-Caveat Lector- WJPBR Email News List [EMAIL PROTECTED] Peace at any cost is a Prelude to War! Was America Hunting for a New Killer Submarine? 04 April 2001 The loss of the EP-3E aircraft means the demise of some of the United States’ capabilities to eavesdrop along China’s coastline. It also could eventually spell more trouble for relations between the two countries. Both observations beg the question: What was a U.S. spy plane doing down there in the first place? True, missions are flown routinely along the China coast. But a series of incidents, stretching back several years, indicate the United States has been hunting for signs of a breakthrough in Chinese submarine technology – one that poses a serious threat to America’s most powerful conventional weapon: the aircraft carrier. There has been a rash of arrests of Western defense attaches in China. And recently a U.S. vessel was chased from an exercise area. Both actions suggest China is close to a breakthrough in its long-stalled efforts to build an effective submarine threat. Sources in China confirm the Chinese military reaction to the EP-3E incident was sharp because the military is trying to safeguard its submarine secrets. There are two vessels at issue. The People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) placed a new version of the Russian-designed Kilo-class submarine into service April 4, 2000, according to a brief report in the Hong Kong-based Sing Tao Jih Pao. The new Kilo is equipped with anti-ship weapons and has conducted recent drills simulating combat with carrier-type warships, according to the paper, which cited sources in the People’s Liberation Army. It takes up to a year to qualify a new vessel and crew for duty at sea. But the Chinese navy may have made a more significant breakthrough. It has been working for years on a variant of the larger, more powerful Victor III submarine. This submarine, known in China as a Type 093 and due for completion sometime in late 2000, was designed to launch cruise missiles while submerged. That would allow the Chinese to threaten the pre-eminent American weapons system in the region: the aircraft carrier. A Russian-designed Kilo-class submarine. The flight of the EP-3E along China’s coastline suggests it was monitoring transmissions of navy vessels and coastal installations. The aircraft may have been looking for signs of either of these two submarines as well. It appears the U.S. Navy was taking an intense interest in a recent exercise far to the north in the Yellow Sea – not far from the port where the new boat has been under construction. That’s where the U.S. vessel was chased away. It is an unusual coincidence that the damaged American EP-3E made an emergency landing on Hainan Island. The island lies at the epicenter of China’s efforts to extend its naval force far beyond its coastline. By doing so, it can interdict the sea lanes that bring oil to Northeast Asia. The Chinese also could put an end to their worst nightmare, realized in 1996, when American carriers were just off the Chinese coast. To the north of the island is the headquarters of the South Sea Fleet at Zhanjiang. Zhanjiang is a likely target for collecting Chinese signals from telephone calls and other transmissions because it controls operations into the hotly contested Spratly Islands. Two submarine flotillas operate out of the South Sea Fleet, according to a recent version of Jane’s Security Assessment. Hainan hosts a naval base at the northern port of Haikou. It appears likely the new Kilos not only have entered service but also may have been certified to take part in deep-water operations, ostensibly against American carriers in the case of war. The U.S. Defense Department estimated last year that the Kilos will be adapted to use Russian technology in quieting and sonar, as well as weapons systems. In a 2000 report, the department estimated China “is expected to begin arming some of its submarines with submerged launch cruise missiles.” The Chinese navy is also emphasizing its own anti-submarine operations, emphasizing training. “As a result, China’s submarine fleet could constitute a substantial force capable of controlling sea lanes and mining approaches around Taiwan,” the U.S. military report concluded, “as well as a growing threat to submarines in the East and South China Seas.” Operations in the South China Sea are the key for China to break out of its largely defensive naval posture. From the South China Sea, the Chinese can intercept an opposing force – far away from the mainland. Such a force can harass shipping, particularly ships carrying petroleum, to Japan and South Korea. The Chinese military appears to feel the United States, keenly interested in the submarine program, is moving to counter this threat by bringing its own weapons closer to the coast. STRATFOR *COPYRIGHT NOTICE** In accordance with Title 17 U. S. C. Section 107, any copyrighted work in this message is distributed under fair use without profit or payment to those who have expressed a prior interest in receiving the included information for nonprofit research and educational purposes only.[Ref. http://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/17/107.shtml ] Want to be on our lists? Write at [EMAIL PROTECTED] for a menu of our lists! <A HREF!ttp://www.ctrl.org/">www.ctrl.org</A> DECLARATION & DISCLAIMER CTRL is a discussion & informational exchange list. Proselytizing propagandic screeds are unwelcomed. Substancenot soap-boxingplease! These are sordid matters and 'conspiracy theory'with its many half-truths, mis- directions and outright fraudsis used politically by different groups with major and minor effects spread throughout the spectrum of time and thought. That being said, CTRLgives no endorsement to the validity of posts, and always suggests to readers; be wary of what you read. CTRL gives no credence to Holocaust denial and nazi's need not apply. Let us please be civil and as always, Caveat Lector. rchives Available at: http://peach.ease.lsoft.com/archives/ctrl.html <A HREF!ttp://peach.ease.lsoft.com/archives/ctrl.html">Archives of [EMAIL PROTECTED]</A> http:[EMAIL PROTECTED]/ <A HREF!ttp:[EMAIL PROTECTED]/">ctrl</A> o subscribe to Conspiracy Theory Research List[CTRL] send email: SUBSCRIBE CTRL [to:] [EMAIL PROTECTED] To UNsubscribe to Conspiracy Theory Research List[CTRL] send email: SIGNOFF CTRL [to:] [EMAIL PROTECTED] Om
