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Gertz: Beijing more cautious of Bush
National-security expert says W's warning on Taiwan taken seriously

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By Jon Dougherty
© 2001 WorldNetDaily.com

One of the nation's foremost national-security reporters has hinted to a
Taiwanese newspaper that China's leaders are more cautious of U.S. power
under the leadership of President George W. Bush than they were under the
administration of former President Bill Clinton.

Bill Gertz, a national-security correspondent for The Washington Times and
author of two books on China's growing threat to the United States, also said
that "people who are pro-China and who want to play down danger from China"
are dominating U.S.-Sino policy debate.

"This is a real problem. It is not so much a question of right or wrong.
[But] these people have a predominant view in the government and within the
academic community," Gertz told The Taipei Times newspaper.

"And they don't want to listen to any other debate. If they disagree with
you, they attack you as right-wingers. I have been labeled with some of the
[same] accusations. But clearly there needs to be a re-evaluation of the
situation," he said.

Gertz said his most recent book, "The China Threat," examines "what Beijing
calls the 'China threat theory.'"

"One of the highest priorities of Chinese intelligence and diplomatic
personnel – not just in the U.S. but around the world – is to monitor what
they call the China threat theory," Gertz told the paper. "According to their
military writings, they understand there will be a certain period when people
will recognize China as a threat. They actually calculate the time – from
2020 to 2030. They call this the dangerous decade."

Gertz said the problem with U.S. policy towards China today is that it is
fashioned on the same policy adopted by official Washington during the Nixon
administration and, hence, is outmoded.

"The people who formulated that policy want to continue that policy. They do
not want to evaluate. My argument is that we need now to re-evaluate the U.S.
policy toward China," he said.

Regarding how Chinese leaders view President Bush, as compared to Bush's
predecessor, Bill Clinton, the reporter said he believes Beijing is taking
the current occupant of 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue much more seriously.

"I recall a situation that was related to me by a defense official. Adm.
Dennis Blair [commander in chief of the U.S. Pacific forces] went to China a
year or so ago," Gertz told the paper. "He tried to clarify the U.S. position
on Taiwan as that the U.S. would defend Taiwan if it were attacked. And I was
told that the Chinese dismissed at the time Blair's statement as laughable
bluster."

However, he said recent Bush comments committing to the defense of Taiwan
were "as valuable as Aegis missile ships."

"I was told by reliable U.S. defense sources that China's interpretation of
President Bush's remarks was that not only would the U.S. use conventional
forces against China, but nuclear forces as well," he said.

"I think it is really important that the president clarifies that," Gertz
added.

Gertz has been considered a "must-read" reporter for many national-security,
defense and military policymakers and analysts in the United States and
abroad. His sources have been described both as impeccable and unusually
reliable – so much so that at times he has come under scrutiny for divulging
too much information.




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