___________________________________________________________________ S T R A T F O R . c o m THE INTERNET SOURCE FOR GLOBAL INTELLIGENCE http://www.stratfor.com ___________________________________________________________________ 31 December 2000 THE GLOBAL INTELLIGENCE UPDATE -> FREE TODAY IN THIS NEWSLETTER AND ON OUR WEBSITE: * Shifting Europe's Power Balance http://www.stratfor.com/home/giu/DAILY.asp -> ON OUR WEBSITE TODAY FOR MEMBERS ONLY: * Pakistan's Balancing Act to Reform Its Economy http://www.stratfor.com/asia/commentary/0012271945 * AES Corp.'s Powerful Plan for Latin America http://www.stratfor.com/latinamerica/commentary/0012271915 * Karimov's Crackdown May Fortify Radical Force http://www.stratfor.com/CIS/commentary/0012272015 ___________________________________________________________________ Summary Russia and Germany are considering converting a large chunk of Russia's $14 billion debt to Germany into equity stakes in Russian companies, which would make Germany a major shareholder in Russian industry. The deal will represent an important move in forging a close geopolitical partnership between Germany and Russia. This may help Russia's revival, and Germany could emerge as the leader of a united Europe with Russia on its side. Such a development would significantly weaken U.S. influence in Europe while dramatically strengthening Germany and Russia and helping them to advance to the front stage of world geopolitics. Analysis Germany and Russia are forging an economic deal that, if it succeeds, may shift the balance of European power. Werner Muller, German economic minister, and German Gref, Russian minister of economic development and trade, met in Berlin Dec. 12 to debate details of a plan to exchange Russian debt for German equity in Russian companies. The two sides have agreed in principle to swap a large share of Russia's $14 billion debt, The Times reported Dec. 13. One option they are considering is giving to Germany a significantly larger share in Gazprom, Russia's gigantic gas export monopoly. Germany's Ruhrgas now holds 4 percent. Obtaining several billion dollars worth of stakes in Russian enterprises would make Germany a major shareholder in Russian industry, giving Berlin a stronger voice in Moscow. In addition, it would further tie Berlin's interests to economic and political stability in Russia. Russia already supplies about 35 percent of Germany's gas needs. *********** TO READ THE REST OF THIS ARTICLE CLICK HERE:*********** http://www.stratfor.com/home/giu/DAILY.asp#Moscow ___________________________________________________________________ <<<<<<<<<<<<<< SUBSCRIBE TO BECOME A MEMBER TODAY!>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> Stratfor.com introduces new, expanded analysis for readers seeking more insight on the entire range of global affairs. Our new site features more intelligence on more subjects, easier navigation and expanded coverage. What New Members Say About Stratfor.com: "I was happy to pay the new subscription charge for continued access to your material given the high quality...In fact, I've quoted you several times in a report recently published by (my consulting firm)." D.A. "I teach geography and international relations at the college level. Your site is one of the most excellent resources for students and teachers alike. My compliments on the site." J.B. "I subscribe to numerous publications including the Economist, the National Interest and Foreign Affairs, and yet not one provides cogent analysis of today's events as well as you do." M.U. http://www.stratfor.com/COMPANY/subscribepromo.asp <<<<<<<<<<<<<< SUBSCRIBE TO BECOME A MEMBER TODAY!>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> =================================================================== SIGN-UP: Get the free, daily Global Intelligence Update: http://www.stratfor.com/home/giu/subscribe.asp You can stop receiving the GIU by clicking on: http://www.stratfor.com/home/giu/unsub.asp CONTACTS AND CUSTOMER SERVICES: STRATFOR.com 504 Lavaca, Suite 1100 Austin, TX 78701 Phone: 512-583-5000 Internet: http://www.stratfor.com/ Email: [EMAIL PROTECTED] ADVERTISE For information on advertising in the GIU or any section of the Stratfor.com website, please email us at [EMAIL PROTECTED] ==================================================== (c) 2000 Stratfor, Inc.
