-Caveat Lector-
Aviation Week & Space Technology
October 1, 2001
Pg. 28
Afghanistan Crash Reveals U.S. Intel Operation
By David A. Fulghum, Washington
Don't expect massive bombing attacks on Afghanistan, say U.S. officials.
Much of the movement to the region is a show of force. The current plan is
for a few air strikes by small packages of aircraft, given the low state of
Afghan air defenses. Targets are expected to be the poppy fields that have
helped fund Taliban operations. "The number of militarily significant
targets you can count on your fingers and toes," a senior Air Force
official said. U.S. aircraft based in the Central Asian republics will be
support, combat search-and-rescue, airlift and reconnaissance aircraft, but
not bombing and strike aircraft, he said. The skill that will be honed
during operations in Afghanistan is that of hitting a moving target. Keys
to this process will be long-term surveillance and then quick reaction once
a "fleeting target" like a car or group of people starts moving. They have
to be identified, tracked and struck within minutes "before they can hide
again," the official said. A fundamental change from combat in the past
would be in allowing such decisions to be made at the scene. The Air Force
has the fast-response capability, which involves specialized data links,
tight surveillance and instantaneous command and control tied to "trigger
pullers on the ground and in the air," he said. "The challenge is to be in
the right place at the right time with the right information. We can't do
it if we have to go through the National Security Agency and inside the
Beltway so some [bureaucrat] can have his say first."
The first U.S. aircraft has already been lost in the newly declared war
against terrorists.
It was a General Atomics-built unmanned aerial vehicle operated by the
Central Intelligence Agency and, given its operational range of
400-500-mi., flown from a base in one of the Central Asian republics. Seven
years ago, the CIA flew UAVs from Albania to monitor Serbian participation
in the
Bosnia conflict ( AW&ST Jan. 31, 1994, p. 20).
The agency's General Atomics-built I-Gnats have been fitted with a new,
miniaturized synthetic aperture radar, called Lynx, that in its spotlight
mode can register details as small as 4 in. (including tire tracks in sand
or footprints in mud) at a range of 16 mi. That means darkness, rain and
clouds no longer offer safety of movement for guerrillas. The radar system
can detect moving targets and very small changes in a scene between one
pass and the next. It also can be upgraded for 3D imaging or aerial combat
identification of targets tagged by special forces.
THE INITIAL, intelligence-gathering stage of this campaign will be
conducted largely by manned and unmanned reconnaissance aircraft. They must
supply crucial data for planning future operations. Against them will be
pitted a wide range of low-altitude, antiaircraft machine guns, cannon and
missiles.
The UAV went down near Tashkurghan Pass in Samangan province in northern
Afghanistan near the border with Uzbekistan. It was apparently tracking the
fighting between Northern Alliance and Taliban militia troops. The Northern
Alliance appears to be trying to retake Mazar-e-Sharif (just south of the
intersection of Uzbekistan, Tajikistan and Afghanistan) which has a large
Shiite population that was decimated by the Taliban after the town's
capture. It also has a large military airfield that would increase the
Northern Alliance's ability to shuttle supplies from Tajikistan and
Uzbekistan, whose governments have turned a blind eye to the clandestine
anti-Taliban operations.
Taliban officials say the UAV was shot down. U.S. officials say it was more
likely an equipment failure, given the difficulties in shooting down an
object that you can't see or hear using short-range weapons. Even
shoulder-fired antiaircraft missiles can only reach up to about 14,000 ft.
at best.
The Gnat-class of aircraft can't fly as high (above 20,000 ft.) or orbit
the battlefield as long as the larger, Air Force-operated Predator, but it
is still hard to see or hear and seldom comes within the range of small
arms.
U.S. officials suspect failure of the engine, a servo that manipulates the
control surfaces or some other piece of on-board equipment.
