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Analysis: Putin's Russia must be taken seriously
Sunday, 14 January 2001 20:48 (ET)
Analysis: Putin's Russia must be taken seriouslyBy MARTIN WALKER, UPI Chief
International Correspondent(This is the sixth in a series examining major
world issues.)WASHINGTON, Jan. 14 (UPI) -- The incoming Bush administration
faces aRussia that is being re-invented from the Kremlin as a centralized
andincreasingly authoritarian state that must once again be taken seriously
inworld affairs, and whose pro-Western orientation can never be taken
forgranted.This is an achievement of Russia's new president, Vladimir Putin,
and itis all the more striking because there is so little objective reason
for hissuccess beyond an improved economy that is principally the result of
higherenergy prices, and a firm new grip on domestic politics. After
intimidatingthe independent Russian media by targeting some owners, and
strippingregional governors of key powers, the former KGB colonel has now
cast outstrong hints that it is time for the old Soviet-era KGB to be
revived.One of the key reforms of Boris Yeltsin's rule was to abolish the old
KGBand divide its functions into separate bodies like overseas
intelligence,now called the FSB; electronic intelligence, now called the
GovernmentCommunications Service; and counter-espionage, now the federal
securityservice. Putin's old friend and KGB colleague, Sergei Ivanov, who now
runsthe Kremlin's Security Council, is now proposing to reunite them,
accordingto reports this week in Moscow's Sevodnya newspaper.Whether or not
the KGB is revived -- like the old Soviet national anthem-- this combination
of centralizing more power within the Kremlin, and anopen nostalgia for the
old days when the Soviet Union was treated withrespect by the West, is
entirely characteristic of Putin's rule.Putin's skill has been to maximize
Russia's international irritationvalue, despite its hollow army and its
obsolete industrial base. But hisbiggest weakness is a demographic nightmare
that on current birth and deathrates could slash its population from 147
million to below 90 million overthe next three decades, according to a new
study by Russia's Academy ofSciences.Putin astutely has exploited Russia's
geographic position at the heart ofEurasia, identifying pressure points where
Russian actions resonate acrossthe globe. On his European border, indications
that tactical nuclear weaponsare being reintroduced to the Baltic Sea coast
have startled the Pentagonand jolted the Europeans. In the Caucasus, turning
off the energy pipelineshas reminded the former Soviet republic of Georgia
that its independence isconstrained. And a spate of new arms sales to Iran,
India and China havereminded the United States that in armaments, at least,
the Russian economystill produces world-class products.For the moment, it
seems that Putin's use of these pressure points isaimed as much at restoring
Russian pride and bolstering his own highdomestic popularity, as at reminding
the West that Russia retains some keyattributes of a great power. The main
thrust of his policies, throughcontinued cooperation in the Balkans, the goal
of joining the World TradeOrganization and his studious courtship of the
European Union, would seem toalign Russia's future with the West.But Putin's
precise definition of that "West" remains carefully loose. Hehas proved adept
at exploiting the divisions between the United States andits European allies
over American plans to deploy an anti-ballistic missilesystem, and will
doubtless repeat the trick over the prospect of bringingthe Baltic states
into the NATO alliance. And despite his rattling thenuclear saber in the
Baltic, the Europeans broadly support Putin's goal ofstabilizing Russia and
reforming it."We have good Russian economic development, a Russian president
with goodpopular support, a Russian administration gaining more and more
inlegitimacy," Swedish premier Goran Persson noted last week, as he
assumedthe rotating presidency of the 15-nation EU. "We must use this period
ofRussian recovery to build a much closer relationship with the
EuropeanUnion."There are indeed some signs of a Russian recovery, beyond a
healthy tradesurplus from oil exports. Incomes are rising across the country.
Of Russia's89 administrative regions, the number where average residents earn
less thansubsistence incomes dropped from 41 in 1999 to just 16 last year,
accordingto a study released this week by the Labor Ministry's All-Russian
Center ofLiving Standards. Arrears of pay and pensions have been largely paid
off,and the economic reform architect German Gref hopes for "dramatic
results"from the new 13 per cent flat tax rate.The problem is that wealthy
Russians have so little confidence in theireconomy that they continue to send
their money abroad. Russia's capitalflight totaled $24.6 billion last year,
up almost 30 per cent from theprevious year, Mikhail Delyagin, director of
the Russian institute for theproblems of globalization, reported yesterday.
The volume of capitalunofficially leaving Russia was almost 10 per cent
higher in 2000 than the$22.5 billion in pre-crisis 1997. It was just 3.5 per
cent under thecatastrophic $25 billion level of 1998, when Russia was forced
to default onits international loans and the ruble collapsed.During the
course of the next four years of the Bush presidency, it willbecome clear
whether the Russian economic recovery is an oil-fueled flash inthe pan or a
lasting improvement. If the Russian economy languishes at itscurrent level --
roughly equivalent to the GDP of tiny Holland -- the Bushadministration is
unlikely to be impressed, and even less likely to helpPutin restore his
country to international respect. For the moment, someBush advisers are
beginning to dismiss Russia as a near-bankrupt rogue statewith missiles,
which could be dangerous for White House and Kremlin alike.
