-Caveat Lector-
If Americans or the citizens of other countries allow the militarization of
space by ANYONE, they will have condemned their children to a lifetime of fear
worse than the MAD experience of those who grew up during the Cold War.
SPACE MUST NOT BE ALLOWED TO BE MILITARIZED!!! BY ANYONE!!!
Nurev
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Escalating Space Race
05 January 2001
Summary
The global economy�s growing
dependence on space technology is
reigniting the debate over the
military's function in space,
particularly its role in denying
enemies the ability to use the
ultimate high ground for nefarious
purposes. Stimulated by the new
political leadership emerging in the
United States, the escalating space
race will turn the final frontier into a
new battleground in the 21st century.
View of a globular star cluster in Milky Way
galaxy taken by the Hubble Space Telescope.
Analysis
On Jan. 11 the Commission to Assess U.S. National Security Space
Management and Organization is to release its findings after more than a
year of study. Established by members of Congress concerned that
preparations for the space age are inadequate, the commission has the
potential to forcefully and immediately impact American policy.
The commission was led by Donald Rumsfeld, President-elect George W.
Bush�s nominee for secretary of defense, who has pledged to make the
�defense of space assets� a top priority. The commission will find the new
U.S. administration highly receptive to accelerating the space race with
military projects and government-assisted programs for civilian purposes.
The trend toward a larger international presence in space, and the
associated risks that come with heavy reliance on space systems, has
moved the United States closer than ever � both politically and
technologically � to crossing the boundary between using space to support
military operations and making space a combat zone. The incoming U.S.
administration, and its unfolding world view, will run right up against this
sacrosanct boundary in international relations and may even cross it,
irreversibly altering the strategic landscape.
Reliance on space for communications, navigation, reconnaissance, weather
prediction and a host of other disciplines is growing by leaps and bounds,
fueling billions of dollars in investment around the world � $100 billion in
investment by the United States alone. At least 1,500 new satellites will be
launched internationally over the next decade to add to the estimated 600
now in orbit.
Many advances in space technology are now being spearheaded outside
the United States. The United States has developed only one new booster
rocket in the last 20 years, while Russia has developed and tested more
than 140. In other areas, such as the satellite surveillance and space
exploration, countries like Russia, China, Japan and India are doing a good
job of keeping pace with the United States.
China, for example, plans this year to place a human in orbit for the first
time and recently launched a high-resolution commercial imaging satellite.
Japan, meanwhile, has embarked on a satellite reconnaissance program of
its own that will give its military greater autonomy from the United States.
This highly competitive environment in the space industry has coincided with
� and at the same time fueled � growing American military anxiety that new
technologies becoming widely available will seriously endanger space
operations.
This includes anti-satellite laser weapons and new computer tools to disrupt
or corrupt satellite data. Russia is believed to have developed anti-satellite
weapons, while China is said to be aggressively pursuing them. The United
States will redouble its efforts to develop anti-satellite weapons as Russia
and China�s space programs grow.
�Protecting our ability to launch and operate satellites � and denying an
enemy the same ability � could be pivotal to the success of future U.S.
military operations,� according to the U.S. Space Command mission
statement. �The increasing reliance of joint forces on space means we must
achieve space superiority in times of conflict. Likewise, we must be able to
preserve civil and commercial access to space.�
The space commission�s report is likely to call for enhancing satellite
defenses and space control capabilities. It may call for renewed testing of
the Mid Range Advanced Chemical Laser, a ground-based anti-satellite
weapon that has not been tested in several years. When tested in 1997,
domestic and foreign criticism was widespread. Russian President Boris
Yeltsin personally intervened to try and stop the tests, warning against the
danger of weaponizing space.
The commission will probably also recommend some structural changes
within the military, including tapping the Air Force as the �executive agent�
for space operations. The commission had even considered establishing a
separate Space Force or Space Corps of 30,000 troops, but that proposal
appears to have been shelved as too controversial.
The commission is less likely to recommend deploying offensive weapons in
space, but some concrete steps in that direction will at least be on the table
as Rumsfeld moves into his Pentagon office.
One of these steps might be to accelerate research on a so-called Space
Based Laser. The Pentagon recently cut a check for a $100 million to
conduct a flight test of a subscale vehicle designed to house a
high-powered laser to attack missiles and other targets from space.
The 1972 Anti-Ballistic Missile Treaty prohibits the United States from
deploying laser weapons in space; however, Bush has said he will either
change or scrap the treaty with Russia to deploy the proposed nationwide
missile shield. Bush has also pledged to develop a more comprehensive
missile defense, possibly including weapons deployed in space.
Specifics aside, what is clear is that the Bush national security team will
have an early blueprint, provided by one of its most veteran and influential
members, for how the military should proceed in outer space. And the
watchwords of the blueprint will no doubt include space �control� and
�dominance.�
The weaponization of space may be inevitable. However, fierce international
competition in commercial and military space ventures, combined with a U.S.
administration seeking to prevail over all other comers, is placing the space
race on a collision course with the point of no return: warfare in space.
With a secretary of defense intellectually inclined to up the ante in space,
the United States is set to preside over the countdown and possibly the
blastoff.
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