-Caveat Lector- Jaffee Center: The Strategic Balance - A Barrier to Regional War 11.6.2001 The strategic balance in the Middle East is clearly tipped in Israel's favor, thus preventing the violence with the Palestinians from escalating to a regional confrontation. This conclusion rests on the data and analysis provided in the annual Middle East Military Balance 2000-2001, published today by the Tel Aviv University's Jaffee Center for Strategic Studies. This year's volume was written by the Center's director, Prof. Shai Feldman, and by Yiftah Shapir, a research associate at the Center. Presenting this year's volume, Prof. Feldman emphasized that "from Israel's standpoint, no significant changes occurred during the past year in either the conventional or the unconventional realms. In these areas, Israel's deterrent power remained robust, serving as a barrier against escalation to a regional war." Prof. Feldman noted that in the eyes of the Arab states, the strategic gap favoring Israel continues to widen. This is especially the case in the areas of technologies that are critical to the efficient employment of military forces in the battlefield. Paramount among these is air power, intelligence systems - including space-based intelligence assets - and the defense against ballistic missiles. In contrast to the IDF, all Arab armies lag in the implementation of the "Revolution in Military Affairs" - the realms of command, control, and intelligence that allow the successful execution of ground, naval and air operations." According to Prof. Feldman, "the continuing Palestinian violence presents Israel with a strategic challenge of the highest order. Yet the difficulties entailed in addressing this challenge do not erode Israel's over-all strategic advantage. This edge results from Israel's superior conventional forces, the Arab states' assessment that Israel possesses nuclear weapons, the close defense ties between Israel and the United States, and the absence of a substitute to the assistance that the Soviet Union provided some of the Arab states during the Cold War. Given this distribution of power, the interest of most Arab states is to maintain stability and to avoid becoming embroiled in a general war against Israel." Prof. Feldman added: "During the past year, no new contracts were signed for the purchase of arms that might allow the Arab states to change the military balance. Moreover, the Arab states also failed to achieve a breakthrough in the unconventional realm: despite the deterioration of the monitoring and verification regime applied against Iraq in the aftermath of the Gulf War, Sadam Hussein failed to rebuild the facilities for the production of chemical and nuclear weapons. And in Iran, the Shihab-3 - a missile intended to have a range allowing it to be launched against Israel - is yet to become operational." Yet Prof. Feldman does not dismiss the danger of regional escalation. "Errors in assessment that may lead Syria to permit Hizbollah to continue operating against Israeli targets, thus propelling a chain reaction that can result in a general war between Syria and Israel. To date, the Syrian leaders' appreciation of the balance of power induced them to limit Hizbollah activities to a very narrow sector - the Har Dov - Shaba Farms area. But there is no guarantee that the Syrians would always exercise such caution." Prof. Feldman added that in the future, Israel is likely to face more serious strategic challenges. "The long-term implications of the collapse of the international sanctions and monitoring regime applied against Iraq are considerable. Under these circumstances, it would be far easier for Iraq to produce nuclear and chemical weapons as well as ballistic missiles. Equally worrisome are the prospects that Iran would be able to develop an infrastructure for a military nuclear program and would succeed in making the 1300-km range Shihab-3 ballistic missile operational." -------------------------------------------- IMRA - Independent Media Review and Analysis Website: www.imra.org.il <A HREF="http://www.ctrl.org/";>www.ctrl.org</A> DECLARATION & DISCLAIMER ========== CTRL is a discussion & informational exchange list. Proselytizing propagandic screeds are unwelcomed. Substance�not soap-boxing�please! These are sordid matters and 'conspiracy theory'�with its many half-truths, mis- directions and outright frauds�is used politically by different groups with major and minor effects spread throughout the spectrum of time and thought. 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