The CIA has had considerable experience operating its small fleet of manned
and unmanned aircraft from unusual places to watch military and terrorist
activities, such as the Japanese Embassy takeover in Lima, Peru. The Gnat
UAVs can extend their range--limited by line-of-sight communications--by
using another Gnat or a manned aircraft as a relay, a method used when
operating over Yugoslavia from Albania. Manned reconnaissance and relay
aircraft used by the CIA include the Schweizer single-engine RG-8A and
two-engine RU-38A Twin Condor.
Both the very long-range, high-altitude Global Hawk and the Air Force's
medium-altitude, 8-12-hr. endurance Predator are expected to be flying in
support of operations in Afghanistan soon.
DEPLOYMENT HAS BEEN slowed by a bureaucratic fight. Pentagon officials
split over whether to deploy the aircraft immediately or wait until
communications upgrades are completed to make its communications and
command-and-control links interoperable with the other services. The Air
Force says that any diversion will slow the deployment, which requires the
full attention of Predator program officials. Even without Pentagon
interference, UAV specialists says it takes about 30 days to be
operational.
How much would the primitive Afghanistan air defenses threaten U.S.
reconnaissance and, later, strike or troop insertion aircraft that would
need to penetrate into the country's interior? Not much, U.S. officials
believe, against aircraft operating at medium and high altitudes. Some
surveys of military force say the Taliban had access to the SA-2 and SA-3,
but such aging systems need maintenance and professional crews and have not
been assessed as a significant threat. The introduction of modern high- or
medium-altitude surface-to-air missiles seems unlikely. The Northern
Alliance recently struck Kabul airport with rocket-firing helicopters and
escaped unscathed.
Russian-made antiaircraft guns range from the 12.7-mm. (roughly
0.50-caliber) NSV heavy machine gun through the 14.5-mm. ZPU in single,
double or four-barrel mountings to the ZU-23 23-mm. cannon in single and
double towed carriages.
China North Industries Corp. has been exporting its versions of the ZPU and
a new Type 85 that is 58% lighter, making them easier to transport by
infantry in rough terrain. Iran and Egypt also make and export versions of
the weapon.
SHOULDER-FIRED antiaircraft missiles that track the infrared signature of
aircraft are probably the major threat in Afghanistan. There are a few
U.S.-supplied Stingers (intelligence estimates are around 100) still in
Afghan hands, but few think they are still effective. More available, and
probably more reliable at this late date, are the Russian-designed SA-7
through SA-18 family. The missiles are also built by Yugoslavia, Bulgaria,
China, Pakistan and others. They are variously know as the Strela 2 (SA-7
Grail) and Strela 3 (SA-14 Gremlin), the latter effective against
approaching targets. More advanced variants are the Igla (SA-18 Grouse),
which is designed to ignore decoys, and Ingla-1 (SA-16 Gimlet), the single
most effective Iraqi antiaircraft weapon used in the 1990-91 Persian Gulf
war.
China builds and sells a shoulder-fired weapon called the HN-5/5A/5B and a
similar, derivative missile built by Pakistan as the Anza (Lance) Mk. 1/2.
Both combine Stinger and Igla technology. There also is an improved version
of the Chinese missile called the QW-1 Vanguard that is now on the market.
Egypt sells the Falcon Eye, an improved SA-7b. All three are in service in
Afghanistan. Russian Igla and U.S. Stinger technology fed China's QW-1
development, which in turn was transferred into Pakistan's Lance program.
ANTIAIRCRAFT MISSILES also are available on black markets. Within the last
few years, U.S intelligence officials quoted the following availability and
prices:
*The French-built Mistral can be bought for $60,000-100,000. It has a
maximum effective altitude of roughly 14,000 ft. It can be fired at an
approaching aircraft or from the side.
*The U.S.-built Stinger is available for $50,000-80,000. It also can reach
14,000 ft. Although the batteries needed to aim and fire the weapons are
now thought to be useless, replacing them is not considered impossible.
