-Caveat Lector- .............................................................. >From the New Paradigms Project [Not Necessarily Endorsed] Note: We store 100's of related "New Paradigms Posts" at: http://www.msen.com/~lloyd/oldprojects/recentmail.html From: "Foreign Affairs Journal Announcements" <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> To: <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> Subject: May/June 2001 Foreign Affairs Date: Thursday, April 26, 2001 2:13 AM Visit the new Foreign Affairs website at www.foreignaffairs.org In the May/June 2001 issue of Foreign Affairs: WILL THE ATLANTIC ALLIANCE SURVIVE? Despite recent disputes over beef and bananas, Europe remains America's most important ally. William Wallace warns that the United States must acknowledge the European Union as a true and equal partner-or else face global challenges alone. Meanwhile, Antony Blinken notes that America and Europe, far from growing apart, are in fact converging culturally, economically, and even strategically. FOLLOW THE MONEY Joseph Quinlan and Marc Chandler explain why the U.S. trade deficit doesn't matter; Robert Pozen explains why Europe's financial markets do. THE NEW DEFENSE AGENDA The Bush administration faces a whole new set of national security issues that threaten to reshape U.S. defense policy. In this issue of Foreign Affairs, Michael Klare warns that competition over natural resources-such as petroleum, natural gas, and timber-will determine where conflicts break out around the world. Michael Krepon urges the Bush administration to avoid building antisatellite weapons. And James Adams calls for a new initiative to protect the nation's computer and information networks against cyber-attack. LIBYA'S THAW, UKRAINE'S MELTDOWN What's Washington to do when a "rogue" nation starts to clean up its act? Or when a promising democracy starts to descend into tyranny? In this issue, Ray Takeyh assesses the reforming Qaddafi regime in Libya, while Adrian Karatnycky reports on the scandalous Kuchma regime in Ukraine. WILL THE ATLANTIC ALLIANCE SURVIVE? Europe, the Necessary Partner The United States accuses the European Union of not doing enough to advance "shared" goals, while Europe sees America as an arrogant and flawed hegemon. According to William Wallace of the London School of Economics, the Atlantic alliance is now splitting over different perceptions of burden sharing, foreign-policy goals, and social values. Yet despite these tensions, the alliance remains as crucial as ever-to both parties. Washington must now recognize Brussels as a true partner, in military and political matters as well as in economics. America can no longer expect its allies to share the burdens of global leadership without allowing them their say in the issues at stake. The United States and Europe need each other. Neither can handle the problems of Russia on its own, or those of the unstable Mediterranean, Caucasus, and greater Middle East. ... Transnational organized crime, drug smuggling, and money laundering threaten public order on both sides of the Atlantic-problems best met through a coordinated response. ... The world's two largest integrated economies need to monitor shifts in the global economic balance and work together to smooth out the bumps. ... The transatlantic partnership ... needs redefinition to accommodate the EU's strengthening capabilities, the enlargement of NATO, and the distinctive foreign policy interests of North American and European states. The False Crisis Over the Atlantic Crisis-mongers who bemoan the transatlantic "values gap" are ignoring the facts, says Antony Blinken, a senior fellow at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. True, European elites bash America for its use of the death penalty, its rampant gun violence, its genetically modified "Frankenfoods," and its unchecked capitalism. And Washington's unilateralist obstinance on issues such as missile defense, land mines, and global warming seems to only make matters worse. But a closer look shows that Europe and the United States are in fact converging culturally, economically, and even strategically. And false cries of a transatlantic crisis only impede understanding and cooperation. In the transatlantic lexicon, beef is indeed a four-letter word. So are bananas, GMOs [genetically modified foods], and foreign sales corporations. These commercial disputes bolster the impression that the United States and the EU are economic gladiators locked in a death match. In fact, such contentious cases account for less than two percent of trade and investment flows across the Atlantic, which total $36 billion a day. ... Yes, Washington does need to manage the disputes that do exist, lest they corrode relations. One way to do that would be to stop making the WTO-which is good at deciding cases on technical merits but bad at dealing with those that have heavy political content-the court of first recourse for every transatlantic trade dispute. But the fact remains that transatlantic trade and investment ties, like the overall