-Caveat Lector-

Will the Real John DiIulio Please Stand Up

by Vincent Schiraldi
Washington Post
February 5, 2001

In the heat of the controversy over the creation of the Office of
Faith-Based and Community Groups, John DiIulio, the office's director, has
been lauded as a man of intellect and science. But for those of us who have
followed the politics of crime and punishment for the past decade, no
single person has been more closely identified with unsound crime analysis
and punitive imprisonment policies than John DiIulio.

The 1990s were a punishing decade for America, with nearly as many people
added to our prisons and jails as in America's entire history prior to
1990. These policies were particularly devastating to the black community
as one in three young African American males was put under criminal justice
control and states shifted funds from higher education to prisons.
Fittingly, the number of adults and juveniles locked up in America topped
the 2 million mark at the decade's end. While many politicians competed for
top honors in the tough-on-crime sweepstakes, academia's acknowledged king
of crime hype was John DiIulio. In 1996 he authored an incendiary report
warning of a "rising tide of juvenile superpredators" waiting to engulf
America. Bob Dole picked up on the "superpredator" epithet in a radio
address during his presidential campaign. Rep. Bill McCollum (R-Fla.)
dubbed legislation that jailed juveniles alongside adults "The Violent
Youth Predator Act of 1996."

Turns out the tide never rose as high as DiIulio expected. The number of
homicides committed by youth in America dropped by 68 percent between 1993
and 1999, and youth crime is now at its lowest in 25 years. As University
of California Prof. Franklin Zimring pointed out, there would have had to
be as many "thugs" under age 6 as over age 13 for the dire warnings of
270,000 new "superpredators" to come true.

In 1996, when America's crime policies became the harshest in the world,
DiIulio authored the "State of Violent Crime in America," a report that
selectively picked data to exaggerate the threat of violent crime and the
leniency of America's justice policies. DiIulio's report claimed that "Over
half of convicted violent felons are not even sentenced to prison." As it
turned out, the government report DiIulio cited showed that 60 percent of
all violent offenders were sentenced to prison and that another 21 percent
were sentenced to jail. Overall, four out of five persons convicted of
violent offenses were sentenced to incarceration, a statistic that did not
fit the "soft on crime" tapestry he was attempting to weave.

In a 1996 Legal Times article, "A Bull in Crime's China Shop," DiIulio came
under fire for his hyperbolic proclamations from a usually staid group of
academics. University of Chicago criminologist Norval Morris said, "It's a
tribute to the superficiality of our analysis of crime that he gets such
notoriety." Zimring said, "Much of what he writes is trying to
out-sound-bite Phil Gramm." Even DiIulio's mentor, conservative
criminologist James Q. Wilson, said, "I understand the criticism, and I
think there is some merit to it."

After the backlash against his gloom-and-doom proclamations, DiIulio wrote
several pieces toning down his rhetoric. He began working with churches in
inner-city communities, claimed that he never intended for young people to
be incarcerated with adults and urged a stop to prison growth. These were
startling turnarounds from a man who provided the intellectual backing for
the largest prison expansion in our history, most of it at the expense of
the inner-city blacks he was coming to embrace.

All of which leaves me cautious. Is DiIulio the man who called our young
people "fatherless, godless and without conscience" and who wrote in the
National Review, "All that's left of the black community in some pockets of
urban America is deviant, delinquent and criminal adults surrounded by
severely abused and neglected children, virtually all of whom were born out
of wedlock?" Or is he the John DiIulio who has expressed hope for
inner-city blacks, a hope that presumably does not include even larger
numbers of them being funneled into the prisons he once so loudly espoused?
Before a major federal initiative is put under his aegis, those are
important questions to answer.
----
The writer is president of the Justice Policy Institute.

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