_______ ____ ______ / |/ / /___/ / /_ // M I D - E A S T R E A L I T I E S / /|_/ / /_/_ / /\\ Making Sense of the Middle East /_/ /_/ /___/ /_/ \\� http://www.MiddleEast.Org News, Information, & Analysis That Governments, Interest Groups, and the Corporate Media Don't Want You To Know! * * * * * * * IF YOU DON'T GET MER, YOU JUST DON'T GET IT! To receive MER regularly email to [EMAIL PROTECTED] "When the agreement is signed, the Palestinians will declare an end of the conflict." "Arafat may find himself the most hated man in the Arab world." MID-EAST REALITIES � - www.MiddleEast.Org - Washington - 12/26: Most of the Israelis desperately want the "deal". That's because the so-called American "bridging proposals" from President Clinton really have the "made in Israel" stamp all over them. Most of the Palestinians do not want to "deal". Which is why there is not a single major Palestinian personality who has come out in favor of it. But they are confused, demoralized, besieged, and sold out from within as well as without. Yasser Arafat, trapped in his own political, financial, and political corruption, still may go for the "deal". Indeed, all pressures, bribes, and incentives, have been designed to get Arafat personally to cross the line and raise his pen and in one way or another give the Israelis more of the legitimacy they seek -- a deal that "ends the conflict" on Israeli terms and creates a rump Palestinian Statelet that is more Israeli than Palestinian in design and future. And by the way, it's more like 15%, not 95% -- more on this to come. And thus "The bottom line is now to wait and see if they rise to the bait" one senior "diplomat" (probably one of the Jewish Americans who make up an Israeli-selected American negotiating team) is quoted telling the Israeli media which published these two self-serving, but revealing, articles today: ISRAEL AWAITS ARAFAT'S ANSWER TO CLINTON By Herb Keinon JERUSALEM POST (December 26) - Israeli officials expressed cautious optimism yesterday about the likelihood that both Israel and the Palestinians will say "yes" to US ideas for moving the peace process forward, even as Palestinian Authority Chairman Yasser Arafat said upon returning from consultations in Egypt that he needs to "review" the issues. In an interview on Channel 2's Nissim Mishal last night, Prime Minister Ehud Barak said: "It will be very difficult to refuse to discuss [US President Bill] Clinton's proposals if the other side accepts them... That would exact of Israel too great an international price if everyone agrees - Arafat, Europe - and just we refuse." Nevertheless, Barak admitted the agreement will be "as difficult as hell for us emotionally." "We still have to thoroughly review the American suggestions," Arafat told reporters in the Gaza Strip after returning from a meeting with Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak. "There are a lot of obstacles." He said that the proposals were not significantly different from those made at Camp David in July. One Israeli source well acquainted with the negotiations said that, despite public comments by Palestinian leaders yesterday saying that the American ideas did not go far enough, the impression gleaned from the negotiators who sat with their Palestinian counterparts in Washington was that they would accept the proposals as a basis to continue negotiating. Arafat's comments were mild compared to those of Palestinian Legislative Council speaker Ahmed Qurei, who told Palestine Radio that Clinton's proposals don't answer the yearnings of the Palestinians. Qurei, who boycotted the Washington talks, said that wide gaps existed on all the issues: Jerusalem, the Temple Mount, settlements, refugees, and even overall security issues. West Bank Fatah leader Marwan Barghouti said that, although progress was made in Washington as a result of the pressure from the intifada, the Israeli concessions were not enough. "We can't sign this kind of agreement," he said in a Channel 1 interview. "The intifada will continue, and will be escalated in the next few weeks." Barak continued to consult with his aides yesterday on what was discussed in Washington , but it seemed certain that he would respond positively to the Clinton proposals. "The general feeling," said an official in Barak's office, "is that, with some reservations, these are proposals that could serve as a basis for further negotiations." One diplomatic officials said that, although it seems clear that Barak is willing to accept the US proposals, "there has not been any clarity on what the Palestinian think of the proposals. The bottom line is now to wait and see if they rise to the bait," he said. Barak is scheduled to convene his security cabinet tomorrow morning to discuss the proposals and decide whether to accept them. If both the Palestinians and the Israelis accept the proposal, an Israeli source said, the next move will be for Barak and Arafat to hold separate meetings with Clinton, possibly as early as the end of this week, in Washington. If those talks progress well, then a three-way summit to flesh out the final obstacles could be held the following week. Clinton has set January 10 as the final deadline for coming to an agreement under his watch. "We believe that a fair and workable agreement was outlined in Washington," a US diplomatic official said yesterday. "We expect responses by Wednesday." This statement, a clear indication that the US does not want to see any foot-dragging now, follows statements Barak made to his cabinet Sunday saying that the deadline is not immutable. There were also statements attributed to the Palestinian leadership yesterday calling for tomorrow's deadline to be pushed back. One diplomatic source said that time is very short, and that the deadline was set on the 10th because "Clinton also has other things to