-Caveat Lector- Israeli army warns of all-out war By Alan Philps in Jerusalem (Filed: 17/08/2001) THE violence of the intifada, or Palestinian uprising, could last for five years or lead to a full-scale war, according to an assessment by the Israeli army. The general staff believe that the Palestinian leader, Yasser Arafat, is in such a weak position that he is not able to impose anything more than a lull in the violence, and could lose control completely. The prediction is contained in the army's annual strategic assessment, being prepared for the chief of staff, Lt-Gen Shaul Mofaz. After 10 months of clashes, the newspaper Ha'aretz, which published excerpts of Israeli military thinking, said the two fronts - against the Palestinians and along the northern border with Lebanon - were "stable but fragile". But an incident such as a bombing with heavy casualties could tip the region into war. Israel's most respected military commentator, Ze'ev Schiff, said the army was "turning the clock back" to the 1950s, when retaliatory raids against Arab countries were the norm. If raids continued against Palestinian towns and the number of Palestinian casualties rose, he wrote, "the situation will continue to deteriorate until it finally reaches all-out war". An equally pessimistic view of the prospects for diplomatic progress comes from the Anglo-Palestinian academic Dr Yezid Sayigh, who predicts that the current conflict will last until the end of this year, and probably at least through 2002. Dr Sayigh says Mr Arafat bears much of the responsibility for the catastrophic situation in the Palestinian territories, because of the "absence of a clear purpose" he has shown in the past 10 months. Although successive Israeli governments served to bring down the peace process, "Arafat is guilty of strategic misjudgment, with consequences for the Palestinians of potentially historic proportions," Dr Sayigh writes in Survival, a publication of the International Institute for Strategic Studies. The intifada has shifted the political ground in Israel to a more hardline position. To reverse the damage would require "discipline and political vision", and Mr Arafat would have to act "in a manner alien to him". Dr Sayigh predicts three possible scenarios: a continuing guerrilla campaign, the destruction by the Israelis of the Palestinian Authority or the disintegration of the authority under Israeli pressure. Benedict Brogan, Political Correspondent, writes: The British Government refused yesterday; to suspend arms sales to Israel and rejected calls for a European arms embargo as a response to the worsening violence in the occupied territories. Amnesty International backed an appeal from the Palestinian Authority and the Liberal Democrats for a ban on the sale of military equipment, claiming that it was being used as part of Israeli efforts to enforce its control of the territories. But Ben Bradshaw, the Foreign Office minister, said Britain accepted Isreali assurances that exports were not being used against the Palestinians. He told the BBC's World and One programme that military sales to Isreal were "miniscule" and added: "Basically, America arms Israel." To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to: [EMAIL PROTECTED] Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/ <A HREF="http://www.ctrl.org/";>www.ctrl.org</A> DECLARATION & DISCLAIMER ========== CTRL is a discussion & informational exchange list. Proselytizing propagandic screeds are unwelcomed. Substance�not soap-boxing�please! These are sordid matters and 'conspiracy theory'�with its many half-truths, mis- directions and outright frauds�is used politically by different groups with major and minor effects spread throughout the spectrum of time and thought. That being said, CTRLgives no endorsement to the validity of posts, and always suggests to readers; be wary of what you read. CTRL gives no credence to Holocaust denial and nazi's need not apply. Let us please be civil and as always, Caveat Lector. ======================================================================== Archives Available at: http://peach.ease.lsoft.com/archives/ctrl.html <A HREF="http://peach.ease.lsoft.com/archives/ctrl.html";>Archives of [EMAIL PROTECTED]</A> http:[EMAIL PROTECTED]/ <A HREF="http:[EMAIL PROTECTED]/";>ctrl</A> ======================================================================== To subscribe to Conspiracy Theory Research List[CTRL] send email: SUBSCRIBE CTRL [to:] [EMAIL PROTECTED] To UNsubscribe to Conspiracy Theory Research List[CTRL] send email: SIGNOFF CTRL [to:] [EMAIL PROTECTED] Om
