-Caveat Lector-
Wednesday August 1 2:07 PM ET
World Population Set to Peak at 9 Billion -Experts
By Patricia Reaney
LONDON (Reuters) - The world's population will probably peak at about 9
billion around 2070 before it starts to decline, scientists predicted
Wednesday.
Demographers at a think tank in Austria calculate that by the turn of the
century the number of people on the planet will have dropped down to 8.4
billion people.
They also predict the population will be older, with up to 40 percent aged
over 60 by 2100.
``We see the end of world population growth on the horizon. But the level of
population size and the speed of increase will depend on policy and
development in the different regions,'' Wolfgang Lutz said in a telephone
interview.
But Lutz, a demographer at the International Institute for Applied Systems
Analysis in Laxenburg, said the predictions reported in the science journal
Nature should not mean the end of population concerns because populations
will still be increasing in some of the world's poorest areas.
``Some of the most vulnerable regions, such as sub-Saharan Africa or South
Asia, will still see very significant population growth,'' he added.
Although it is impossible to predict what will happen in future centuries, Lutz
and his colleagues believe the 9 billion figure could be an all-time high for
world population.
``Population aging will be the dominant population issue of this century
because the decline in fertility together with further increasing life expectancy
in most parts of the world except Africa will result in a significant change in
the age structure,'' said Lutz.
NUMBER OF ELDERLY TO RISE
In most European countries people over 60 make up 20 percent of the
population. Lutz and his team predict that by the middle of the century the
figure will rise to 35 percent and reach 45 percent by 2100.
They believe China's percentage of elderly will triple from 10 percent today to
30 percent by 2050. In Japan the elderly will comprise half the population by
the turn of the century.
The scientists said life expectancy would continue to rise, except in part of
Africa where the HIV (news - web sites)/AIDS (news - web sites) epidemic
has taken a very heavy toll.
According to the scientists a fertility rate of 2.1 children is needed to replace
one generation with another. Many countries already have rates below that
figure.
The greater number of elderly will increase pressure on social security
services and demand for care of the elderly and may necessitate changes in
working habits, according to Lutz.
But he added that declining numbers after the peak would be good news for
sustainable development because fewer people would cause less damage
to the environment.
Lutz and his colleagues based their predictions on many different simulations
of future world populations and data from a recent U.S. National Academy of
Science report.
Steve Wingate, Webmaster
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