-Caveat Lector-
Urgent warning on global warming
<http://news.ft.com/ft/gx.cgi/ftc?pagename=View&c=Article&cid=FT3E6B769IC&live=true&tagid=ZZZC19QUA0C&subheading=asia%20pacific>
By Vanessa Houlder in London
January 21 2001
The world's leading climate scientists will on Monday sound an urgent
warning about the threat posed by global warming, in a report which
predicts that the planet could heat up by nearly 6°C this century.
The report by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), a panel
of experts established by the United Nations, is significantly
harder-hitting in its conclusions about the extent and causes of climate
change than previous official assessments. The verdict of the world's most
authoritative voice on global warming is likely to have a powerful impact
on the debate about climate change, which is still viewed with scepticism
in some quarters.
Many scientists and policymakers hope the report will bring an added
urgency to attempts to rescue the climate change talks that collapsed in
The Hague in November.
The international effort to finalise the 1997 Kyoto Protocol on curbing
greenhouse gas emissions is due to be resumed at a meeting in late spring
or summer.
Several hundred experts and government reviewers gathered in Shanghai last
Wednesday for four days to approve the final wording of the 1,000-page
report and its summary, which will be published today.
The review, known as the IPCC's Third Assessment Report, will predict an
increase in surface temperatures of between nearly 1.5°C and 5.8°C by 2100.
A previous IPCC assessment in 1995 estimated the increase would be between
1°C and 3.5°C.
The deterioration in the worst-case forecast is largely a perverse side
effect of an expected improvement in air quality. Researchers are expecting
a fall in emissions of sulphur dioxide, which offsets global warming, as a
result of attempts to curb smog and acid rain.
The projected temperature increase, which would be the most rapid change in
the last 10,000 years, is expected to result in rising sea levels and
greater incidence of floods, droughts and fires.
The review also goes further than previous reports in pinning the blame for
global warming on greenhouse gas emissions. It reports that "new and
stronger evidence that most of the observed warming of the last 50 years is
attributable to human activities". By contrast, the 1995 assessment
described "a discernible human influence" on global warming.
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