-Caveat Lector-
>From the Richmond, Va., Times-Dispatch.
Mar 20, 2001
Deterrence: Concealed-Carry States Have Reduced Crime Rates
A. BARTON HINKLE
TIMES-DISPATCH COLUMNIST
Six years ago the state passed a measure making it easier
for residents to obtain permits to
carry concealed weapons. State Senator Virgil Goode's bill
required circuit court judges to
issue such permits unless the appli- cant had been convicted
of a felony, was a foreign
national, or had been involuntarily committed. At the time,
critics predicted blood would
flow like a river.
- "This bill will make our streets infinitely more dangerous.
This bill will imperil our police
officers. This bill is scary," said Delegate Kenneth Melvin.
- "This means the carnage we've seen over the past decade
will continue," predicted State
Senator Henry Marsh.
- The bill would put guns in the hands of "every nutcake in Virginia," warned
State Senator Richard Saslaw.
- "You pass this bill and you'll let a whole bunch of Rambos feel self-important
and wander around back home with
concealed weapons," said State Senator Madison Marye.
SO WHAT happened? Crime decreased. Violent offenses across the state fell to
316 per 100,000 residents in 1998
- the lowest rate in 10 years - from a peak of 380. In Richmond, the homicide
rate declined 42 percent from 1995
(the year after the city set a new record for murder), to the lowest level in
20 years. Overall crime in the state
declined 24 percent from 1991, to the lowest level since 1975.
None of this should be terribly surprising. Individuals seeking concealed-weapons
permits must tender their
applications to a judge and submit to criminal-background checks. Somehow, it
seems unlikely a fellow planning to
rob a bank would subject himself to such scrutiny. Indeed, the Bureau of Alcohol,
Tobacco, and Firearms says 93
percent of the pistols used in crimes were obtained illegally. Those seeking
permits are law-abiding citizens.
Florida, for example, has issued more than 380,000 permits since it relaxed its
concealed-weapons law in 1987.
Nine years later, only 72 permits had been revoked because of crimes committed
by license-holders, and few of
those crimes involved pistols. Here in the Commonwealth, the courts have issued
96,506 concealed-weapons
permits. Only 274 - less than three hundredths of 1 percent - have been revoked,
and of those, 17 have been
reinstated.
If anything, passage of the concealed-weapons law has made crime less prevalent.
University of Chicago
economist John Lott has researched the issue and published his findings in More
Guns, Less Crime. Even after
controlling for factors such as the cyclical decline in crime nationwide, he
found that states permitting citizens to
carry concealed weapons have reduced murder by 8.5 percent, rape by 5 percent,
and severe assault by 7
percent. (A few years ago Orlando, Florida, was suffering a rash of rapes. In
response, the police offered women a
weapons-training seminar. About 2,500 showed up the first day. Within a short
time, rapes fell 80 percent.)
Lott explains the decline as a function of deterrence: Criminals prey on the
weak and defenseless. Permitting
citizens to carry concealed weapons makes the criminal's job far riskier - he
never can be sure who might be
packing heat. As one felon said after Morton Grove, Illinois, banned pistols:
"When a thief breaks into someone's
house or property, the first thing to worry about is getting shot by the owner."
Lott writes: Convicted American
felons reveal in surveys that they are much more worried about armed victims
than about running into the police .
. . .Felons frequently comment in interviews that they avoid late-night burglaries
because "that's the way to get
shot."
The criminals' fear is well-grounded. Estimates on the use of firearms for self-defense
vary wildly, because many
incidents go unreported. But even the lowest estimate, by the Department of Justice's
National Crime Victimization
Survey, reports that guns are used 110,000 times a year for defensive purposes.
LOTT'S CRITICS have leveled ad hominem attacks against him. They point out that
he received an Olin fellowship,
and the Olin Corporation manufactures - among other things - ammunition. Hence
(they reason) Lott's work is
tainted and, therefore, invalid. The Olin Foundation's president, the late William
Simon, refuted the charge in a
letter: The John M. Olin Foundation has supported for many years a program in
law and economics at the
University of Chicago Law School. This program is administered and directed by
a committee of faculty members .
. . .We at the foundation had no knowledge of who applied for these fellowships,
nor did we ever suggest that Mr.
Lott should be awarded one of them. We did not commission his study, nor, indeed,
did we even know of it until
last month, when Mr. Lott presented his findings at a conference sponsored by
a Washington think tank.
The critics have resorted to personal attacks because they have so little ground
on which to challenge Lott's
findings. But let's say they are right - let's say even that Lott is a full-time
employee of Smith & Wesson. Does
that in any way alter the facts in his book? Of course not. The data are what
matter, not who presented them.
And certain gun-control advocates are willing to admit as much, at least in a
dark basement with nobody else
around. Among those who have permits to carry concealed firearms are former New
York Times publisher Arthur
Sulzburger and a bodyguard employed by Rosie O'Donnell - she who has said, "There
should be a law - and I know
this is extreme - that no one can have a gun in the U.S. If you have a gun, you
go to jail." Better to get mugged
by reality, it seems, than by a thug in the street.
This story can be found at : http://www.timesdispatch.com/editorial/MGB3D0TUIKC.html
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