Stingers also were sold to Pakistan, Angola's Unita units, Chad and
Nicaragua's Contras.
*The British Blowpipe, thought to be in roughly the same price range, was
sold to Afghanistan but it was designed as a low-altitude system with a
maximum effective altitude of about 8,000 ft.
*The SA-7/14s are on the market for $35,000. Maximum altitude ranges up to
12,000 ft., and they are thought to have no flare-rejection capability. The
more advanced SA-16/18s cost $60,000-80,000 and have improved sensing. The
SA-18 has improved target discrimination and an altitude of at least 14,000
ft. A logic unit in the missile moves the aimpoint, at the last moment,
from the tailpipe to the cockpit and center fuselage area.
In an ominous turn of events, triggered by the success of U.S. aircraft in
striking radars and radar-guided missiles, foreign manufacturers are
modifying their heavy SAM systems with electro-optical and infrared sensors
to avoid detection. While infrared missiles have been the most effective
antiaircraft weapons over the last decade, there are improvements being
made to defenses against them. They now involve more than the traditional
dispersal of flares.
Sweden, for example, has developed a covert flare that because of its low
temperature is not visible to the unaided eye. It operates at the same
temperature as the dispensing aircraft so that imaging seeker heads on
missiles have difficulty telling the plume from the aircraft. Moreover,
several countries are using lasers to fool laser-guided weapons and jam IR
seekers. In some cases, it can be powerful enough to overload sensors and
damage detectors or frost optics on the incoming missile.
IN THE U.S., Lockheed Martin and the Air Force Research Laboratoryhave
tested the laser infrared countermeasure flyout experiment (Life). It uses
a multiband laser to identify an approaching weapon by the sensor it
carries. It assesses characteristics of the missile and then returns a
complex synchronized jam code. This response causes the missile to make a
high-g turn away from the target aircraft in order to chase a cluster of
false targets. If it can drive the missile in one direction, the total time
to jam could be as little as 3-4 sec., a necessity when aircraft are at low
altitude ( AW&ST May 21, p. 43).
Both the very long-range, high-altitude Global Hawk and the Air Force's
medium-altitude, 8-12-hr. endurance Predator are expected to be flying in
support of operations in Afghanistan soon.
DEPLOYMENT HAS BEEN slowed by a bureaucratic fight. Pentagon officials
split over whether to deploy the aircraft immediately or wait until
communications upgrades are completed to make its communications and
command-and-control links interoperable with the other services. The Air
Force says that any diversion will slow the deployment, which requires the
full attention of Predator program officials. Even without Pentagon
interference, UAV specialists says it takes about 30 days to be
operational.
How much would the primitive Afghanistan air defenses threaten U.S.
reconnaissance and, later, strike or troop insertion aircraft that would
need to penetrate into the country's interior? Not much, U.S. officials
believe, against aircraft operating at medium and high altitudes. Some
surveys of military force say the Taliban had access to the SA-2 and SA-3,
but such aging systems need maintenance and professional crews and have not
been assessed as a significant threat. The introduction of modern high- or
medium-altitude surface-to-air missiles seems unlikely. The Northern
Alliance recently struck Kabul airport with rocket-firing helicopters and
escaped unscathed.
Russian-made antiaircraft guns range from the 12.7-mm. (roughly
0.50-caliber) NSV heavy machine gun through the 14.5-mm. ZPU in single,
double or four-barrel mountings to the ZU-23 23-mm. cannon in single and
double towed carriages.
China North Industries Corp. has been exporting its versions of the ZPU and
a new Type 85 that is 58% lighter, making them easier to transport by
infantry in rough terrain. Iran and Egypt also make and export versions of
the weapon.