relationship, are overwhelmingly positive. FOLLOW THE MONEY The U.S. Trade Deficit: A Dangerous Obsession The United States is obsessed with its ever-growing trade deficit. Yet according to Joseph Quinlan of Morgan Stanley Dean Witter and Marc Chandler of Mellon Financial Corporation, trade is no longer a valid measure of global competition. Today U.S. firms compete in the world marketplace through foreign-affiliate sales instead of exports-and they do so with unparalleled success. Overblown fears about the burgeoning trade deficit, along with a slowing U.S. economy, could spark protectionist policies around the globe. This outcome-not the size of the deficit-is the greatest danger facing U.S. trade today. Foreign direct investment has changed the face of the international economy. Since the early 1970s, it has grown faster than either world output or global trade and is the single most important source of capital for developing countries. But America's foreign economic policy still centers on trade at the expense of FDI. A trade spat with the EU over beef and bananas, for example, risks America's large investment stake in Europe. And the suggestion of some in Congress to devalue the dollar to promote U.S. exports would only make it more expensive for U.S. affiliates to do business abroad while making it cheaper for foreign companies to buy American assets. An attempt to improve the trade balance, then, would actually end up hurting the FDI balance. Continental Shift In Europe, capital markets are rapidly displacing banks as both savings vehicles and sources of corporate finance, says Robert Pozen of Fidelity Investments. This shift, along with the growing integration of Europe's financial markets, could create promising new opportunities for investors around the globe. These changes could also help head off the looming pension crises facing many European nations. The EU's introduction of the euro has already accelerated the growth of the region's financial markets. For the 11 members of the European Monetary Union, the common currency nullified national requirements for pension and insurance assets to be invested in the same currencies as their liabilities-a restriction that had long locked the bulk of Europe's long-term savings into domestic assets. Freed from foreign-exchange transaction costs and risks of currency fluctuations, these savings fueled the rise of larger, more liquid European stock and bond markets, including the recent emergence of a substantial junk bond market. These more dynamic capital markets, in turn, have placed increased competitive pressure on banks by giving corporations new financing options and thus lowering the cost of capital. THE NEW FRONTS OF NATIONAL DEFENSE The New Geography of Conflict With four-fifths of the world's oil reserves lying in politically unstable areas, with diamond and timber wars already raging in Central Africa, and with many regions suffering persistent drought, resource competition could turn into open conflict. Indeed, increasingly fierce competition over natural resources has redrawn the lines of global conflict. According to Michael Klare of Hampshire College, governments now see the acquisition and protection of natural resources as a national security requirement-and one they are prepared to fight for. [V]iewing the international system in terms of unsettled resource deposits-contested oil and gas fields, shared water systems, embattled diamond mines-provides a guide to likely conflict zones in the twenty-first century. Lost in Space Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld has warned that the United States must protect itself against a "Space Pearl Harbor" by building antisatellite weapons. But such a strategy would only trigger an arms race in space, further threatening the satellites that the United States depends on both militarily and commercially. According to the Stimson Center's Michael Krepon, the best way to protect American commerce and security is to avoid putting weapons in space. [I]f Rumsfeld and Bush get serious about seizing the strategic high ground of space, the fallout from their decision will be severe. The repercussions will include new international competition to put weapons in space, further strains in alliance relations, closer strategic cooperation between Russia and China, deeper partisan division at home, weakened nonproliferation treaties, and, ironically, greater difficulties in developing one of the Bush administration's cherished goals-missile defense. For these many reasons, the temptations to embark on a new, armed space race must be avoided. Virtual Defense Cyberspace is becoming the new front line of warfare, and private citizens are the new prime target. But the United States remains defenseless against information warfare. As the military, the private sector, and Washington grow increasingly dependent on computers and information networks, they also grow more vulnerable to cyber-attack, says James Adams, chairman of iDefense, a cyber-intelligence firm. U.S. policymakers and technology