The Dye Is Cast � But It Will Be a
Long Haul
15 September:: The United States if going to war to
avenge itself for the catastrophic hijack-suicide
attacks against the World Trade Center and the
Pentagon.
The first stage of the conflict, according to initial,
conservative estimates, could last two to three years.
Its success will determine the scope and timeframe of
the second phase.
DEBKAfile�s military experts can disclose that the
U.S. 82nd and 101st airborne divisions, or nearly
half of the airborne combat forces at the immediate
disposal of U.S. President George W. Bush, are
currently being airlifted to bases in Pakistan.
The bulk of these forces will be moved to the northern
Punjab region of Pakistan and take up position near
the city of Dera Ismail and in the valleys at the foot
of the Suleiman mountain range, across from their main
target � the Afghan city of Kandahar.
The United States also intends to lay siege to, or
capture, the Afghan cities of Medan, Galdek and Maroof
as well as the Arghastan Valley, where, according to
intelligence provided by Russia, India and Israel,
Osama bin Laden�s forces have been concentrated in
recent months.
The U.S. operations will include air bombardments and
missile strikes against Afghanistan�s principal
cities: Kabul, Jalalabad and Kandahar.
Afghanistan is not the only target. Washington is
planning a three-stage offensive against Iraq with the
participation of U.S., British and Turkish forces.
DEBKAfile�s military sources reported back on Friday,
September 9, that the Turkish army is on a state of
war alert.
Now, our sources add that the Turkish army is poised
along its border with Kurdish northern Iraq. It
intends to invade the Shouman region and capture the
cities of Biyar and Tiwal in the Urman district. The
two cities are controlled by Jund al-Islam, a radical
Muslim group funded by bin Laden.
The United States now understands that the 200 Taleban
fighters who arrived there in mid-July, puzzling many
observers, were members of Bin Laden�s general staff,
pulled out of Afghanistan two months earlier as part
of his preparations for Tuesday�s terror attacks in
New York and Washington. Now they will be quarries of
a US-Turkish hunt in one prong of the thrust into
Iraq.
A simultaneous attack second attack will be
spearheaded in the Basra area by some 30,000 British
soldiers, currently being airlifted into bases in
Oman.
DEBKAfile�s military sources report that two-thirds of
that force was present in Oman Saturday. U.S. and
British planes already based in Kuwait, and in Saudi
Arabia will provide air cover for the British forces
operating Basra - if the Saudi government agrees to
its air bases being used in the U.S. operation.
Prong three of the Iraqi wing of the multiple
offensive will target the central region, including
Baghdad. Airlifted infantry and armor, as well as
missiles and tanks, will be used in an effort to
destroy the Iraqi infrastructure and topple Saddam
Hussein�s regime. No final decision has been made on a
timetable for the three assault waves into Iraq.
These operations, lasting between two and three weeks,
are only the first steps in the coming conflict, which
Bush has described as �the first war of the 21st
century�.
Bin Laden had not been blind to the likelihood of U.S.
retaliation. According to U.S. intelligence estimates,
he and his cohorts have been preparing for months for
the assaults and have readied their response.
Intelligence specialists believe Bin Laden and his
associates, including the Egyptian Islamic Jihad � the
terror master�s main operational arm � will carry out
a series of attacks on U.S. army bases, especially air
and naval facilities, in the United States, Europe and
the Middle East.
For the first time, the Americans have acknowledged
the presence of an enemy within.
Members of bin Laden�s group have been trained by the
U.S. army and some still serve in various U.S.
military units, raising the prospect that attacks
could be launched from within the bases themselves.
(See also separate item on this page.).
Bin Laden�s men will make a supreme effort to attack
aircraft carriers, along with such strategic targets
in the United States, such as CIA headquarters in
Langley, Virginia or FBI headquarters in Washington.
Before the Tuesday�s calamities, this scenario would
have sounded fantastic. Other targets may include
atomic energy stations, where the highest state of
alert is already in effect. U.S. military units rushed
to the stations have set up defensive perimeters
around them. Oil fields and terminals � including, for
the first time, fields in Saudi Arabia and Kuwait --
are other potential targets.
Bush�s ability to wage a drawn-out war will largely
depend on the toll Bin Laden�s reprisals take in terms
of lives and U.S. public support for the president�s
military campaign.
