-Caveat Lector- WJPBR Email News List [EMAIL PROTECTED] Peace at any cost is a Prelude to War! China Beefing Up Air Defenses Opposite Taiwan 16 January 2001 Summary China is beefing up its coastal air defenses opposite Taiwan to help tip the military balance in the Taiwan Straits in Beijing’s favor. If a permanent air defense missile base materializes, Taipei and Washington are likely to consider it an escalation, sparking a new round of confrontation. Analysis The United Daily News, a Taiwanese publication, reported Jan. 15 that China is building a new missile base in the southeastern city of Zhangzhou. Beijing plans to deploy Russian-made S-300 surface-to-air missile systems on the base and in the future could introduce more advanced air defense missiles. By enhancing its ability to defend its coastal military installations from Taiwan’s superior air force, China would improve its chances of prevailing in a military conflict over control of the former Chinese territory. Such a plan by Beijing is likely to backfire, however, by prompting Taipei and its sponsors in Washington to take a harder line in the Taiwan Straits. China has deployed the transportable S-300 air defense system across from Taiwan in the past, provoking tensions. China moved several batteries from Beijing to both Zhangzhou and the city of Fuzhou further to the north during 1996 military maneuvers. Placed at Zhangzhou, the S-300, with a range of up to 200 kilometers, would provide China with a defensive barrier along its coast extending out to Taiwan’s Penghu island group. Deployed in Fuzhou, the S-300 could defeat aircraft as far out as Hsinchu on Taiwan’s western coast. Left image shows an SA-10B TEL in the vertical position and right depicts a missile being fired. In addition to China’s inventory of an estimated 120 S-300 missiles, the new base under construction at Zhangzhou could also be used in the future for the deployment of the FT-2000 surface-to-air missile system. The FT-2000 is an enhanced version of the Russian-made S-300 developed in China with greater targeting capabilities, longer range and capable of defeating not only Taiwan’s U.S.-made F-16 fighter jets but its airborne early warning and control (AWACs) aircraft as well. A permanent missile base and the regular deployment of S-300s across from Taiwan would be another in a series of recent attempts by Beijing to improve its military capabilities vis-� -vis Taipei. Beijing has already deployed hundreds of surface-to-surface missiles along the coast, and the U.S. Department of Defense estimates China is adding 50 missiles each year. However, the air defense base is especially significant because it threatens Taiwan’s primary advantage over China – air superiority. Most military experts agree that the current Chinese armed forces could not successfully invade Taiwan. Though it might be able to blockade the island, Taiwan’s air force is Taipei’s best weapon – aside from the United States – in fending off a Chinese invasion. A move by Beijing that threatens Taiwan’s advantage in the sky is sure to get immediate attention in Washington, which dispatched two aircraft carriers into the Taiwan Straits in 1996 when China launched major military maneuvers during Taiwan’s elections, including live missile tests. U.S. President-elect George W. Bush is already expected to take a tougher security stance on Beijing, pledging during the campaign to improve Taiwan’s military preparedness. Bush is also more disposed than his soon-to-be predecessor, Bill Clinton, to transferring advanced weaponry to Taipei over Chinese objections. In considering an extensive arms request from Taiwan last year, Washington cautiously deflected the issue for fear of antagonizing Beijing, a vocal opponent of arms sales and independence for Taiwan, which Beijing considers a breakaway province However, a Bush Administration, induced by what it views as a Chinese escalation in the Taiwan Straits and supported by the influential Taiwan lobby in the U.S. Congress, could move swiftly to approve the arms transfer, including top-of-the-line Aegis class destroyers. Taiwan plans to bring up the issue of arms sales early in the Bush Administration, seizing on what it sees as a more responsive political environment. But continued Chinese attempts to improve its odds in an invasion of Taiwan may make Bush’s decision for him. If Beijing alters the military balance in the Taiwan Straits it will get a swift response from an increasingly hard-line government in Washington, including the transfer of high-tech arms to Taiwan to keep Chinese military advancements in check. As China seeks to solidify its military position in the Taiwan Straits, it risks picking a fight with Washington that could ignite another crisis in the Taiwan Straits and push Taiwan further from Beijing’s grasp. *COPYRIGHT NOTICE** In accordance with Title 17 U. S. C. Section 107, any copyrighted work in this message is distributed under fair use without profit or payment to those who have expressed a prior interest in receiving the included information for nonprofit research and educational purposes only.[Ref. http://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/17/107.shtml ] Want to be on our lists? 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