September 17, 2001
http://www.counterpunch.org

The Hunt for Bin Laden Zeroes Out

By Alexander Cockburn and Jeffrey St. Clair

The world's most wanted man, now magnified in the US press to mythic
reach and wealth, has been the target of some hilariously inept US
missions, Patrick Cockburn reports from Moscow.

"Russians are astonished by the US intelligence failure that allowed as
many as 50 people to plot and train for their attacks on the World Trade
Center and the Pentagon for 18 months. But the efforts of the US
consulate in Peshawar, in the northwest province of Pakistan on the
Afghan border, to trace and capture Osama bin Laden suggest an operation
of extraordinary amateurism. In a bid to find him, the consulate last
year distributed free matchboxes with a picture of Mr. bin Laden on the
front and a message in Urdu offering $500,000 for information leading to
his capture. It also promised confidentiality and asylum in the US for
anybody who supplied the information.

"The chances of the matchbox ploy producing results was never high and
may have been further reduced by a serious misprint: the consulate had
intended to offer potential informants $5m but the printer accidentally
omitted a zero, reducing the reward by a factor of ten.

"At the same time as the matchboxes were distributed, shopkeepers in
Peshawar were surprised to discover that hundreds of 100-rupee notes
written in the Pashto and Dari languages were also in circulation,
overprinted with a message offering a reward for bin Laden. The US
consulate denies having distributed the notes."

Is "Surprise" Ever Truly Surprising?
There's now plenty of evidence, some of it initially surfaced by
CounterPunch, that before the September 11 attacks, US intelligence and
security services knew something was in the offing.

A quick look at some other notorious surprises confirms the fact that
almost always there's some foreknowledge on the part of the target
nation, but the information is shelved for a variety of reasons, some of
them malign.

Take the most famous surprise in American history: Pearl Harbor. Even
leaving possible foreknowledge by President Roosevelt aside, it is
beyond dispute now that US Naval Intelligence was well aware of Japanese
plans for an attack. For example, the US ambassador in Tokyo, Joseph
Grew, was told by a Peruvian diplomat that an attack was imminent.

The so-called "winds intercept" refers to a radio message from the
Japanese carrier force in the North Pacific, indicating that Japan was
about to implement its attack plan. Again, there is no question that US
Naval Intelligence intercepted this message. Added to other testimony we
have CounterPunch's own direct knowledge of a woman who, in World War
Two, supervised the US Navy's most secure and secret files in a Pentagon
basement. Among super-sensitive documents in one safe was a copy of the
Winds intercept, which she read. In the closing months of the war the
Winds intercept disappeared from the file.

Another supposed surprise to America was China's sudden, devastating
intervention in the Korean War. In fact a top level Chinese Communist,
Chou En Lai, summoned the Indian ambassador before the attack and gave
clear warning of what the Chinese would do if America continued its
drive north. Frantic warnings were sent to General Douglas McArthur,
directing UN forces in Korea. The warnings were disregarded.

Nor was the Tet offensive, so devastating to US morale in the Vietnam
war, a surprise to US intelligence officers, who sent both President
Lyndon Johnson and General Westmoreland briefings on the impending
attacks, only to be told to rewrite the reports, which contradicted rosy
assumptions of the weakness of the Vietnamese NVA and NLF.

A CIA analyst called Fred Fear accurately predicted Yom Kippur war,
Egyptian leader Anwar Sadat's stunning attack on Israeli forces across
the Suez Canal in 1973. Months earlier Fear noted heavy purchases of
bridging equipment by the Egyptians. From the orders, he deduced the
size of the Egyptian force and the number and whereabouts of the
bridges. He also drew a map. His report was filed and forgotten. When
the attack came on October 6, 1973, his superiors pulled his report out
of the files, tore out his map and sent it to the White House, relabeled
as "current intelligence".

The arrival of the Muslim suicide truck driver who blew up the Marine
barracks outside Beirut in 1983, killing over 200 was preceded by plenty
of warnings. And as for Saddam Hussein's invasion of Kuwait in 1990, as
the world later learned, US envoy April Glaspie had earlier told Saddam
that possible border adjustments between Iraq and Kuwait were not a
concern of the United States. CP

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