Gary North's REALITY CHECK

Number 84                                  October 18, 2001


         70,000 GRADUATES OF BIN LADEN UNIVERSITY

     On October 11, Winston Churchill spoke to the National
Press Club in Washington.  Shirley MacClaine served as his
channel.

     Actually, it was Winston Churchill, the grandson, son
of Randolph Churchill and Pamela Beryl Digby Churchill
Hayward Harriman.  His mother was the lady who, in 1992,
introduced Washington Democrats socially to W. J. Clinton
of Arkansas.  She held one of her famous Party parties for
him.  For this, late in her maritally astounding career,
Clinton appointed her the U.S. Ambassador to France.

     Churchill gave a rousing speech on the war against
terrorism.  Midway in the speech, he got to the topic at
hand: funding.  I find it ominous.

           It is impossible to guess how long it will
     take to apprehend bin Laden and his henchmen and
     to bring them to justice.  That it will be done
     in time, I have no doubt.  Meanwhile, the
     overthrow of the cruel, barbaric Taliban regime
     which harbors him is clearly the top priority.
     This is an alien regime, established only in the
     past five years with funding and arms from the
     Arab countries, by way of Pakistan, which acted
     as godfather to the creation of the Taliban.
     Their rule has been so brutal and so disastrous
     that an estimated one in four Afghans have fled
     as refugees to Iran or Pakistan, creating a
     massive humanitarian crisis in the region.

            Once the Taliban have been overthrown, a
     high priority must be to cut off the funding --
     not only for the terrorists, but also for the
     fundamentalist madrassas, the theological schools
     established in numerous countries around the
     world where the gospel of Islamic purity and
     anti-Western hatred is preached.  Unbelievable
     though it may seem, no country has been more
     responsible for this than Saudi Arabia, the
     West's principal ally in the Middle East.  In
     order to appease and deflect criticism of their
     pro-Western leanings and opulent lifestyle, the
     Saudi ruling family, in an act of consummate
     folly, has poured vast resources into the
     establishment of these schools and religious
     universities in their own countries and overseas.
     They now find that they are riding a tiger of
     extreme fundamentalism, entirely of their own
     creation, which threatens the very foundations of
     their hold on power.  As a result, today almost
     half the young Saudi males coming onto the jobs
     market have only religious qualifications, making
     them not only unemployed, but effectively
     unemployable.  In consequence, barely one in four
     is able to find a job.  The rest make a fertile
     field of disaffection, from which bin Laden is
     able to recruit new generations of suicide
     bombers, hijackers and terrorists.  And it is no
     coincidence that many of last month's hijackers
     were Saudi citizens.

           More horrifying yet, if that were possible,
     if estimates attributed to the CIA are to be
     believed, in recent years some 70,000 militants
     have passed through bin Laden's terrorist
     training camps in Afghanistan, and are currently
     dispersed across no fewer than 55 countries
     around the world, including our own.  New attacks
     are inevitable, and some undoubtedly will
     succeeded before this hydra-headed monster of
     international terrorism is destroyed.

           While it will be difficult for the Saudi
     government to bring its extremist theological
     schools under control and integrate them as they
     must within the state education system, if it
     fails to do so it is inevitable that the Saudi
     ruling family will sooner or later -- and
     probably sooner than later -- forfeit its hold on
     power and be drowned in a tidal wave of
     fundamentalism.

     What is the likelihood that the Saudis will shut down
these schools?  Not high, surely.  The Saudis are already
distancing themselves from the United States.  This article
appeared the day after we began bombing Kabul.

     RIYADH: The US ally Saudi Arabia said on Monday
     that it was unhappy about the bombing of
     Afghanistan, sending the clearest signal yet that
     its relations with Washington are being tested by
     the war on terrorism.

     Interior Minister Prince Naif broke Saudi silence
     on the bombing late on Sunday, telling reporters
     that the kingdom opposed terrorism but did not
     approve of the US response. "We wish the United
     States had been able to flush out the terrorists
     in Afghanistan without resorting to the current
     action ... because this is killing innocent
     people," he said. . . .

     "It's unbelievable the way the feeling here has
     changed from sympathy to anger in such a short
     time," a Western analyst based in Riyadh said.
     "More sensitive and astute decision-making on
     both sides is required to handle a relationship
     which has become extremely difficult to manage.
     Every aspect of it is under pressure." . . .

http://www.jang.com.pk/thenews/oct2001-daily/16-10-2001/main/main14.htm

     Churchill argued that money to the Taliban has come
from Arab states through Pakistan.  I don't know about the
Arab states, although I suspect that this is the case.
With respect to Pakistan, it's becoming ever clearer: big
money came from our new-found ally.

