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Peace at any cost is a Prelude to War!

Russia and China forge pact against 'Star Wars'
By Damien McElroy in Beijing, David Wastell in Washington and Craig Nelson in
Moscow
(Filed: 15/07/2001)


CHINA and Russia will strengthen their alliance against America's accelerated
plans for a missile defence system when President Jiang Zemin arrives in
Moscow today for talks with Vladimir Putin, his host and counterpart.

As the Pentagon begins assessing the results of last night's missile defence
test over the Pacific, the first for almost a year, the Russian and Chinese
leaders are preparing to sign a new "friendship" pact to cement their joint
effort to contain America's growing global power.

The high point of the summit will be a signing ceremony for the new anti-
Western accord, the Good Neighbourly Treaty of Friendship and Co-operation,
which might have been drawn up in the heyday of the old Sino-Soviet alliance.

Although the new treaty is universally described as "bland" by Western
diplomats in the Chinese capital, it is symbolic of the warmer ties that
Russia and China have forged in recent years over their shared resentment of
America's dominant superpower role.

China is deeply opposed to President George W. Bush's plans for a "Star Wars"
missile shield, which would render its small arsenal of nuclear missiles
obsolete.

In his second meeting with Mr Putin in a month, Mr Jiang will press the
Russian leader to continue opposing missile defence and to resist American
blandishments to scrap or amend the Anti-Ballistic Missile (ABM) treaty.

Their meeting was given fresh urgency by last week's Pentagon announcement of
an expanded missile defence test programme, starting with the attempted
interception of a missile over the Pacific in the early hours of this morning.

Mr Bush has given the go-ahead for preparations to build underground silos at
Fort Greely, Alaska, to house a battery of test interceptor rockets, which
could also be used for emergency defence purposes by 2004.

Mr Bush will resume talks with Mr Putin, first started at a meeting in
Slovenia last month, at next weekend's Group of Eight meeting of the world's
strongest economic powers, plus Russia, in Genoa, Italy.

Bush administration officials hope that Mr Putin will, in the end, agree to
missile defence as part of a "new strategic framework" between the two
countries.

Condoleezza Rice, Mr Bush's National Security Adviser, said: "We need to move
past where we are with the ABM treaty to something that more properly
reflects the new relationship with Russia."

Donald Rumsfeld, the Defence Secretary, said he believed that Russia would
agree to such an arrangement - but that if it did not, America would give the
required six months' notice before breaching the treaty.


Beijing is worried that Mr Putin will eventually agree to a compromise with
Mr Bush and assent to the system's deployment, leaving China isolated in its
attempt to block it.

According to one diplomat in Beijing, Mr Jiang is growing frustrated at Mr
Putin's proclivity for "telling lots of different people what they want to
hear".

The missile defence test scheduled for this morning was due to involve the
launch of a trial interceptor rocket from a remote atoll on the Marshall
Islands, to see whether it could destroy a long-range missile with a dummy
warhead launched from California.

Two of the previous three interceptor tests failed, most recently last July
when the "kill vehicle" failed to separate from the booster rocket.

Pentagon officials, however, stressed that whatever the result of the test, a
further nine have been scheduled over the next few months; even a failure
would provide "valuable data" for the defence programme.

Moscow and Beijing would appear to share several defence and strategic
interests.

Russia wants to preserve its nuclear deterrent while China is developing one
- hence their opposition to the missile defence shield.

Both are also eager to combat what they view as the spread of Islamic
fundamentalism in central Asia.

Each side fears that successful insurgencies there will embolden separatist
minorities inside their own borders.

China's People's Liberation Army has also emerged as one of the biggest
customers for Russia's arms industry, with contracts worth more than £1
billion this year.

Powerful tensions beneath the surface, however, mean that Russia remains
sufficiently distrustful of China to restrict most arms sales to obsolete
systems or defensive technology.

Analysts say the renewed amiability could easily turn sour.

Zbigniew Brzezinski, the former American National Security Adviser, said:
"The friendship treaty is just a piece of paper, with a bunch of empty-headed
geopoliticians on both sides thinking they're pulling off a coup. It's kind
of comical. It changes nothing on the ground."

The Slavic mistrust of China and Asia that stretches back to the 13th-century
Mongol invasion is rising in Russia.

Old fears are escalating, especially in Siberia and the Russian Far East, as
Chinese migrants stream across the border in search of arable land and
economic opportunities.

Some Russian analysts fear that Mr Putin's attempt to forge an alliance with
Beijing may only highlight Russia's deficiencies: they would prefer stronger
links with Europe and America.

Given that China's economy is eight times Russia's and the country is 10
times more populous, Moscow would be as much a junior partner in any
long-term alliance with the East as it would with the West.




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