-Caveat Lector- From http://www.economist.com/world/africa/displayStory.cfm?Story_ID=719184 >>Graphix @ site<< }}>Begin Caspian oil Storm in a precious teacup Aug 2nd 2001 | MOSCOW >From The Economist print edition Little naval clashes over oil rights could be serious IT SOUNDS like the opening lines of a military planner's scenario for the third world war. The countries involved are a rough bunch and their leaders, in varying degrees, ill, weak, ruthless or mad. Two of the countries are heavily armed. A vital western interest is at stake: billions of dollars' worth of oil. Last week an Iranian naval vessel forced two oil-exploration ships, British- owned and run jointly with an Azerbaijani company, away from a disputed bit of the Caspian Sea. Iran then sent military aircraft twice into air space claimed by Azerbaijan and said that, as the borders were not determined, it was doing nothing wrong. The Iranian ambassador mysteriously left Baku, Azerbaijan's capital. A report in the semi-official Tehran Times on July 26th raised the temperature further. “Following the imprudent act of Azerbaijan, supported by Britain, Iran has deployed its military ground forces to the Iran-Azerbaijan borders,” it said. The Azerbaijani media meanwhile quoted a senior Iranian official recalling that Azerbaijan was once an Iranian province. “Leaders of Azerbaijan should rule their country in a way that will not make Tehran think of reclaiming Azerbaijani territory,” he supposedly said. True or not, Azerbaijani officials responded in kind. Aliar Safarli, a former ambassador to Tehran, claimed to have evidence that “every year Iran allocates over $50m for acts of sabotage in Azerbaijan.” Nothing very bad has actually happened so far. But the row highlights the decade-old failure to decide how to divide the Caspian Sea, and its mineral resources, after the Soviet Union's collapse. The argument revolves round an arcane principle of international law governing maritime borders. Two of the new countries bordering the Caspian, Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan, want it treated as a sea, entitling them to their own territorial zones. Russia and Iran say their Soviet-era treaties make it a lake, which under international law would mean that most of it would be jointly owned and managed—giving them a bigger slice. The two are broadly backed by the fifth country, Turkmenistan, although its megalomaniac leadership is notoriously unpredictable. None of this would matter if it were not for the oil beneath the Caspian. All five countries want their share, or preferably rather more than their share, of the estimated 70 billion to 200 billion barrels. None of them is good at negotiating constructively. The West broadly backs Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan, where their oil companies have invested heavily. But only Russia and Iran have a significant naval presence in the Caspian. Russia is urging calm in the current row but has also been flexing its muscles of late. In January its Caspian fleet conducted exercises with live ammunition. Its warships then anchored off Baku, asking for permission only after they had done so. Last month Russian officials announced that three powerful new ships were joining the fleet. It has also leant heavily on the Azerbaijanis to stop Chechens using their country as a base for propaganda. Plenty of other rows smoulder in the region, too. Azerbaijan's relations with Iran have become strained of late. The large Azeri-speaking population in northern Iran feels put-upon. It would like more rights for its language (akin to Turkish) and culture. Some Azeri nationalists dream of unifying all their compatriots in one country. Iran sees a western-backed, pan-Turkic conspiracy behind such talk while Azerbaijan's authoritarian secular leadership sees Islamic plots behind every minaret. The country's ailing president, Heidar Aliev, is due to visit Tehran this month, for what should—if it happens—be an interesting exchange of views. A third quarrel drags on between Azerbaijan and Turkmenistan, a gas-rich dictatorship to the east of the Caspian. This is about gas debts from the early 1990s, which Azerbaijan says were incurred by private companies. Turkmenistan wants Azerbaijan to pay and has closed its embassy in Baku as a sign of its displeasure. It now looks as though tempers are cooling. The British oil company involved, BP, has suspended drilling in the disputed oilfield. The report of Iranian troop movements was subsequently denied. The Iranian ambassador to Baku is due to return shortly. The presidents of all the Caspian countries are due to meet in the autumn. But it is worrying, nonetheless. Copyright © 2001 The Economist Newspaper and The Economist Group. All rights reserved. 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