     From day one, Pakistan has backed the Taliban.  The
American press will not touch this story.  Now this aspect
of the war is getting juicy.

     The head of Pakistan's version of the CIA, called the
ISI, recently retired.  It is pretty clear that he was
quietly forced out because of pressure from the United
States.  Here's why it had to be so quiet.  The following
information comes from the INDIA TIMES, which, regarding
Pakistan, is not what I would call an unbiased source.  But
the American press will not follow this lead.  It's a "not
worth pursuing" story.

          [Note: the TIMES does not publish dates
          on its news reports.  This is a very
          peculiar policy.]

     While the Pakistani Inter Services Public
     Relations claimed that former ISI director-
     general Lt-Gen Mahmud Ahmad sought retirement
     after being superseded on Monday, the truth is
     more shocking.

     Top sources confirmed here on Tuesday, that the
     general lost his job because of the "evidence"
     India produced to show his links to one of the
     suicide bombers that wrecked the World Trade
     Centre.  The US authorities sought his removal
     after confirming the fact that $100,000 were
     wired to WTC hijacker Mohammed Atta from Pakistan
     by Ahmad Umar Sheikh at the instance of Gen
     Mahumd.

     Senior government sources have confirmed that
     India contributed significantly to establishing
     the link between the money transfer and the role
     played by the dismissed ISI chief.  While they
     did not provide details, they said that Indian
     inputs, including Sheikh's mobile phone number,
     helped the FBI in tracing and establishing the
     link.

http://www.timesofindia.com/articleshow.asp?art_id=1454238160

     Can this story be true?  Is there evidence?  Not as
much as there was two weeks ago.  According to INDIAREACTS,

     . . . we reported in our Intelligence section on
     Saturday (Intelligence, "Pak GHQ fire could be
     sabotage," 13 October 2001) that the five-hour
     fire that raged through a section of the Pakistan
     army headquarters in Rawalpindi on 10 October
     could have been staged.  The fire entirely
     destroyed cell 320 containing files of Afghan
     operations and dossiers on the Taliban leadership
     since 1995.

     General Musharraf had created a new Afghan
     division after he took over.  But all files on
     the Taliban prior to that were lost in the cell
     320 fire.  Firemen were prevented from dousing it
     from the inside and ordered to see that it did
     not spread to other parts of the building. . . .

     But how is it that the fire raged for five hours
     despite the presence of modern fire-fighting
     equipment from Belgium that was ordered not to be
     used?  Who ordered that?  Why? . . .

     Again, this is an Indian publication.  But the
following information is bothersome.

     Second, we are now told that Musharraf had
     stalled a US-Pakistani army plan to grab Osama
     Bin Laden in October 1999.  The plan approved by
     deposed Pakistan prime minister Nawaz Sharief and
     former US president Bill Clinton entailed
     training Pakistani commandos to make the grab.
     The commandos were trained but Musharraf deposed
     Sharief in a coup and cancelled the plan.

            http://www.indiareacts.com/home.asp

     What we have today is an anti-Taliban alliance that is
not what I would call rock-solid.


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SHORT MEMORIES

     In issue Number 81, I raised the question of how long
the attack on Afghanistan has been in works.  Based on a
June 26 story in INDIAREACTS, we know that the formation
anti-Taliban alliance goes back to early summer or late
spring.  Subsequently, I came across a March 15 story in
JANE'S that indicates that India joined the anti-Taliban
alliance early last March.  So, plans were being readied no
later than late last winter.

     As far as the American public was concerned before
September 11, nothing important was happening in
Afghanistan.  Bin Laden was not front-page news.  The
destruction of our embassies in 1998 was forgotten.  The
American public usually forgets fast.

     If Churchill is correct, bin Laden has 70,000 recruits
operating in some capacity around the world.  We should
assume that his network informed him that something big was
being planned.  If he was the mastermind behind the
hijacking, as appears likely, he must have intelligence
sources that could surf the Web in search of stories on the
Administration's plans.  Google.com works for terrorists,
too.

     Americans must be prodded, and prodded hard, to get
their attention.  The American public has never cared about
terrorism, just so long as it's off-shore.  Two American
embassies blown up?  Oh, well.  These things happen.  The
U.S.S. Cole attacked?  Oh, well.  These things happen.