The main question will be - not who will win, but the
price the victor will pay for his victory � and the
loser�s winnings, if any, on his way to defeat. That
defeat may not even be final or lasting.
It�s also important to consider two potential features
of the first stage of this war.
1. It is only a start. Even if the U.S. military
actions in Afghanistan and Iraq are successful � and
there is no guarantee of this � Bin Laden and the
Egyptian Islamic Jihad will still have large pockets
at their command in Yemen, Bosnia, Kosovo, Albania,
Macedonia and several former Soviet Moslem republics.
The largest contingent of Bin Laden-funded Islamic
extremist fighters are deployed in the Faragna Valley
which lies athwart regions of Krygyzstan, Tadjikistan,
Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan. Last year, Bin Laden�s
forces opened up a corridor from Faranga to the
Sinkiang province of northern China, linking up the
Moslem fighters in that strategic valley and militant
Chinese Moslem groups of the Chinese Uighur tribes.
This tribes are undergoing combat training in special
training camps that Bin Laden established in
Afghanistan and Kazakhstan.
There is no knowing now how US strategists mean to
deal with these the forces Bin Laden maintains in
these far-flung regions. They cannot be left out of
the American equation because as long as they exist,
Bin Laden retains an operational capability. Will they
be left to the Russians and Chinese? Perhaps the
Moslem governments of Asia Minor will invite the U.S.
forces or NATO to do the job?
2. This war opens up the potential for nuclear,
chemical and biological weapons us.
U.S. leaders have emphasized since Friday night that
the United States will employ its �entire arsenal� in
the coming campaign. Even British prime minister Tony
Blair, speaking in parliament on Friday, September 14,
noted the danger the West faces from terror attacks
could include nuclear, chemical and biological
weapons.
Israel has voiced strong support for the formation of
an anti-terror coalition. But at this stage, the Bush
administration prefers to bring Syria in � which means
excluding Israeli from - its anti-Bin Laden alliance,
in the hope of providing maneuvering room for Saudi
Arabia to collaborate. Getting Damascus on board would
also sever the Syrian-Iraqi link that has recently
grown stronger, as well as snapping its connection
with the militant Lebanese Hizballah. Those Shiite
extremists would have no option but to break away from
a Syrian government that goes to war against Bin
Laden.
The US war scenario carries advantages for Israel, but
is an ill wind for the Palestinian leader Yasser
Arafat and the relentless campaign of violence he
launched a year ago..
Some Israeli media reported, inaccurately, that
Washington wants the Palestinians in the coalition
fighting Bin Laden.
According to DEBKAfile�s Washington sources, that view
is confined mainly to secretary of state Colin Powell,
who believes Palestinian participation might pave the
way for other Arab countries to join. It might even
help encourage certain European nations made cagey by
their large Moslem populations and economic and
strategic links to oil states in North Africa and the
Middle East, to take up arms against the Saudi
terrorist leader.
Israeli prime minister Ariel Sharon, who strongly
opposes a Palestinian role in the US-led bloc of
nations against Bin Laden, made his views clear to
President Bush when they talked over the telephone on
Friday.
The next day, Abu Ala, Palestinian parliament Speaker,
termed the suicide terror attacks in New York and
Washington saddening. But, he said, the world must
understand that the real terrorism was that committed
by Israel against the Palestinians. Addressing a
Palestinian cabinet meeting, Abu Ala said Sharon was
well aware that a meeting between foreign minister
Shimon Peres and Yasser Arafat would be tantamount to
Israeli recognition of the legitimacy of the
Palestinian struggle.
That was the point Sharon made to Bush over the phone
and the reason why he was prepared for a major row
with Peres to prevent the meeting taking place.
It is his understanding too that Israel will not be
called upon for an active role in the first stage of
the American confrontation with Iraq and the Bin Laden
terrorist movement. But he expects to be called upon
in the next stage.
In an extraordinary encounter in Washington Friday,
September 14, Arab ambassadors bombarded Secretary
Powell and other administration officials with
questions about the nature, form and objectives of the
planned US military retaliation. US officials rapped
out that they did not want questions only a single
answer from all the Arab governments: Were they for or
against America.
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