tend to before he leaves office" 10 days later. In addition, the source said, if Clinton continued to negotiate all the way up to the inauguration of Geroge W. Bush, it would appear as if he were reluctant to relinquish the reins of power. The basic contours of the US proposals are as follows: * Israel will relinquish 95 percent of the West Bank, and all of the Gaza Strip, to Palestinian control. Another 5 percent of land will be transferred to the Palestinians in the Halutza area in the Negev, adjoining the Gaza Strip. * Jerusalem will be divided, with the Palestinians receiving sovereignty over the Arab neighborhoods in east Jerusalem, and Israel over the Jewish neighborhoods. * The Palestinians will get sovereignty over the Temple Mount, with some kind of guarantees granted to Israel to ensure that the Palestinians do not dig underneath the mount, believed to hold the remnants of the First and Second Temples. The Western Wall, Jewish Quarter, and part of the Armenian Quarter will remain under Israeli control. * Palestinian refugees will be able to return to the new Palestinian state, but - except for humanitarian cases of family reunification - not to pre-1967 Israel. * Eighty percent of the settlements will be annexed to Israel in settlement blocs close to the Green Line, meaning that some 40 settlements in Gaza, Judea, and Samaria will have to be vacated. * When the agreement is signed, the Palestinians will declare an end of the conflict. Meanwhile, Foreign Minister Shlomo Ben-Ami yesterday spent much of the day talking to about a dozen of his counterparts in Europe, briefing them on the proposals and Israel's position. One diplomatic source said that he does not see any problem with Israel accepting the proposals, but is still not clear on how the Palestinians will answer Clinton. If they refuse, however, it will be clear to the international community that they are the ones who refused to rise to the occasion and take the bait, the source said. ---------- ARAFAT'S BIGGEST HEADACHE By Zvi Bar'el HA'ARETZ - Tuesday, December 26, 2000: Palestinian Chairman Yasser Arafat took advantage of his most recent visit to the Jordanian capital Amman to undergo a periodic examination by his doctor, Ashraf Al Kurdi, a neurologist of international renown. His doctor said his patient should rest more because he is under great stress. Arafat, 71, is not heeding his doctor's advice. Immediately following his visit to Amman, he flew to Bethlehem to participate in the Christmas celebrations, and then left for Cairo for a two-hour meeting with Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak. Arafat has good reason to be tense. He is facing one of the most difficult decisions in his life, and only he can make the choice. The right of return is propelling Arafat on a collision course, not just with his people, the refugees in the camps of the West Bank and Gaza, but also with the rest of the Arab states. As far as Arafat is concerned, this is a bigger problem than the issue of Jerusalem. Whereas he can bring diplomatic pressure from the Arab and Muslim world to bear on Israel and the U.S. on the Jerusalem question, the issue of the refugees is solely a Palestinian problem. Not a single Arab leader has demanded that Arafat not relinquish the right of return, nor was he ever chastised for his intentions to reach a compromise on the issue. Arab states, especially Jordan and Lebanon, fear that Arafat will reach an agreement with Israel, leaving nearly 2 million Palestinian refugees on their soil. Lebanon has already announced this week that it will not allow the question of the refugees to be solved at "the expense of the national rights of the Lebanese people." Jordan's prime minister made it clear, three months ago, that his country is unwilling to absorb any more Palestinian refugees. As far as they are concerned, the refugees can either move to Palestine, when it is established, or find a place in Europe, Australia or elsewhere. On the other hand, Arafat realizes that even if he gives up the right of return, he is in a bind. Assuming he manages to overcome domestic opposition, especially among the refugees in the territories, and even if he unilaterally declares an independent state, the minute such a state exists, the refugees will demand the right to be absorbed there. Certainly, the Arab states hosting them will be eager to point the way to the Palestinian state, their brotherly obligations completed. However, this is more than just a matter of ethical responsibility, because Arafat lacks the resources to meet the economic and social needs of the refugees. Jordan, Syria and Lebanon are wary of a possible popular Palestinian uprising, if these refugees realize they have nothing to go back to, no dream, no economic opportunity. Jordan is particularly worried that Palestinian refugees may be driven from Lebanon and Syria into its territory, the only direct link with the Palestinian state. In short, as one Jordanian commentator put it, "Arafat may find himself the most hated man in the Arab world." One possible solution is that Arafat could find a formula which releases Israel from the historical responsibility for the creation of the refugee problem, while presenting an appropriate compensation arrangement which will enable the Palestinian state to absorb and fund the rehabilitation of the refugees. Some have already suggested that Arafat adopt a similar stance to the one adopted by Israel toward Germany. However, that still leaves the obstacle of Israel's adamant refusal to accept any responsibility for the creation of the refugee problem. MiD-EasT RealitieS - www.MiddleEast.Org Phone: 202 362-5266 Fax: 815 366-0800 Email: [EMAIL PROTECTED] To subscribe email to [EMAIL PROTECTED] with subject SUBSCRIBE To unsubscribe email to [EMAIL PROTECTED] with subject UNSUBSCRIBE
