-Caveat Lector-

http://www.sunday-
times.co.uk/news/pages/sti/2000/12/31/stifgnusa02006.html

December 31 2000
UNITED STATES

Bush to pull US troops out of Balkans
Tom Rhodes,  New York

IN A MOVE certain to upset his European allies, George W Bush
plans to begin withdrawing American peacekeepers from the
Balkans shortly after he moves into the White House next month.

Senior advisers to the Republican president-elect have told The
Sunday Times that America will have removed all 10,000 of its
ground troops from Bosnia and Kosovo within four years, leaving
only logistical and intelligence teams behind.

John Hulsman, a conservative analyst tapped as a Balkans adviser
for the new administration, said Bush was concerned about
"imperial overstretch" - a buzzword within the new national security
team for America's involvement in "nation building" abroad during
the presidency of Bill Clinton.

"There will be a philosophical sea change when Bush is in the
White House," Hulsman said. "As soon as he arrives, there will be
a drawing down of American forces and after four years there will
be no American ground troops in the Balkans."

Hulsman, who works at the Heritage Foundation, a conservative
think tank in Washington, advised the president-elect on Balkans
policy during his campaign for the White House. He said there was
growing scepticism inside the Bush camp about humanitarian
missions that were not in the American national interest.

Richard Perle, a former assistant defence secretary under
President Ronald Reagan and an even more senior adviser to
Bush, said questions were being asked about America's true role
in the region.

Perle said incoming members of the national security team,
including Condoleezza Rice, General Colin Powell, the next
secretary of state, and Donald Rumsfeld, appointed last week as
defence secretary, were unhappy with some of the tasks being
given to fighting troops in the field.

Some in the 82nd Airborne, the crack parachute division, for
example, had been acting as kindergarten escorts and social
workers. "I think they will look at what the soldiers are spending
their time doing and whether that is appropriate for American
troops," he said.

Perle insisted any pullout would not take place without consultation
with allies. He speculated that German forces might shoulder the
brunt of future regional responsibilities.

The first hint of a withdrawal came in October, shortly before the
American election, when Rice spoke of a "new division of labour" in
the Balkans, requiring Europeans to "step up to their
responsibilities".

Lord Robertson, the Nato secretary-general, telephoned the Bush
camp shortly afterwards and said he had been assured by the
Republican's advisers that no such move was afoot.

Powell said after his nomination earlier this month, however, that
he would undertake a review of all deployments soon after Bush's
inauguration on January 20.

"We're going to consult to see if we can find ways that are less of a
burden," he said of the missions in Kosovo and Bosnia. "We're not
cutting and running."

For all the talk of consultation and reviews, plans are already being
drafted to begin part of the withdrawal shortly after Bush enters the
White House.

Hulsman said the first of the 5,500 troops in Kosovo and 4,500 in
Bosnia could be brought home within months in what would be a
symbolic change of policy in Washington.

Under one proposal, the new administration would inform Nato at
the end of next month that its eventual goal was to turn over entire
responsibility for peacekeeping troops to its European allies.
America would agree to provide continued but limited logistical and
intelligence assistance to the Nato mission in the Balkans.

The proposal can only add to fears among allies already anxious
about the implications of a Bush presidency for European security.
Concerns centre on the president-elect's determination to build a
"son of star wars" missile defence system.

Bush has said he wants a system that would include America's
allies. Britain and other countries are worried it could have a
destabilising effect by violating the 1972 US-Soviet anti-ballistic
missile treaty, under which both sides agreed limits to defensive
shields.

Bush's resolve to press ahead with the project has been confirmed
by the appointment of Rumsfeld, who oversaw a commission two
years ago that concluded that rogue nations could threaten
America with ballistic missiles sooner than analysts predicted.

The Foreign Office yesterday declined to comment on any likely
changes in American Balkan policy. One British diplomat in the
region warned, however, that even if Bush wanted a significant
drawdown of troops it would be difficult to win the approval of his
Nato partners. "We've always thought the American role is
essential," he said.

In France opinion on American involvement has always been more
divided, with many military officers opposed to Washington's
dominant influence in peacekeeping. "There's always been strong
resistance to Americans in the Nato command," said one diplomat.
"But the irony is that our officers don't want to do peacekeeping on
their own in the Balkans, especially after the disasters with the UN
in Bosnia."

Both diplomats agreed that any likely downsizing would first come
in Bosnia, where Nato is debating changing the current
stabilisation force, or SFor, into DFor, or deterrence force. One
solution proposed by Jacques Klein, the American head of the UN
in Bosnia, is to diminish Washington's role in the military side of
reconstruction in the Balkans, while enhancing its role in civilian
structures.

Bush's plans have also prompted concern within the White House.
American forces stationed in the Balkans have already been
depleted since 25,000 were sent to bolster the Dayton peace
accord for Bosnia in 1995. The outgoing Clinton administration
warned last week any further withdrawals could undermine relations
between America and its European allies, such as Britain.

Jake Siewert, the White House press secretary, said the decision
made by officials during Bush's father's presidency not to intervene
in the Balkans had allowed Slobodan Milosevic, the former
Yugoslav leader, to begin the conflict.

"When they said, 'We don't have a dog in that fight,' it was a green
light for Milosevic," he said. "Now it looks like Bush's son is
planning to do the same."

Copyright 2000 Times Newspapers Ltd.


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