-Caveat Lector-
INTERNATIONAL FEATURE
Colombia, for many American, is synonymous with violence. Here, police
inspect the body of a man killed during an assassination attempt on a
prominent Colombian union leader. (Scott Dalton/AP Photo) Sliding Toward
Doom
Civil, Economic, Political Turbulence Shaking Colombia
Analysis
By Jack Sweeney
Special to ABCNEWS.com
Dec. 15 - Colombia, one of the world's most violent nations, is rapidly
sliding toward economic and political collapse.
Peace talks between the government of President Andres Pastrana and the
country's largest guerrilla organization, the Revolutionary Armed Forces of
Colombia (FARC), made no progress. In November, the guerrillas suspended
talks indefinitely.
Meanwhile, civil strife is intensifying. By year's end it is estimated
more than 30,000 criminal homicides and political killings and more than
3,000 kidnappings will be reported in Colombia. Massacres by right-wing
paramilitary groups have also increased significantly.
A Worsening Conflict
Increasingly, the conflict's geography is changing. Violence between Marxist
rebels and right-wing paramilitary groups is spreading from Colombia's rural
areas into urban and economic centers. Guerrillas are waging increasingly
economic warfare against individual and corporate targets.
Marxist guerrillas are striking energy targets in an apparent effort to
cripple the economy. Rebels have destroyed more than 370 electricity
transmission towers in the last 18 months. Since January, the oil pipeline
between Cano Limon and Covenas has been dynamited 90 times. Increasingly,
the FARC and the National Liberation Army (ELN) are attacking foreign
companies' assets in a bid to drive foreign investment out of the country.
In Bogot�, Pastrana's government is divided and increasingly unpopular.
Pastrana was elected in 1998 with a mandate to pursue a peace agreement
with the FARC and ELN and a pledge to revive an economy battered by the
global decline in oil demand. Since Pastrana was elected, however, the
conflict has intensified, and the economy has suffered its worst recession
in 70 years.
Unemployment has reached 21 percent, the highest level in more than a
century.
Government vs. Military vs. Rebels
Complicating matters, a deep rift has opened up between the Pastrana
government and the armed forces, for reasons that include the peace talks
and concessions the Pastrana government has made to the FARC.
The senior military command structure remains loyal to Pastrana, but
discontent runs high among lower-grade officers and senior career
noncommissioned officers. In 1999, the military's senior commanders barely
averted a coup attempt by junior officers.
Meanwhile, Colombia's Marxist rebel organizations and right-wing
paramilitary groups are increasing their forces and expanding their presence
throughout the country.
The FARC reportedly has between 14,000 and 20,000 armed fighters
scattered throughout the country. According to Colombian military sources,
the FARC also has about 36,000 civilian militias throughout Colombia
providing crucial support in the area of logistics; supply; intelligence
gathering; and financial, political and legal assistance.
In the next three to five years, the FARC expects to have at least
32,000 armed fighters throughout Colombia, including 15,000 in the north,
west and east, and 17,000 in the south.
Splitting into More Wars
The line of division between the FARC's main forces is the Eastern
Cordillera mountain range. By increasing forces particularly in the north,
west and east, the rebels are moving to divide the country and wage two
distinct wars.
In Colombia's largely undeveloped southern provinces, the FARC plans to
defend its jungle domain, where about two-thirds of Colombia's coca is
grown, from incursions by the Colombian army and police.
In the north, the FARC will conduct a classic guerrilla war, attacking
military and economic targets and seeking to wear down the government and
sap the morale of Colombian society. The FARC's military strategy calls for
controlling key cities, towns and roads along the Eastern Cordillera.
This strategy will intensify the conflict in Colombia's developed
areas. Already, the ELN concentrates its operations in the north, east and
west. The ELN is estimated to have between 4,000 and 7,000 armed fighters
mainly in northern and eastern Colombia.
More Combatants Too
The growth of guerrilla groups is being met by the even faster growth of
paramilitary forces, most important the United Self-Defenses of Colombia
(AUC), an umbrella group of seven private paramilitary groups funded by
private landowners and drug traffickers.
The size of the AUC's forces is estimated at more than 8,000 as of
mid-2000, according to the Colombian Defense Ministry. However, AUC leader
Carlos Castano claims he has 11,000 armed fighters.
The AUC and other paramilitary groups currently operate in about 30
percent of Colombia's territory and are actively expanding their presence.
The Colombian army has fewer than 30,000 combat-ready troops out of a
force of some 120,000 soldiers. The average Colombian soldier is underpaid
and outgunned when matched against the FARC or AUC forces.
The Pastrana government recently launched a plan to modernize the
Colombian armed forces. Several years will pass, however, before the plan
produces a professional force capable of restoring order.
Dark Future, Deadly Chain Reaction
Colombia's worsening civil conflict has severely weakened the economy. In
1999, the economy contracted more than 4 percent.
The economy will grow between 2 percent and 3 percent in 2000 thanks to
improved global conditions, but it will remain sluggish over the next three
years, growing about 2 percent annually on average.
Now the Colombian conflict has entered a dangerous new phase as a
result of the imminent arrival of the $1.3 billion U.S. military aid package
earmarked for Plan Colombia, a three-year, $7.5 billion scheme to eradicate
the illegal drug trade and end the civil war.
The military aid package will not wipe out the coca trade or end the
civil conflict between the government and the FARC, ELN and AUC
paramilitaries.
Instead, the aid package will fuel a technological upgrade in the
weaponry the FARC and AUC paramilitaries use, and significantly escalate the
tempo of hostilities as the FARC counters the anti-drug offensive in
southern Colombia with attacks in the north.
Increased FARC and ELN violence will trigger an escalation in
counteroffensives by paramilitary groups.
While the violence escalates, the peace talks will remain stalled and
the government divided. Relations between the government and military will
further deteriorate if Pastrana continues making concessions to the FARC and
ELN, and if the Colombian army's soon-to-deploy U.S.-trained anti-drug
battalions suffer heavy casualties in battles with the FARC in Putumayo and
other southern departments.
The Colombian conflict's growing intensity and the perception of
increasing U.S. military involvement will sap the economy's strength and
discourage investors.
Moreover, the combination of a weak economy, high unemployment,
widespread poverty and a society in which 97 percent of crimes go unpunished
will lead to significant increases in murder and kidnapping rates, making
many Colombian cities vastly more dangerous by 2003 than they are today.
Jack Sweeney is an analyst specializing in Latin American affairs for
Stratfor.com, an Internet provider of global intelligence.
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