     Until September 11, the story of bin Laden was "not
worth pursuing."  Consider the testimony before the House
Committee on International Relations.  Hearings took place
on July 12, 2000, 14 months before the attack.  These
hearings dealt with "Global Terrorism And South Asia."
Nobody in the American media paid any attention.

     Congressman Dana Rohrabacher, a Republican, cross-
examined several witnesses from the State Department.
According to the editor of the Website on which this cross-
examination is now posted, Rep. Rohrabacher exposed the
following information:

     The U.S. deliberately sent 'humanitarian aid'
     only to Taliban-controlled areas;

     The U.S. State Department refused to act on
     information concerning the location of Osama bin
     Laden's headquarters in Afghanistan.

     U.S. officials tricked the Anti-Taliban
     opposition into disarming, though the officials
     knew Pakistan was airlifting weapons to the
     Taliban.  This allowed the Taliban to wipe out
     most of the opposition forces.

     Most of the following exchange is posted on the
Emperor's Clothes, one of the gutsiest sites on the Web.
Jared Israel is blowing holes daily in the government's
stories on Afghanistan.  This document is especially
infuriating.  It is one more example that our senior
diplomatic officials have not had a clue as to what to do
about bin Laden for years.  But bin Laden surely knew what
to do about them: producing 70,000 graduates.

     Because of bipartisanship in the war effort, all of
this information has gone down the official memory hole.
Rohrabacher has closed ranks with the Democrats in
Congress.  This information will not be dredged up again by
the Republicans for many years, if ever.  Click through.
Read the whole preposterous exchange.  Prepare to be
disenchanted with the State Department.  Again.  (That the
State Department really is located in a part of the
District of Columbia called Foggy Bottom seems too
perfect.)  Here are some extracts from Rohrabacher's
statement.

     After a year of requesting to see State
     Department documents on Afghan policy -- and I
     would remind the committee that I have -- I have
     stated that I believe that there is a covert
     policy by this administration, a shameful covert
     policy of supporting the Taliban -- the State
     Department, after many, many months -- actually,
     years -- of prodding, finally began giving me
     documents, Mr. Chairman.  And I have, in the
     assessment of those documents, I have found
     nothing to persuade me that I was wrong in my
     criticism.  And I might add, however, that there
     has been no documents provided to me, even after
     all of these years of requesting it, there have
     been no documents concerning the time period of
     the formation of the Taliban.  And I would,
     again, I would hope that the State Department
     gets the message that I expect to see all those
     documents.  And the documents that I have read,
     Mr. Chairman, indicate that the State Department,
     time and again, has had as its position that they
     have no quarrel, or that it would give them no
     heartburn, to have the Taliban in power.  This,
     during the time period when the Taliban was
     struggling to take over Afghanistan.

     And although the administration has denied
     supporting the Taliban, it is clear that they
     discouraged all of the anti-Taliban supporters
     from supporting the efforts in Afghanistan to
     defeat the Taliban.  Even so much as when the
     Taliban was ripe for being defeated on the ground
     in Afghanistan, Bill Richardson and Rick
     Inderfurth, high-ranking members of this
     administration, personally visited the region in
     order to discourage the Taliban's opposition from
     attacking the Taliban when they were vulnerable,
     and then going to neighboring countries to cut
     off any type of military assistance to the
     [opponents of the] Taliban.  This, at a time when
     Pakistan was heavily resupplying and rearming the
     Taliban.

     What did this lead to? It led to the defeat of
     all of the Taliban's major enemies except for
     one, Commander Massoud, in the north, and left
     the Taliban the supreme power in Afghanistan. . .

     One last note.  Many people here understand that
     I have been in Afghanistan on numerous occasions
     and have close ties to people there.  And let me
     just say that some of my sources of information
     informed me of where bin Laden was, they told me
     they knew and could tell people where bin Laden
     could be located.  And it took me three times
     before this administration responded to someone
     who obviously has personal contacts in
     Afghanistan, to even investigate that there might
     be someone who could give them the information.
     And when my contact was actually contacted, they
     said that the people who contacted them were
     half-hearted, did not follow through, did not
     appear to be all that interested, appeared to be
     forced to be talking to him.


BOMBS AWAY

     We have heard relatively little about how the bombing
raids are going, militarily speaking.  We have heard that
bombs fell on Kabul initially.  Then there were attacks on
other cities.  Of what military significance are bombed-out
cities?  The old line about Afghanistan's already being
bombed into the stone age is accurate.  Bin Laden is not in
a penthouse in the Kabul Hilton.  There is no Kabul Hilton.

