Because Charlie Cook has this week off, the National Journal Group brings you the latest edition of "On The Trail," by Hotline Editor Chuck Todd. "Off To The Races" will return next week. Please pass on the following URL to any friends or colleagues who may be interested in receiving Charlie's FREE weekly newsletter: http://nationaljournal.com/about/cookcolumn.htm -=-=-=-=-=-=-=- ON THE TRAIL O-Four! Among the many delays caused by the drawn-out election was the start of the 2004 presidential campaign. Normally, the first potential candidates begin to hit Iowa and New Hampshire just one month following the previous November election. Whether Gore is in or out, here is a look at the likely Dem favorites for WH 2004. Obviously, this election postponed those travels, but look for early ventures to these two states by prospecting Democrats in the first few months of next year. As for the prospective '04 field, it could be as large as any "open" field for the Democratic nod we've seen in the television era. And despite his bump from the concession speech, don't assume Al Gore is the field's 800-pound gorilla. Even if Gore is the perceived front-runner going into the primary season, all one needs to do is look at the GOP campaign of 2000 for evidence of a slew of ambitious pols unafraid of bulging poll numbers. But will Gore run? While history tells us that presidential candidates who come as close as Gore came to the White House usually run again, history may not be a good guide. There are already many questions as to whether the institutional support Gore had as VP this cycle will be there for him in '04. There are many activist Democrats who, while supportive of the VP in his Florida plight, also believe the election never should have been so close. These folks believe Gore should have won in a runaway. And if Gore does not have that institutional support, how motivated will he be to make another run? This last cycle, Gore was able to run using Air Force II and VP limos. Will he and Tipper really want to go back to flying commercial and riding in minivans? So while we don't completely write off Gore, we are not ready to hand him the nomination. And neither are a slew of Democrats. Let's look at the likely field: Dick Gephardt, D-Mo. -- Other than Gore and a certain Clinton spouse, there probably is not a better nationally known Democratic officeholder than Gephardt. As his one-time media consultant from Gephardt's '88 presidential race noted recently, there is no other Democrat who has been in more living rooms across this country than the House Democratic leader. And while it is too early to declare a front-runner for the nomination (due to the looming presence of Gore), Gephardt is probably the early "institutional" frontrunner. Should he succeed in winning back the House for Democrats in '02, Gephardt would easily have labor on his side, and as we've seen in Democratic primary fights of the past, labor can easily trump money or name recognition. Labor has compromised the last three presidential cycles, something they are probably getting tired of, so if Gephardt does run, look for labor to quickly second the candidacy. More importantly, Gephardt has another powerful ally, incoming DNC chair Terry McAuliffe. While McAuliffe has sworn allegiance to no one for '04, most insiders view him as an old Gephardt guy who would side with him. John Kerry, D-Mass. -- Blessed with the initials "JFK," the junior senator from Massachusetts appears to be in the mode of waking up every day and asking himself, "What can I do today that will help me become president?" Viewed by some as a lightweight early in his Senate career, Kerry has established himself as one of the leaders of his party. His standing with Democrats was drastically enhanced in '96 when he handily defeated then-GOP Gov. Bill Weld in Kerry's re-election bid. While he toyed with running this year, Kerry was smart enough to realize that Gore had too many institutional advantages to overcome. And though on style points Kerry could have upstaged Gore, he could never crack that air of inevitability. For 2004, however, it is a whole new ballgame. Should Gephardt end up as the party's institutional front-runner (a la George W. Bush in 2000), look for Vietnam Vet Kerry to play the part of John McCain. One ace in the hole Kerry has that McCain did not: his wife, Teresa Heinz, and her multi-million dollar ketchup fortune. Should he decide to forego the fund-raising route and fund his own campaign, it could be hard to stop Kerry. Gray Davis, D-Calif. -- Priority No. 1 for the party's most powerful gov? Take care of California's energy crisis, which is leaving some residents in the dark -- on purpose -- some days. The Golden State is currently feeling the pains of utility deregulation. We can picture the '02 ads now against Davis: a flashing "12:00" on a VCR clock with a voice-over: "Are you tired of re-setting your clock due to unscheduled brown-outs?" The good news for Davis is that this crisis is occurring nearly two years before