entrepreneurs must build a wall of defense-now. Around the world, information technology increasingly pervades weapons systems, defense infrastructures, and national economies. As a result, cyberspace has become a new international battlefield. Whereas military victories used to be won through physical confrontations of weapons and soldiers, the information warfare being waged today involves computer sabotage by hackers acting on behalf of private interests or governments. Washington must ... put the world on notice that it will consider a cyber-attack against any U.S. entity an act of war that will generate an appropriate response. LIBYA'S THAW, UKRAINE'S MELTDOWN The Rogue Who Came in From the Cold How should the United States treat a former "rogue" nation that's now on the road to reform? After years of belligerence and isolation, the Libyan regime of Colonel Mu'ammar Qaddafi has recently started to meet international demands and redress its past crimes. Now, says Ray Takeyh of the Washington Institute, the Bush administration must figure out how to keep the pressure on while recognizing Libya's progress and helping reintegrate it into the world community. The challenge that Libya poses for the Bush administration is how to acknowledge Qaddafi's partial rehabilitation while continuing to press for further changes. Until now the United States has relied on a range of unilateral and coercive measures (such as sanctions) to contain Libya. But in the aftermath of the Lockerbie trial, with U.N. sanctions having been suspended, the United States can hardly isolate Libya on its own. Unless it adds incentives to the mix, Washington will have little in the way of leverage. Meltdown in Ukraine How should the United States treat a formerly promising democracy that's now on the road to repression? Over the last several months, a series of scandals linking President Leonid Kuchma to vote fraud, corruption, the disappearance of journalists, and the harassment of opposition politicians has rocked this struggling country. Meanwhile, says Adrian Karatnycky of Freedom House, Western criticism has only pushed Kuchma toward Moscow's more welcoming embrace. A careful response from Washington and Brussels can still stop Kiev's descent into tyranny-but there's no time to lose. [A] lurid scandal now unfolding in the top echelons of Ukraine's government may utterly destabilize the country. Recently disclosed evidence appears to connect President Leonid Kuchma and his closest aides to the surveillance of parliamentarians, the suborning of judges, interference in criminal investigations, massive graft, falsification of election results, and the harassment of journalists-including the September 2000 disappearance and murder of on-line reporter Heorhiy Gongadze. COMPLETE TABLE OF CONTENTS Magazine: Foreign Affairs Issue: May/June 2001, Volume 80, Number 3 COMMENTS LOST IN SPACE Michael Krepon 2 Before taking office, the new secretary of defense chaired a panel that warned that the United States would soon face a sneak attack in space. Rumsfeld was right to note that the country is more dependent on its satellites than ever before. But building antisatellite weapons will only trigger an arms race, increasing the danger for all sides. CONTINENTAL SHIFT Robert C. Pozen 9 The world of European finance is changing dramatically: capital markets are displacing banks as both savings vehicles and sources of corporate finance. This shift, along with the growing integration of Europe's financial markets, could create promising new opportunities for investors around the globe. ESSAYS EUROPE, THE NECESSARY PARTNER William Wallace 16 In many areas, transatlantic cooperation is stronger than ever before. Yet the common perception is of an increasingly fraught relationship, as evidenced by the well-known disputes over beef, bananas, and burden sharing. Assumptions are diverging over security risks and cultural values. Each side criticizes the other's unwieldy policymaking process without admitting its own shortcomings, while leaders pander to domestic interests and prejudices without educating voters on international issues. Europe nonetheless remains indispensable to a multilateral U.S. foreign policy. The Bush administration must acknowledge the European Union as a true partner, in political and military matters as well as in economics. America cannot expect its allies to share the burdens of global leadership without allowing them their say in the issues at stake. THE FALSE CRISIS OVER THE ATLANTIC Antony J. Blinken 35 European elites lambaste the United States for bad behavior at home and hegemonic hubris abroad. These Europeans see an ominous transatlantic "values gap" emerging over the death penalty, guns, "Frankenfoods," and unchecked capitalism. And Washington's unilateralist obstinance on issues such as missile defense, land mines, and global warming only makes matters worse. But a closer look shows that Europe and the United States are in fact converging culturally, economically, and even strategically. This phony crisis in relations