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From
http://www.cnsnews.com/ForeignBureaus/archive/200108/For20010829b.html

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Macedonia Rebels Surrendering Too Few Weapons, Analyst Says
By Beth Kampschror
CNSNews.com Correspondent
August 29, 2001
Sarajevo (CNSNews.com) - The number of weapons ethnic Albanian rebels in
Macedonia are scheduled to hand over to NATO troops as part of a peace
deal is too low, a military analyst warned Wednesday.
"It's a ridiculously low figure," said Richard Bennett of the 3,300 weapons
NATO expects to collect from the self-styled National Liberation Army (NLA).
"It's a figure that has been given to NATO by the Albanians themselves. It's
probably about 10 percent of what they've actually got in their possession,"
added Bennett, a senior analyst with the UK-based Armed Forces
Intelligence (AFI) Research.
The NLA is supposed to turn over the weapons as part of NATO's Operation
Essential Harvest, which is aimed at keeping Macedonia from sliding into
civil war.
The rebel group began its insurgency in February, saying they were fighting
for more rights for Macedonia's sizeable ethnic Albanian minority. The
government believes the rebels were trying to carve out an Albanian mini-s
tate and charges that the trouble has been imported from neighboring Kosovo, where 
ethnic Albanians are in the majority.
The Macedonian government puts the number of NLA weapons as high as 85,000. Bennett 
said in a phone interview that sounded like a more accurate figure.
"I doubt they have actually got that in their hot little hands," he said, but added 
that all the NLA has to do is cross the relatively open border into Kosovo to find all 
the weapons they need.
There are also concerns that the NLA is keeping back its most effective weapons and 
giving NATO its oldest and least effective ones.
Macedonian government spokesperson Antonio Milososki said earlier the operation should 
be called "Museum Harvest" because of the age of the several hundred weapons already 
turned in to the British-led NATO force.
"I wouldn't disagree with that for a second," Bennett said. "The NLA is getting rid of 
arms that are no use to them. NATO's basically doing a dustman's job - a garbage 
removal job for the NLA."
Bennett said that the NLA, like all guerrilla organizations, doesn't want weapons that 
are difficult to maintain or to hide. A tank, for instance, would be of no operational 
value in this case but would give NATO somethin
g to show to the media, he said.
"[The valuable weapons] will either be buried or be taken safely back across the 
border into Kosovo for further use," he said.
Bennett said NATO had a "golden opportunity" to disarm the ethnic Albanians in Kosovo 
when the alliance took over the province in 1999, after its air campaign against 
Yugoslav forces. But neither disarmament nor demobiliz
ation took place, with dire consequences for Macedonia.
"It's shutting the stable door after the horse has bolted," he said.
Earlier, defense analyst Philip Mitchell of the International Institute for Strategic 
Studies in London said the success of the NATO mission would have to be judged on the 
quality and quantity of weapons surrendered.
"Even then, given the fact that entire region is awash with weapons ... however many 
weapons are handed in, it's true to say they could quickly be replaced by what is 
hidden in the mountains of Kosovo, just over the borde
r," he said.
NATO Secretary-General George Robertson is in Macedonia Wednesday to
inspect Essential Harvest, though tensions in the country have not subsided.
The state news agency reported that a bomb went off at an ethnic Albanian
primary school after midnight last night. No casualties were reported.
The NLA agreed to disarm only if political changes granting ethnic Albanians
in Macedonia more rights were imminent.
An agreement reached earlier this month aims to give the Albanian language
semi-official status and to ethnically balance the country's police forces.
Parliament is expected to begin debating the changes Friday.
See also:
NATO's Latest Balkans Mission May Exceed Time Limit (Aug 23, 2001)

End<{{
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