After Saddam, who will take power in Iraq?
http://www.janes.com/security/regional_security/news/jir/jir010104_1_n.shtml
By Sean Boyne
An unconfirmed report that Iraqi leader Saddam Hussein suffered a stroke
while observing a military parade in Baghdad on 31 December has focused
attention once more on what would happen if he dies or becomes physically
incapacitated -- even though claims that Saddam is seriously ill have long
been denied by Iraq.
The most likely scenario is that the Iraqi leader would be succeeded by his
mercurial younger son Qusay, who heads Iraq's elaborate security apparatus.
However, Saddam's other son Uday, who was partially disabled after being shot
in an assassination attempt in 1996, is also considered to be hungry for
power. There are others -- relatives of Saddam or belonging to his inner
circle -- who, it is thought, would also seek to take the top job if the
opportunity arose.
Developments in Baghdad are being closely monitored by the Iraqi opposition.
Dissidents hope that the death or serious illness of Saddam could trigger a
violent struggle for power among those presently close to the leader. Their
hope is that the ensuing instability would in turn encourage a coup by senior
military officers that would mark the end of the Saddam dynasty. A military
coup is what the US Central Intelligence Agency has sought to foment in
Baghdad.
The problem with this scenario is that the regime may already have taken
steps to ensure that there is a relatively smooth hand-over of power when
Saddam bows out. On 14 April the newspaper Al-Watan Al-Arabi published a
report claiming that Saddam had held a meeting of those closest to him and
that he had decreed that Qusay was to be his successor. According to the
story, those present included Uday; Saddam's powerful secretary, Abd Hamid
Mahmoud; Saddam's cousin and main 'enforcer', the ruthless Ali Hassan Majid;
and three tribal leaders from Saddam's home area of Tikrit. It was reported
that they all declared their allegiance to Saddam's chosen successor.
It has been believed for some time that Saddam, now 63, has had health
problems. Last September there was an unconfirmed report that he was
suffering from lymphatic cancer and that he had appointed a family council
under Qusay to run the nation's affairs if he became incapacitated. A report
in the London-based newspaper Al-Sharq Al-Awsat claimed that among those
attending the family meeting that set up the council were Saddam's three
half-brothers, Barzan, Watban and Sab'awi. The newspaper also said that a
special security committee headed by Abd Hamid Mahmoud had decided that only
non-Iraqi doctors should treat Saddam.
Barzan and his brothers were effectively sidelined by Saddam so that his own
sons would have an unimpeded rise to power. Sources say that Barzan, who was
recalled in 1999 from his post as Iraq's ambassador to the UN in Geneva,
deeply resents his treatment and that he may well be a contender to succeed
Saddam, although he may lack the power base from which to launch an effective
challenge. It is believed that Ali Hassan Majid, who led the bloody 'Anfal'
campaign against the Kurds in the late 1980s, would also like to be leader,
but would settle for a position of power under Qusay.
In a recent interview for Jane's, Dr Salah Shaikhly of the Iraqi National
Congress (INC), the opposition umbrella group, said he believed it was most
likely that the regime had drawn up plans to ensure that Qusay took over the
reins of power when Saddam died or stepped down. "It is not something they
would leave to chance," he said. Nevertheless, he believed that the departure
of Saddam could spark an inter-family feud over the succession and that this
could de-stabilise the regime, providing an opportunity for the army to take
power.
Dr Hamid Al-Bayati, of the Iraqi dissident movement the Supreme Council for
the Islamic Revolution in Iraq (SCIRI), also expressed the view in a recent
Jane's interview that the demise of Saddam could produce considerable
disorder at the top. "When Saddam dies, there will be in-fighting," he
predicted. "There could be feuding involving the two sons and Saddam's
half-brothers."
Meanwhile, the Sunni-dominated regime faces resentment from many other
elements who would be only too glad to see Saddam and his cronies lose their
vice-like grip on power. The Shias in the south and the Kurds in the north
have bitter memories of Saddam's repression. There is believed to be unrest
among senior army officers and even among some of the Sunni tribal leaders on
whom Saddam traditionally relied for support as a result of seeing friends,
comrades and relatives executed by a paranoid regime. There is thought to be
deep resentment even among Saddam's paternal cousins' family, the Majids,
following the brutal murder of returned defector Hussein Kamil (Saddam's
son-in-law) and other family members at Saddam's behest. There is also
widespread discontent over the effects of sanctions. The regime thus has many
enemies at home and abroad who would like nothing better than to see the
final downfall of Saddam's dynasty.