     We have also heard about the amazing accuracy of U.S.
satellite surveillance.  I have no doubt that it is
extremely accurate.  On October 11, USA TODAY ran a story
on this technology.

     U.S military and spy satellites are searching
     aggressively for signs of Osama bin Laden and are
     providing military planners with near-real-time
     high-resolution photographs and data about
     specific regions of Afghanistan, officials say.
     Although many Americans anticipated swift
     military retaliation, little is likely to happen
     until satellites scan hundreds of thousands of
     square miles of Afghanistan's rugged terrain.
     "We have to have a feel for the terrain and for
     the weather, which we provide with our
     satellites, and we have to have a feeling for the
     weapons that potentially could be employed," says
     Rear Adm. James McArthur, director of operations
     for U.S. Space Command at Peterson Air Force Base
     in Colorado Springs.  McArthur says the space
     technology in use today over Afghanistan is a
     dramatic improvement from that used in the
     Persian Gulf War.  New satellites can process
     information at much faster speeds and allow
     ground forces to have up-to-the-moment
     information.

http://www.usatoday.com/life/cyber/tech/2001/10/5/attack-space-search.htm#more

     Very impressive!  But then this question occurs to me:
If the Bush Administration has been planning this attack to
take out bin Laden since last March or even earlier, isn't
it likely that the spy satellites' work has been completed
by now?  And if it hasn't, how long are we talking about
before it's ready?

     Missiles now are guided by satellite rather than
     lasers, which makes them much more accurate than
     the laser-guided strikes in Kosovo just 2 years
     ago.

     It's incredible how close-up these satellite images
can get.  The most impressive photo I have seen is this
one.  It's so lifelike that it's eerie.  See for yourself.
(It may take some time to download, bit it's worth it.)

http://www.wired.com/news/gallery/0,2072,47450-1964,00.html

     Well, what do you think?  Have you ever seen anything
like it?

     OK, OK.  So it's not a satellite photo.  So, sue me.
But the photo is real.  It started circulating on the Web
last week.  It's from an anti-American Islamic rally in
Bangladesh.  The protestors were carrying a poster.  The
Reuters photo service enlarged part of that poster.  You
have seen the result.  An editor at the Reuters photo desk
in Washington said the photo not doctored.  There are some
strange Islamic poster-makers in Bangladesh, I guess.


YEARS, IF NECESSARY

     The President has said that it may take two weeks, two
months, or two years.  We are going to get bib Laden.

     This reveals tenacity on the President's part.  But
this question is political.  If bin Laden eludes capture,
then he will take on an aura on invincibility in the Middle
East.  The question today isn't what bin Laden can do to
us.  The question is what his imitators will try to do.

     The longer the U.S. drops bombs Afghan cities, with or
without the presence of the Taliban, the more likely the
existing rulers in Islamic nations will have to deal with a
growing sense of outrage from their own people, who may be
opposed to terrorism, but who are not ready to accept the
idea of a war launched on non-military targets by the
United States.

     There may be a logical plan behind strategic bombing,
but everything we have learned since 1940 tells us that
civilian populations resist, and, if anything, become more
supportive of their government, when they are bombed.  This
was true during the London blitz, the Berlin air raids, and
Japan, until we dropped two atomic bombs.  Getting bombs
dropped on them makes civilians more angry at the enemy.

     If our satellites are as accurate as everything we
have heard, then we ought to be able to pinpoint where bin
Laden is.  If we can't pinpoint him, then it's counter-
productive to bomb what is left of those cities.  We are
seeing no TV coverage, for obvious reasons: no TV crews.


CONCLUSION

     We are now engaged in a war that we cannot win -- not
against bin Laden, but against the Islamic terrorist
network.  This is the latest in a series on no-win wars:
from Korea, through Vietnam, to Iraq, and Somalia.  Now we
confront international terrorism.  At best, we can delay
its escalation.  Terrorism is too decentralized to be
eliminated.  We can't "cut off its head and then kill it,"
as we were supposedly going to do to Saddam Hussein, but
didn't.

     In the meantime, Arab governments of the Middle East
are facing rumblings from below: bad economies, unemployed
young men, and a growing sense that the West is vulnerable
to terrorism.  Arab rulers will back our interests only for
as long as it's in their interest.  This is a revolutionary
situation.

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