-Caveat Lector-

>From The Cincinnati Post,
http://www.cincypost.com/opinion/mcfeat122900.html
-
Warning: future appears turbulent
Column by Dale McFeatters

The top seers and swamis at the World Future Society have squinted over
the horizon and come up with a forecast of what's in store for us in the
coming decade, century and millennium. It is not a pretty sight.

For a start, it's good-bye to Socks and Buddy. And maybe good-bye to us.
Intelligent robot pets will be common by 2005 and outnumber ''organic
pets'' by 2020.

Their owners might not be real, either. ''Virtual assistants'' will
start replacing executive secretaries in 2007, and by 2020 we'll be
sharing the planet with synthetic intelligent life forms that will have
legal rights, meaning that as lawsuits become ever more creative and
pervasive you might be sued by your virtual cat.

But there's new hope for medieval French lit majors. A liberal arts
degree will be more valuable than a specialized education because
technology will change so fast than no sooner is a technical skill
mastered than it's obsolete.

While the college degree is nice, it will probably be from Rec Room U.
Home schooling will lead to a home-college movement and 50 percent of
private colleges and 10 percent of public colleges will close because so
many students are staying home to study online.

But the new jobs will be fun, fun, fun. Thanks to improved productivity
and longer lifespans, people will have more free time - where have we
heard that one before - and thus leisure-oriented businesses - think
21st-century amusement parks - will dominate the world economy and
account for half of U.S. GDP by 2015.

President Clinton was wrong when he said most workers will change jobs
six or seven times in a career. The futurists say most workers will stay
with a single company throughout their working lives. Companies will not
so much hire workers as adopt them.

Most baby boomers will keep working after they retire - they'll have to
because of inadequate pensions and Social Security.

But help is on the way. The ''echo boomers,'' the 80 million Americans
born from 1977 to 1997, will be a far more money-savvy generation, flush
with cash and economic clout. That's good because if the futurists are
right, they'll be supporting their parents.

The generation that follows may be a faint echo indeed. More people will
elect to remain single and postpone having children who will be mostly
girls when they do have them.

But there's no rush because medical advances will allow women to delay
menopause until 70. That means people in their 80s will be raising
teenage daughters, which goes a long way toward explaining the next
prediction.

Mental illness will reach epidemic proportions as the population ages.

But no less a person than Sir Arthur Clarke says that electronic
monitoring will eliminate professional criminals from society by 2010.

That would still leave us at the mercy of random pyschos and disgruntled
day traders and software testers.

Specially bred bacteria will extract oil reserves that cannot now be
tapped through conventional methods, but in 50 years we won't need the
oil anyway because thermonuclear fusion will provide us with unlimited,
cheap energy in the form of hydrogen.

Nobody has said what happens when the bugs run out of oil and start
heading our way. Perhaps nothing because we might not even be here.

Humans will land on Mars in 2022, opening the way for colonization, and
on Halley's Comet in 2061, where we will discover both active and
dormant life forms.

That's important because by the year 3000 most economic activity will be
in outer space and it would be good to have a ready-made customer base
already there.

There's the future for you. Don't say you weren't warned.

It may not be too late to turn back.

Dale McFeatters is a columnist for Scripps Howard News Service.
Publication date: 12-29-00

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