-Caveat Lector-

From
http://www.guardian.co.uk/wtccrash/story/0,1300,552385,00.html

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The penknife and the bomb
Brute force is not the way to defeat the terrorist threat
Special report: terrorism in the US
Leader
Saturday September 15, 2001
The Guardian
In one corner stands a man with a penknife. In the opposing corner, a
man with an enormous bomb. The man with the knife, like this week's
plane hijackers, knows that in the coming fight, he may wound his
opponent but he himself will certainly perish.
The man with the bomb also knows that his superior weaponry, if used,
will obliterate his adversary. But both know, if they use their heads
rather than their weapons, that this cannot be the end of the matter.
In the place of the vanquished knifeman will rise two, three ... a
hundred more just like him, just as committed, ever more convinced
that they are right, just as ready to die.
The United States, which is expected in the coming days to launch a
massive military campaign, some call it a war, against terrorism,
should consider this certain consequence before embarking on such
action. And there are
 many other likely, even more perilous ramifications that demand the attention of 
wise, responsible leadership.
The events of last Tuesday rendered unto the American people a true glimpse of hell. 
It was an abomination the likes of which most of us, thankfully, have never witnessed. 
This mass murder of American civilians has sparke
d an international crisis of truly global proportions. It will be prolonged and 
dangerous. Given the undefined goal set by President George Bush and allies such as 
Tony Blair - the rooting out and eradication of "evil" -
it has no obvious limits and no clear end-point. It could dwarf this week's bloodshed.
As we have said, the American people (and non-American victims) deserve every sympathy 
at this traumatic moment. The US government deserves our support, both moral and 
practical. It is entitled to take all reasonable meas
ures to find and punish the culprits. But before Mr Bush sends his enormous bombs to 
obliterate the knifeman, before he risks an uncontrollable, escalating conflagration 
involving both nations that harbour his foes and al
lies who trust in his command, he must stop and think. Congress has voted him an 
extraordinary $40bn in ready cash. Double that and still the bottom-line question 
arises: what, in pragmatic not symbolic terms, is the US r
eally trying to achieve?
This is not an argument for inaction. Far from it. But America's dilemma, once the 
verbiage about "democracy's war" and "freedom's brightest beacon" is cut away, is that 
its military options, to the extent that they are c
urrently understood, are largely unsuited to the task in hand. Indeed, much of what 
appears to be under contemplation will just make matters worse.
For consider: any major air and/or ground attack mounted against Afghanistan in 
pursuit of prime suspect Osama bin Laden will certainly produce civilian casualties. 
It may not produce Bin Laden (who may not even be there)
. Such an attack would inflame Muslim opinion and hand the terrorists a second 
triumph: following Manhattan, here would be the "holy war" they have long sought to 
provoke. If the attacks were repeated, and spread, Pakista
n's nuclear-armed military regime, destabilised and compromised in the eyes of its own 
people, could fall to its own Islamic fundamentalists.
The implications, given Pakistan's ongoing proxy war with India over Kashmir, hardly 
need to be spelled out. And yet the possibility, actively urged by some in Washington, 
that the US may pursue its enemies further afield
, into Iraq for example, or into Lebanon, home to the Iranian-sponsored Hizbullah, is 
even more explosive. At this point, the "war on terrorism" would be fused and confused 
with the whole, bitter Arab-Israeli conflict and
 the Gulf war's unfinished business. Whatever they say now, Russia and China would 
certainly part company with the US; likewise Egypt, Jordan, maybe Saudi Arabia, and 
some European countries.
What price Nato and EU solidarity if the US crosses the line in the Middle East? And 
what price oil? In such a scenario, a global economic crash would surely follow. 
Meanwhile, the man with the knife, inspired by an even
fiercer, righteous fury, will wait his chance.
It does not have to be like this. There is another way. It is less dramatic, less 
visceral, more statesmanlike. It requires of Mr Bush a far greater courage than an 
order to fire. It involves hard-nosed diplomatic coercio
n and painstaking investigation; it requires international
interdiction of terrorist funds; it means the collective, cast-iron
isolation and economic punishment of any state sustaining the
suspects and their associates; it means a longer-term reassessment of
US priorities and policies in central Asia and the Middle East. And
it means a focused, law-based approach requiring the Taliban (if they
have him) to hand over Bin Laden without delay.
Only if they refuse should the US military go and get him. For only
by exploring every legitimate avenue, only by retaining the moral
advantage, only by seeking justice through just and proportionate
means will Americans find the lasting solace and vindication for
which they cry out. In this spurious "clash of civilisations", this
is the civilised way. And only in this way will the skulking knifemen
of tomorrow be disarmed.
Guardian Unlimited � Guardian Newspapers Limited 2001

End<{{{
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