-Caveat Lector-
February 13, 2001
Dirty new warming secret
By Steven Milloy
Global warming pushers should be choking on soot this week.
Instead the global warming-friendly media is choking a
potentially devastating story.
"Soot may be responsible for 15 percent to 30 percent of
global warming, yet it's not even considered in any of the
discussions about controlling climate change," says Stanford
University professor Mark Jacobson.
The familiar black residue coating fireplaces and darkening
truck exhaust is second in importance only to carbon dioxide as a
cause of global warming, according to Mr. Jacobson's new study
published this week in the prestigious journal Nature.
Though Nature added a news story and media release to
spotlight the study, no major media outlet reported it � not the
Associated Press, The Washington Post or New York Times, all of
which typically miss no opportunity to trumpet gloom-and-doom
stories about global warming.
But that's the problem. Mr. Jacobson's study raises serious
questions about the theory that humans are measurably changing
global climate.
Mr. Jacobson ironically offers the study as a reason to
accelerate efforts to control global warming. But his study
actually illustrates the utter folly of the Kyoto protocol � the
1997 treaty not yet ratified by the U.S. Senate, which calls for
drastic reductions in carbon dioxide emissions (read "energy
use") among developed nations in hopes of avoiding predicted
climate-related calamities.
Global warming alarmists claim humans are raising global
temperatures by burning oil, gas and coal. Such combustion
releases carbon dioxide into the atmosphere. The added
"greenhouse gas" absorbs solar radiation, thereby "unnaturally"
warming the atmosphere.
Unchecked carbon dioxide emissions will cause global
temperatures to rise by as much as 10.4 degrees Fahrenheit over
the next 100 years, according to the alarmist United Nations'
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). This
temperature increase is predicted to cause all sorts of problems
from severe weather-related events to higher sea levels to the
spread of infectious diseases.
The predicted rise in global temperature is not based on
scientific evidence, but rather on mathematical models that rely
on crude assumptions about the numerous and complex factors that
affect global climate.
The IPCC explicitly admits a lack of knowledge about climate
factors, stating there is "low" or "very low" scientific
understanding for 9 of the 12 factors thought to affect global
climate. For two factors, there is "medium" understanding. The
IPCC says there is a "high" level of understanding only for the
greenhouses gases, such as carbon dioxide, methane and nitrous
oxide.
Enter soot.
The IPCC acknowledges soot may affect climate but downplays
it anyway. The IPCC classifies soot in the "very low" category of
scientific understanding and says that soot isn't a very potent
trapper of solar radiation.
But Mr. Jacobson says soot combines in the atmosphere with
dust, sea spray, atmospheric aerosols and chemicals. The
resultant particles, call them "soot-plus," absorb much more
solar radiation than plain soot.
The IPCC hypothesizes carbon dioxide is the most important
global warming factor, trapping solar radiation at a rate of 1.56
watts per square meter. Methane is rated second by the IPCC at
0.47 watts per square meter. Jacobson estimates the rating for
soot-plus is an astounding 0.55 watts per square meter.
Here's how soot-plus is a show-stopper.
There is general agreement that global temperatures warmed
from 1910 to 1940 and cooled from 1940 to 1975. Temperature
changes since 1975 are hotly disputed. The IPCC says global
temperatures have warmed. But this claim is based on surface
temperature records that are biased upward by temperature
readings from urban areas whose concrete and asphalt absorb heat.
Other climatologists point to satellite and balloon
temperature measurements that are unaffected by the so-called
"urban heat island effect" and that report no significant warming
global warming since 1979.
So despite the steady increase in atmospheric greenhouse
gases all during the 20th century, there has been significant no
warming trend since 1940.
The IPCC tries to account for this discrepancy by saying an
increase in atmospheric aerosols � dust from volcanic eruptions
and sulfates from fossil fuel that reflect solar radiation �
masked the post-1940 warming effect of the greenhouse gases by
providing a cooling force in the atmosphere.
Accepting the IPCC's explanation for the sake of argument,
the heretofore ignored existence of soot-plus exactly offsets the
cooling effect of the aerosols � and the IPCC is back to needing
an explanation for why global temperatures aren't rising with
greenhouse gas concentrations.
So the IPCC models that assume global climate is very
sensitive to greenhouse gases and predict a 2.5- to 10.4-degree
increase in temperature over the next 100 years remain seriously
flawed.
University of Virginia climatologist Pat Michaels says Mr.
Jacobson's study bolsters his prediction of only a 2.5 degree
Fahrenheit increase over the next 100 years. Atmospheric
physicist S. Fred Singer says the predicted temperature increase
is likely to be even less.
The larger question, though, is how much confidence should
be placed in IPCC forecasts completely overlooking possibly the
second-most important manmade impact on climate?
Under the Kyoto protocol, carbon dioxide emissions would be
reduced to 1990 levels by 2010 � what could amount to a 30
percent reduction in energy use. Should we reduce energy use and
risk harming the economy based on a predictions of global warming
that are so lacking in understanding?
Certainly more research is needed to confirm soot is the
dirty secret that undoes global warming hysteria. Meanwhile, the
soot-plus hypothesis should bar the rush-to-judgment the global
warming pushers wants us to make � if only the media would tell
someone.
Steven Milloy is publisher of Junkscience.com and an adjunct
scholar at the Cato Institute.
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