SHOULDER-FIRED antiaircraft missiles that track the infrared signature of
aircraft are probably the major threat in Afghanistan. There are a few
U.S.-supplied Stingers (intelligence estimates are around 100) still in
Afghan hands, but few think they are still effective. More available, and
probably more reliable at this late date, are the Russian-designed SA-7
through SA-18 family. The missiles are also built by Yugoslavia, Bulgaria,
China, Pakistan and others. They are variously know as the Strela 2 (SA-7
Grail) and Strela 3 (SA-14 Gremlin), the latter effective against
approaching targets. More advanced variants are the Igla (SA-18 Grouse),
which is designed to ignore decoys, and Ingla-1 (SA-16 Gimlet), the single
most effective Iraqi antiaircraft weapon used in the 1990-91 Persian Gulf
war.
China builds and sells a shoulder-fired weapon called the HN-5/5A/5B and a
similar, derivative missile built by Pakistan as the Anza (Lance) Mk. 1/2.
Both combine Stinger and Igla technology. There also is an improved version
of the Chinese missile called the QW-1 Vanguard that is now on the market.
Egypt sells the Falcon Eye, an improved SA-7b. All three are in service in
Afghanistan. Russian Igla and U.S. Stinger technology fed China's QW-1
development, which in turn was transferred into Pakistan's Lance program.
ANTIAIRCRAFT MISSILES also are available on black markets. Within the last
few years, U.S intelligence officials quoted the following availability and
prices:
*The French-built Mistral can be bought for $60,000-100,000. It has a
maximum effective altitude of roughly 14,000 ft. It can be fired at an
approaching aircraft or from the side.
*The U.S.-built Stinger is available for $50,000-80,000. It also can reach
14,000 ft. Although the batteries needed to aim and fire the weapons are
now thought to be useless, replacing them is not considered impossible.
Stingers also were sold to Pakistan, Angola's Unita units, Chad and
Nicaragua's Contras.
*The British Blowpipe, thought to be in roughly the same price range, was
sold to Afghanistan but it was designed as a low-altitude system with a
maximum effective altitude of about 8,000 ft.
*The SA-7/14s are on the market for $35,000. Maximum altitude ranges up to
12,000 ft., and they are thought to have no flare-rejection capability. The
more advanced SA-16/18s cost $60,000-80,000 and have improved sensing. The
SA-18 has improved target discrimination and an altitude of at least 14,000
ft. A logic unit in the missile moves the aimpoint, at the last moment,
from the tailpipe to the cockpit and center fuselage area.
In an ominous turn of events, triggered by the success of U.S. aircraft in
striking radars and radar-guided missiles, foreign manufacturers are
modifying their heavy SAM systems with electro-optical and infrared sensors
to avoid detection. While infrared missiles have been the most effective
antiaircraft weapons over the last decade, there are improvements being
made to defenses against them. They now involve more than the traditional
dispersal of flares.
Sweden, for example, has developed a covert flare that because of its low
temperature is not visible to the unaided eye. It operates at the same
temperature as the dispensing aircraft so that imaging seeker heads on
missiles have difficulty telling the plume from the aircraft. Moreover,
several countries are using lasers to fool laser-guided weapons and jam IR
seekers. In some cases, it can be powerful enough to overload sensors and
damage detectors or frost optics on the incoming missile.
IN THE U.S., Lockheed Martin and the Air Force Research Laboratoryhave
tested the laser infrared countermeasure flyout experiment (Life). It uses
a multiband laser to identify an approaching weapon by the sensor it
carries. It assesses characteristics of the missile and then returns a
complex synchronized jam code. This response causes the missile to make a
high-g turn away from the target aircraft in order to chase a cluster of
false targets. If it can drive the missile in one direction, the total time
to jam could be as little as 3-4 sec., a necessity when aircraft are at low
altitude ( AW&ST May 21, p. 43).
================================================================
Kadosh, Kadosh, Kadosh, YHVH, TZEVAOT
FROM THE DESK OF:
*Michael Spitzer* <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>
The Best Way To Destroy Enemies Is To Change Them To Friends
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