Maybe if communities had access to on line technology, education and capital/jobs based on performance starting in the early ninties, their would be real economic productivity bottom up. Also, Wall Street wanted it all killed and American dumbed down. Here is what they get... ==================================================================== The fall in earnings at investment banks and brokerage houses portends a severe turndown. Merrill Lynch�s earnings are off 50%, Goldman Sachs 24% and Morgan Stanley 36%. The next 90 days will bring some momentous decisions in the industry. M&A is off 40% from last year in the first six months of the year and IPO�s 59%. At Morgan Stanley M&A fell 55% and IPO�s 29% and at Goldman Sachs banking revenues fell 50%. All firms have begun to cut commissions for brokers usually from 45% to 25%. Worse there is no evidence it will get better soon and in fact it looks like the situation will worsen. Merrill had 72,000 brokers last year. We expect 50,000 this year. Decimalization is bringing about the end of payment for order flow, which we consider criminal. It will wipe out tens of millions of dollars in payments now booked each year by on-line brokers. The practice is a definite conflict of interest by the order taking brokerage, because it penalizes a retail customer�s order. Eventually, as spreads close up, market-making brokers will go out of business and all orders will be posted on an electronic bulletin board for all to see. You will then sell or buy through your broker off the board and the cost of the traders will be gone as will their perpetual shorting. The S&P 500 Index is 23 times projected 2001 earnings and 19.5 times 2002 earnings. We believe the 2001 earnings are inflated by 20% and 2002 by 30%. Historically the Index has reflected 14 times earnings. Today non-tech portions of the S&P reflect 15 times earnings, but the tech sector is still 30 times. As you can see if we are correct a major correction will take place in the S&P and Dow this year and another correction in 2002. -----Original Message----- From: Robert Chapman [mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED]] Sent: Saturday, June 30, 2001 9:37 PM Subject: June 2001 (4) IF THE INTERNATIONAL FORECASTER 30 June 01 - Issue #4 An international financial, economic, political and social commentary. Published and Edited by: Bob Chapman Vol. 5- No. 6-4 Phone & Fax: 941 639 4756 E-mail: [EMAIL PROTECTED] UPCOMING CONFERENCE Bob Chapman will be a keynote speaker at the following conference.