November '02. Should he successfully solve this problem, it may give him a platform to promote his abilities, at least on energy issues. Still, running for president as a sitting governor is never easy, and unless he's the heir to the nomination (like Bush), Davis may end up finding the dual duties too much to handle. Dan Schnur, the former communications strategist for the last California governor (Pete Wilson) to run for president, said it best: It is hard to run the state of California while changing planes at O'Hare. His remark was referring to the lack of non-stop flights from Sacramento to Manchester. Joe Lieberman, D-Conn. -- One thing Lieberman proved to be on the campaign trail this cycle was loyal. According to many insider accounts of the post-November election mess, Lieberman was just as strident as Gore when it came to pushing ahead with the legal battle. This sense of loyalty to Gore probably also means Lieberman would not run in '04 if Gore did. But if Gore's out of the picture, then Lieberman can easily find a place in the race, especially because of his close ties to the DLC, which will be looking for its own horse in '04 should labor fall lock-step behind Gephardt. Hillary Rodham Clinton, D-N.Y. -- While we would like to take Mrs. Clinton at her word that she has no intention of running for president in '04, she obviously needs to make a more definitive statement to get the political media to believe her. If she's not running in '04, she needs to be Shermanesque about it, period. Anything short will be viewed -- by the most cynical -- as less than straight. We do believe that if she is leaving herself an opening to run in '04, she's making a mistake. It could be a primary bloodbath if she's part of a 4- or 5-person Democratic field. And the media hit she would take nationally for breaking her no-'04 pledge to New Yorkers could be debilitating. But before we receive a barrage of emails about her husband breaking a no-'92 pledge in his '90 governor's race, we would like to remind folks that the Bill Clinton of '92 was not nearly the political figure that Mrs. Clinton is now. Bill Bradley -- Every indication we get is that Bradley has no interest in making another run. But should he decide to enter the race, he will have to be taken seriously. Anyone capable of taking a sitting VP to the brink of a nomination fight is formidable. That said, Bradley's campaign in '00 was unique in that it was geared toward running against the establishment of the party. For '04, there probably won't be an "establishment" to run against, and Bradley may not stand out so much while sharing the stage with five to six other formidable candidates. Bob Kerrey -- The Nebraska senator is on his way to becoming president of the New School University in New York City. Although he is presumed likely to flirt with a bid in '04, will he really end up running? Would the New School have hired Kerrey if they thought his fund-raising time would be split between his day job and his night dream? Of course, considering that he his older and wiser from his last run and has a deep fund-raising base from his DSCC days, Kerrey could not be overlooked as a major contender should he decide to run. The above eight Democrats are the biggest potential '04 players. But like any open race for a nomination, lesser-known Democrats will be attracted to the idea of running. Among the list: John Edwards, D-N.C. -- Up for Senate re-election in '04; Any flirtations are likely to be viewed as running for VP. Evan Bayh, D-Ind. -- See above note about Edwards. Tom Vilsack, D-Iowa -- Young, small-state governors have succeeded before Jeanne Shaheen, D-N.H. -- If not Hillary, why not Shaheen as the lone woman in the field? Tom Daschle, D-S.D. -- We're always surprised he's never higher on other '04 speculation lists. Paul Wellstone, D-Minn. -- Somebody needs to pick up Eugene McCarthy's mantle. Joe Biden, D-Del. -- He's a lot more serious about running than the national press corps believes. Jesse Jackson, D-D.C. -- Can never be discounted in big-state primaries. Dick Durbin, D.Ill. -- No large-state senator should be discounted. Southern governor to be named later. Out of Jim Hodges of South Carolina, Mike Easley (governor-elect) of North Carolina, Don Siegelman of Alabama, Ronnie Musgrove of Mississippi and Roy Barnes of Georgia, one will wake up one morning in 2003 and see a president. Chuck Todd ************************************ To stop receiving this E-mail Alert: Reply to this message and include the word "unsubscribe" (without quotes) in the BODY of the message. Charlie Cook's "Off To The Races" is published each Tuesday by National Journal Group Inc. For more information about National Journal Group's publications, go to http://www.nationaljournal.com/about/ ************************************ Want To See More From National Journal? To purchase temporary access to Hotline Weekly, The Almanac of American Politics, or the entire NationalJournal.com Web site, go to: http://nationaljournal.com/qpass/
