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OUR REGULAR FEATURES:
"ANIMAL SPIRITS" This
confidence indicator was featured
in Barron's. See for yourself
where we are in the "confidence
cycle."
MOMENTUM indicator has
signaled low-risk buy points
amazingly well.
VOLATILITY is the key to risk
aversion.
THE MIND OF THE MARKET
Over 10,000 visits each
month. Read disclaimer. Support
BubbleBucks.
Please subscribe.
Recession,
anyone?
For background read this
Barron's article. The yield
curve spent most of the
first half of 2000 inverted.
Confidence is now on the
brink of "self-organized
criticality," or sharp
collapse. Will Easy Money and
Tax Cuts R USA
save the day?
Wishful thinking
(2/4) - Economist.
BubbleBucks Special: Has
the NASDAQ Hit Bottom?
. .
.
U.S. Public Debt Levels
Off in May (5/29) - U.S.
Treasury, "debt to the
penny" page. Will a recession
cause debt to re-explode?
(Jump to "the bubble" to see
ratio to
GDP.)
An Oldie but Goody :
"Animal Spirits" in Y2K: No
Recession in View
(11/19/99), Forecasted no recession till
after election. The best
signal is when the yield curve
inverts from 1 to 10 years,
and...springtime brought the
inversion!
2000-2010: Can America's
New Golden Age Be
Sustained? (added 2/27) -
stratfor.com. The bull market
ends, and Pat Buchanan is
the candidate of 2012.
See THE
BUBBLE updated!
.
. .
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THE BUBBLE
See Archive for past index pages.
The only other times in the
past century when the debt ratio has been this high have been
around
1929 and 1945.
top
Popular Studies--see Research Page for a
listing of more:
The Tax Cut America Needs
Self-organized criticality and the
non-inflationary debt-shredding reflation - why there is more
volatility in your future.
Decennial Patterns in the Stock Market
- partially restored
Macroeconomic Volatility and Risk
Aversion - in "the mind of the market"
"A Human Need" -- my piece in Barron's
"The Social Security Fix"
"Reflections on 'Titanic'".
"Some Perspectives on Complacency."
"Daily Volatility of the S&P 500,
1970-1997"
"Note on 'The Big Mo'"
"The 'Big Mo' in the '8' Year"
"'Animal Spirits' in 1998"
"Debt and the Stock Market"
These three are a matched set:
"The Long-Term Momentum Oscillator"
"The Killer Wave"
"Note on Forecasting the Stock Market
Using the Long-Term Momentum Oscillator"
top
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