-Caveat Lector-

http://www.cia.gov/cia/public_affairs/speeches/UNCLASWWT_02072001.html

TRANSNATIONAL ISSUES

We have made considerable progress on terrorism against US interests and
facilities, Mr. Chairman, but it persists. The most dramatic and recent
evidence, of course, is the loss of 17 of our men and women on the USS Cole
at the hands of terrorists.

The threat from terrorism is real, it is immediate, and it is evolving.
State sponsored terrorism appears to have declined over the past five years,
but transnational groups�with decentralized leadership that makes them
harder to identify and disrupt�are emerging. We are seeing fewer centrally
controlled operations, and more acts initiated and executed at lower levels.

Terrorists are also becoming more operationally adept and more technically
sophisticated in order to defeat counterterrorism measures. For example, as
we have increased security around government and military facilities,
terrorists are seeking out "softer" targets that provide opportunities for
mass casualties. Employing increasingly advanced devices and using
strategies such as simultaneous attacks, the number of people killed or
injured in international terrorist attacks rose dramatically in the 1990s,
despite a general decline in the number of incidents. Approximately
one-third of these incidents involved US interests.

Usama bin Ladin and his global network of lieutenants and associates remain
the most immediate and serious threat. Since 1998, Bin Ladin has declared
all US citizens legitimate targets of attack. As shown by the bombing of our
Embassies in Africa in 1998 and his Millennium plots last year, he is
capable of planning multiple attacks with little or no warning.

His organization is continuing to place emphasis on developing surrogates to
carry out attacks in an effort to avoid detection, blame, and retaliation.
As a result it is often difficult to attribute terrorist incidents to his
group, Al Qa�ida.

Beyond Bin Ladin, the terrorist threat to Israel and to participants in the
Middle East peace negotiations has increased in the midst of continuing
Palestinian-Israeli violence. Palestinian rejectionists�including HAMAS and
the Palestine Islamic Jihad (PIJ)�have stepped up violent attacks against
Israeli interests since October. The terrorist threat to US interests,
because of our friendship with Israel has also increased.

At the same time, Islamic militancy is expanding, and the worldwide pool of
potential recruits for terrorist networks is growing. In central Asia, the
Middle East, and South Asia, Islamic terrorist organizations are trying to
attract new recruits, including under the banner of anti-Americanism.

International terrorist networks have used the explosion in information
technology to advance their capabilities. The same technologies that allow
individual consumers in the United States to search out and buy books in
Australia or India also enable terrorists to raise money, spread their
dogma, find recruits, and plan operations far afield. Some groups are
acquiring rudimentary cyberattack tools. Terrorist groups are actively
searching the internet to acquire information and capabilities for chemical,
biological, radiological, and even nuclear attacks. Many of the 29
officially designated terrorist organizations have an interest in
unconventional weapons, and Usama bin Ladin in 1998 even declared their
acquisition a "religious duty."

Nevertheless, we and our Allies have scored some important successes against
terrorist groups and their plans, which I would like to discuss with you in
closed session later today. Here, in an open session, let me assure you that
the Intelligence Community has designed a robust counterterrorism program
that has preempted, disrupted, and defeated international terrorists and
their activities. In most instances, we have kept terrorists off-balance,
forcing them to worry about their own security and degrading their ability
to plan and conduct operations.

.....
NARCOTICS

Mr. Chairman, drug traffickers are also making themselves more capable and
efficient. The growing diversification of trafficking organizations�with
smaller groups interacting with one another to transfer cocaine from source
to market�and the diversification of routes and methods pose major
challenges for our counterdrug programs. Changing production patterns and
the development of new markets will make further headway against the drug
trade difficult.

Colombia, Bolivia, and Peru continue to supply all of the cocaine consumed
worldwide including in the United States. Colombia is the linchpin of the
global cocaine industry as it is home to the largest coca-growing,
coca-processing, and trafficking operations in the world. With regard to
heroin, nearly all of the world's opium production is concentrated in
Afghanistan and Burma. Production in Afghanistan has been exploding,
accounting for 72 percent of illicit global opium production in 2000.

The drug threat is increasingly intertwined with other threats. For example,
the Taliban regime in Afghanistan, which allows Bin Ladin and other
terrorists to operate on its territory, encourages and profits from the drug
trade. Some Islamic extremists view drug trafficking as a weapon against the
West and a source of revenue to fund their operations.

...

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