______________________________________________ SUBSCRIBE to our new service. Just go to http://www.stratfor.com/subscribe.html _______________________________________________ (c) 2000 Stratfor, Inc. _______________________________________________ SUBSCRIBE to the free, daily Global Intelligence Update. 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