-Caveat Lector-

http://www.sunday-
times.co.uk/news/pages/sti/2001/02/11/stinwenws02020.html

February 11 2001
BRITAIN

Blair sets Ragin' Cajun on Hague
Tony Allen-Mills  and Tom Rhodes

JAMES CARVILLE, the notorious "Ragin' Cajun" who engineered Bill
Clinton's first presidential victory in 1992, is back on the warpath - and
this time he wants the scalp of William Hague.

Carville is recruiting a team of fellow Americans to help new Labour take
on the Tories in the general election expected this spring.

Under Carville's command, a small army of strategists, spin doctors,
pollsters and speechwriters is preparing to apply the most modern
American election techniques to help Tony Blair secure his second term
of office.

The team is in regular contact with Blair's advisers, while Stan
Greenberg, Carville's partner, is a frequent visitor to London.

"After the loss of Al Gore over here, they all want to make sure Blair
wins big," said one Democrat aide who was approached about a
possible job last week.

The Americans' involvement means the British general election is likely
to take on the characteristics of an international grudge match. Carville
and his Democrat friends are peeved that the Republicans, the Tories'
sister party, managed to install George W Bush in the White House in
last year's presidential race. They see Hague as a disciple of Bush's
"compassionate conservatism".

Despite a series of embarrassing setbacks for other candidates he has
recently advised, the Louisiana-born Carville, 56, is still widely regarded
as one of the  foremost practitioners of political marketing - the art of
selling a candidate to a diverse and sometimes hostile electorate.

Best known for establishing the so-called "war room" that launched the
Clinton campaign to victory from meagre beginnings in Little Rock,
Arkansas, Carville's website boasts that he has "managed more political
campaigns than anyone in history". He knows Blair personally and has
worked before in Britain.

Blair and Gordon Brown forged links with the Democrats during a joint
trip to America in the early 1990s, and have always respected the
professionalism of the "backroom boys" of American politics.

The two men also realised that a close working relationship with
Clinton's staffers could help cement the Anglo-American "special
relationship" if they ever came to power.

Blair's pollster, Philip Gould, shares the enthusiasm of his master. In
1995 he persuaded his friend Greenberg, widely regarded as the father
of modern polling techniques, to offer Blair free advice.

Greenberg was concerned that new Labour should ensure it did not talk
about issues such as gay rights. "Voters think that a serious party that
represents the ordinary person focuses on things that matter to people
in their lives," Greenberg wrote in a memo to the Labour leader.

The stream of Greenberg advice never stopped coming. In a memo from
Gould to Blair, leaked last year, the pollster quoted Greenberg
approvingly. Feeding Blair's "anti-complacency" obsession, Greenberg
warned that the Labour poll lead by election day could be as low as five
points.

In 1997 Carville and Greenberg established an international consulting
firm with Gould - Gould Greenberg Carville GOP - based in London.

Another Carville partner assisting Labour will be Robert Shrum. He is
regarded as a brilliant speechwriter, who crafted Senator Ted Kennedy's
eulogy for John F Kennedy Jr after the senator's nephew was killed in a
plane crash two years ago. Shrum is known to have forged a close
relationship with both  Brown and Ed Miliband, a senior Treasury
adviser.

One of Blair's inner circle said: "The Tories steal many of their ideas
from the Republicans and it is natural for us to learn from those who
have first-hand experience in combating those ideas."

Campaign work has already begun in New York where Sidney
Blumenthal, a former New Yorker magazine writer who became an
adviser to Clinton, is preparing an election memorandum for Blair, whom
he knows well.

Last week Blumenthal, who has just signed a £440,000 contract to write
a book about his White House experiences, would only say: "Tony Blair
is my friend and I hope he wins."

For Carville and several of his partners, the Blair campaign offers a
prospect of easy glory after a run of crushing losses in America, Israel
and Mexico.

Carville was still foaming in a television debate last week that Bush "got
in by losing the election" and that "Al Gore won Florida" - the state that
was awarded to Bush after a long dispute over uncounted ballots.

In Israel's recent election campaign, Greenberg and Shrum were hired to
help prime minister Ehud Barak, but found no way of reversing the tide
of support for Ariel Sharon. In Mexico, the Carville team advised
Francisco Labastida Ochoa, the presidential candidate for the ruling PRI
party, who was trounced last year.

William Hague must be hoping that Carville's run of bad luck continues.

Copyright 2001 Times Newspapers Ltd. This service is provided on
Times Newspapers'


--


Years ago, fairy tales all began with "Once upon a time..."
Now we know they all begin with "If I am elected."
     --Carolyn Warner (1930-    )

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