[CTRL] Is Mad Cow Expanding Beyond Western Europe?

[William Shannon]

http://www.stratfor.com/home/giu/archive/062101.asp Is Mad Cow Expanding Beyond Western Europe? 21 June 2001 Analysis German laboratory tests on a cow from a farm in the Czech Republic confirmed June 13 the first case of mad cow disease beyond Western Europe. Fears the disease is marching eastward heightened June 18 when Slovak authorities said they would slaughter and test a cow imported from a Dutch herd in which the illness was suspected. Though these cases may be anomalies, the disease, known clinically as bovine spongiform encephalopathy, or BSE, poses a significant threat to Central Europe. The region is unprepared to implement the vast efforts necessary to halt the spread of BSE. An outbreak like the recent one in Western Europe would decimate agriculture in Central Europe, particularly in Poland and Ukraine. BSE is a degenerative disease affecting a cow's central nervous system. Scientists suspect humans can contract a fatal illness, Cruetzfeldt-Jakob Disease, by eating BSE-contaminated beef. Until last week, the only confirmed cases of BSE were in Western Europe, where outbreaks, primarily in the United Kingdom, have devastated the agricultural sector.� European beef exporters will continue to suffer from falling exports and global bans on their beef as well as faltering domestic consumption, which is down by 25 percent this year.� In April, scientists advised the European Commission that several Eastern European countries were at risk of BSE contamination. These "Category III" countries, so designated to reflect high BSE risks but no confirmed cases, had imported significant amounts of live cattle and meat-and-bonemeal from European Union countries with confirmed BSE cases.� Category III countries included the Czech Republic and Slovakia as well as Albania, Cyprus, Estonia, Hungary, Lithuania, Poland and Switzerland. Of those, only Poland exports a significant amount of beef - about 35,000 metric tons last year. The region's other large exporter of beef is Ukraine, which borders Slovakia. A source at the U.S. Foreign Agricultural Service said countries that export large numbers of live, potentially infected animals pose the greatest risk for spreading BSE regionally. According to the Czech News Agency, most of the 16,500 tons of Czech beef exported in 1999 were live cattle. Poland ranked sixth and Hungary 17th globally among live-cattle exporters in 1999.� Given the disease's unpredictability and four- to five-year incubation period, the risks of BSE popping up elsewhere in the region are considerable.� Poorer Central European governments will not be able to provide compensation without running up huge budget deficits. That means farmers are more likely to evade eradication measures and sell their products on the black market.� Black market feed is another concern. A slaughterhouse by-product, such feed is cheaper than vegetable-based feeds but is considered a primary source of BSE infection. Hurting farmers may look to either purchase or sell meat-and-bonemeal feed, increasing risks of the disease's spread. The costs and complexities of containment further heighten risks of a spreading outbreak. Ukraine is of particular concern. Ukraine is a major beef exporter with vast territory and relatively porous borders with both Russia and Belarus - other potential black markets.� Considering the risks of a widespread outbreak in Eastern Europe, the rest of the world may choose not to wait for further evidence and may ban all beef from the region - shooting an arrow into the heart of Central Europe's agricultural economy.