only makes it more difficult to tap the full potential of the transatlantic partnership. THE NEW GEOGRAPHY OF CONFLICT Michael T. Klare 49 As last year's global shortage of petroleum and natural gas showed, the world can no longer keep up with the demands of continued population growth and economic expansion. Indeed, the competition for natural resources is intensifying. And with four-fifths of the world's oil reserves lying in politically unstable areas, with diamond and timber wars already raging in Central Africa, and with many regions suffering persistent drought, resource competition could easily turn into open conflict. Governments now see the acquisition and protection of natural resources as a national security requirement -- and one they are prepared to fight for. THE ROGUE WHO CAME IN FROM THE COLD Ray Takeyh 62 The recent trial of two Libyans for the 1988 bombing of Pan Am flight 103 over Lockerbie, Scotland, raises a vexing problem for U.S. policymakers: What should Washington do when American containment policy starts to pay off and a "rogue" state starts to reform? After years of international isolation, Colonel Mu'ammar Qaddafi is ending his belligerence and starting to meet many of the demands placed on him by Washington and its allies. Now President Bush must figure out how to keep the pressure on while recognizing Libya's progress and helping reintegrate it into the world community. MELTDOWN IN UKRAINE Adrian Karatnycky 73 In the last several months, Ukraine has descended into chaos. A series of scandals linking President Leonid Kuchma to vote fraud, corruption, the disappearance of journalists, and the harassment of opposition politicians has rocked this struggling country. Meanwhile, Western criticism has only pushed Kuchma toward Moscow's more welcoming embrace. A careful response from Washington and Brussels can still stop Kiev's descent into tyranny -- but there's no time to lose. THE U.S. TRADE DEFICIT: A DANGEROUS OBSESSION Joseph Quinlan and Marc Chandler 87 The United States is obsessed with its ever-growing trade deficit. Yet trade is no longer a valid measure of global competitiveness. Today U.S. firms compete in the world marketplace through foreign-affiliate sales instead of exports -- and they do so with unparalleled success. Overblown fears about the burgeoning trade deficit, along with a slowing U.S. economy, could spark protectionist policies in Washington, which could then trigger retaliations around the globe. This outcome -- not the size of the trade deficit -- is the greatest danger. VIRTUAL DEFENSE James Adams 98 The United States may be an uncontested military superpower, but it remains defenseless against a new mode of attack: information warfare. As the military, the private sector, and Washington grow increasingly dependent on computers and information networks, they also grow more vulnerable to cyber-attack. Cyberspace is becoming the new front line of warfare, and private citizens are the new prime target. U.S. policymakers and technology entrepreneurs must wake up to this threat and build a wall of defense -- now. REVIEWS & RESPONSES DESPOTISM IN BRUSSELS? Andrew Moravcsik 114 Larry Siedentop's Democracy in Europe contrasts the tyrannical bureaucracy in Brussels with the federal republic that inspired Alexis de Tocqueville's Democracy in America. But the author's political nostalgia overlooks the European reality. THE UNANSWERED QUESTION Jeffrey Herbst 123 Seven years after more than 500,000 Tutsi were massacred in Rwanda, the world still cannot explain why. Mahmood Mamdani's When Victims Become Killers is a rich history of Hutu and Tutsi identity, but how it applies to the genocide is unclear. RECENT BOOKS ON INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS 127 Including Gail M. Gerhart on African state-building; Robert Legvold on The Tragedy of Russia's Reforms; Richard N. Cooper on the Kyoto Protocol; Kenneth Maxwell on Culture Wars in Brazil; and L. Carl Brown on Hafiz al-Assad. LETTERS TO THE EDITOR 150 Southern Cone ambassadors trumpet regional harmony; Ilter Turkmen defends Turkish democracy; Lawrence Korb rethinks military cuts; and more. LURIE'S FOREIGN AFFAIRS 154 ____________________________ If at anytime you wish to unsubscribe from this list, click on the following url: http://foreignaffairs.org/Subscribe/pref.asp?user_id=7879475132054142 Forwarded for info and discussion from the New Paradigms Discussion List, not necessarily endorsed by: *********************************** Lloyd Miller, Research Director for A-albionic Research a ruling class/conspiracy research resource for the entire political-ideological spectrum. **FREE RARE BOOK SEARCH: <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> ** Explore Our Archive: <http://a-albionic.com/a-albionic.html> <A HREF="http://www.ctrl.org/";>www.ctrl.org</A> DECLARATION & DISCLAIMER ========== CTRL is a discussion & informational exchange list. Proselytizing propagandic screeds are unwelcomed. Substance�not soap-boxing�please! 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