http://www.hindustantimes.com/nonfram/090201/detFOR01.asp
Risk of Indo-Pak conflict unacceptably high: CIA
S.Rajagopalan
(Washington, February 8)
THE CENTRAL Intelligence Agency (CIA) has painted a grim picture of the
situation in the Indian sub-continent, saying it believes that the risk of
war between India and Pakistan remains "unacceptably high". It also talks of
"a good prospect of another round of nuclear tests" in the sub-continent,
notwithstanding India's repeated and solemn affirmations to the contrary. CIA
director George J. Tenet, in a testimony before the Senate's Select Committee
on Intelligence on Wednesday, asserted: "I must report that relations between
India and Pakistan remain volatile, making the risk of war between the two
nuclear-armed adversaries unacceptably high." Tenet, who had painted a
similar picture last year on nuclear proliferation and missile development
issues, said there was no sign of improvement in the potentially
destabilising competition between the two countries. "We still believe there
is a good prospect of another round of nuclear tests," he maintained.
"Pakistan may respond in kind," he said, while talking about last month's
Agni test. The CIA chief's remarks on South-Asia were part of an omnibus
statement, titled: "World Threat 2001: National Security in a Changing
World". As for the military balance in the sub-continent, he said India
continued to enjoy advantages over Pakistan in most areas of conventional
defence preparedness. "This includes a decisive advantage in fighter
aircraft, almost twice as many men under arms, and a much larger economy to
support defence expenditures. As a result, Pakistan relies heavily on its
nuclear weapons for deterrence." In Tenet's view, the deep-seated rivalry,
frequent artillery exchanges in Kashmir and short flight times for
nuclear-capable ballistic missiles and aircraft all contribute to an unstable
nuclear deterrence. Dwelling on Kashmir, he claimed both sides "seem quite
willing to take risks". This, along with their "deep animosity and distrust",
could lead to decisions that escalate tensions, Tenet said. He conceded that
the recent telephonic conversation between Prime Minister Atal Bihari
Vajpayee and Gen. Pervez Musharraf has opened the doors for high-level talks,
but added the process was still fragile. "Neither side has yet agreed to
direct, unconditional talks. Tension can easily flare up once winter ends or
by New Delhi or Islamabad manoeuvring for an edge in the negotiations.
Leadership changes in either country also could add to tensions." The CIA
chief also spoke of Pakistan's internal problems, especially the economy,
complicating the situation and threatening whatever room Gen. Musharraf might
have for manoeuvre.
