-Caveat Lector-
http://www.guardian.co.uk/elsewhere/journalist/story/0,7792,511125,00.html
Moscow dispatch
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The end of the affair
The rosy glow that surrounded Bush and Putin's first meeting has not lasted
and the hard work on missile defence is still to come, writes Ian Traynor
Friday June 22, 2001
Call it a brief encounter, with the courting couple turning on each other
with the fury of wronged lovers just hours after being separated.
For George Bush, 54, and Vladimir Putin, 48, it appeared to be love at first
sight. In the romantic setting of a fairytale Slovene castle, the two
presidents met for a mere 100-minute t�te-�-t�te to get to know one another
and to set the world to rights.
They emerged from the encounter smitten - the US president, Bush, visibly
more so than his Russian counterpart. Russia's gameplan was, after all, for
Putin to get Bush alone and charm the pants off him.
The Americans, anxiously recalling what nearly happened when Mikhail
Gorbachev was left alone with Ronald Reagan in Reykjavik in what seems a
lifetime ago, panicked and insisted on a chaperone for Bush. So Condoleezza
Rice, the Russian-speaking US national security adviser, sat in on the
meeting along with her opposite number, Vladimir Rushailo, to keep an eye on
her boss.
Even Ms Rice, known for her hawkish views on Russia, was
uncharacteristically generous after the first ever meeting of the two
presidents. The most remarkable meeting of its type she had ever seen. They
really "connected", she noted.
But, a mere four days later, a war of words has broken out between Moscow
and Washington. The male-bonding and camaraderie already seems as though it
was a foolish and rather regrettable one-night stand.
Within hours of the US and Russian delegations arriving home from central
Europe, both propaganda machines were spinning like mad in a curious
reversal of the way summits usually work.
The typical scenario sees mutual brinkmanship and sabre rattling in the
run-up to the meeting, then a reasonably harmonious but guarded encounter
followed by an emphasis on agreements and satisfaction all round.
This time, however, the US-Russia summit produced wariness and curiosity in
advance, euphoric statements after the meeting, followed by unusually harsh
contradictions of what were thought to be the results.
The US secretary of state, Colin Powell, and Ms Rice returned to America to
make it plain that the US was pushing on regardless with its missiles
defence scheme and that US technology would not be "constrained" by cold war
treaties.
Mr Putin, meanwhile, invited the main US media in Moscow to the Kremlin and
warned sternly of the possibility of a new arms race if the US ignores the
ABM treaty proscribing missile defence.
There was little new of substance in Mr Putin's warnings, but the timing and
context of his remarks sent a political signal to Washington - that Bush
could flatter and charm as much as he liked, but that the Russians were
still waiting for concrete evidence of US willingness to compromise on
nuclear strategy and missile defence.
Igor Sergeyev, Putin's adviser on security strategy, said today that the
haggling over what the US calls a ''new security framework'' should be left
to the experts on both sides and not made a hostage of political
grandstanding.
This now looks likely to happen, with teams of defence experts on both sides
gathering to discuss and define the arcane detail of boost phases, missile
trajectories, theatre versus strategic defences, ABM definitions and
possible amendments while swapping intelligence on so-called "rogue states"
and their ballistic missile nuisance potential.
Mr Powell said that the US was looking for "a codicil or a protocol" to the
ABM treaty that would allow the US to proceed with missile defence without
scrapping the 1972 treaty. Putin, too, is dropping similar hints about ABM
modifications agreed in the 90s in New York and Helsinki.
In short, the search is on to save face and avoid showdown. "For the first
time, it has been quietly and unemphatically stated that the US is not going
to leave the anti-ballistic missile treaty. Two Russian-American commissions
for strategic stability are to begin working soon," noted the daily paper,
Nezavisimaya Gazeta.
That may be wishful Russian thinking. The hard and defining work starts next
month when Powell and his Russian counterpart, Igor Ivanov, meet in Italy to
discuss the fine print of a new strategic relationship and set up two
working groups of military and scientific experts, one on arms reductions,
the other on missile defences.
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