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Afghanistan Facing Ethnic Division?
The "Balkanisation" of Afghanistan is now a distinct possibility, as
Afghan opposition commanders take charge of their old fiefdoms.
By Thomas Withington in London (RCA No. 84, 14-Nov-01)
The United Islamic Front for the Salvation of Afghanistan, UIFSA,
also known as the Northern Alliance or United Front, has trebled its
share of the country in just a week.
The group's speed and agility has stunned Washington, London
and much of the world. Until last Friday, UIFSA controlled just ten
per cent of Afghanistan, small slivers of territory in the north-east of
the country.
However, as welcoming statements from Bush and Blair greet the
Northern Alliance advance into Kabul, a new set of problems may
well emerge.
Until Tuesday, the UIFSA had liberated areas, which contained the
ethnic groups from which their force were drawn.
For example, veteran Afghan and UIFSA commander, General
Abdul Rashid Dostum, is an Uzbek. On Saturday night, he led an
army of Uzbeks into a largely Uzbek city of Mazir-e-Sharif. Dostum
was the quasi president of Samangan, the predominantly Uzbek
province, of which Mazir-e-Sharif is the capital, before its
occupation by the Taleban. His portrait was displayed prominently
around the city.
As events unfolded on Sunday, Dostum's forces moved westwards,
down the road to Shibergan and eventually to the western Shia city
of Herat, where they were joined by forces loyal to Ismail Khan.
Khan is a Hazara, he leads a force of ethnic Hazara Shias and
enjoys widespread support in Afghanistan's western Shia regions.
It is little surprise that Khan's troops joined with Dostum's in the
liberation of Herat.
However, the liberation of Kabul on Tuesday poses new problems.
The UIFSA is noticeably deficient of Pashtuns, which make up the
core of the Taleban's Afghan troops. For now, Pashtun Kabul is
welcoming the predominantly Tajik, Uzbek and Hazara UIFSA as
liberators. The city has finally thrown off its oppressive yoke of
religious police, edicts, and gender exclusion. Speculation
inevitably now focuses on the city's future. How long can the
UIFSA hope to maintain order in a city in which it is an ethnic
minority? Will Kabulis simply sit back and accept governance from
the UIFSA? This problem could be worsened by Kabul's memories
of the horrendous human rights abuses, devastation and
lawlessness that characterised the UIFSA's previous administration
of the city.
A possible crisis in legitimacy for the UIFSA could be intensified if
they decide to occupy areas around Jalalabad and Kandahar,
which are almost totally Pashtun and which are also the Taleban's
heartland. While reports Tuesday evening from the UIFSA's interior
minister Yonus Qanuni stress that there is an anti-Taleban uprising
in Jalalabad, this does not guarantee that the city, halfway between
Kabul and the eastern Afghan-Pakistan border, will welcome the
UIFSA with open arms.
But another greater danger is the development of splits within the
UIFSA itself - which could lead to the ethnic fragmentation of
Afghanistan. If a post-Taleban settlement fails to work and the
UIFSA divide, it could effectively leave some commanders in
charge of the same areas they controlled before the Taleban
appeared. The UIFSA's record on cohesion and unity leaves much
to be desired. Their fragmentation is a very real possibility. Should
the Taleban and dissident UIFSA elements retain their respective
heartlands, a "Balkanisation" of Afghanistan may occur.
By allowing the UIFSA command of the ground, Washington and
London have allowed them a carte-blanche to advance at their
convenience. A ground force of British and American troops could
prevent this, however the leaders of both countries have yet to work
out full details of deployment, and as time goes on, UIFSA's
consolidation of the country can only continue.
This could make any insertion of a multi-national force difficult, as
UIFSA are reluctant to allow more foreign troops into the country,
and the US is unlikely to want to maintain a forward presence in
Afghanistan for too long.
Would victorious UIFSA commanders be happy to relinquish
control of their areas if required to by any internationally negotiated,
post-Taleban political arrangement? Would they be willing to
rescind control of their areas to elements from different ethnic
groups, or even more moderate elements within the Taleban?
Where would the loyalty of their troops lie in such an event? Even if
a commander was to agree, would his soldiers follow suit?
Secondly, the UIFSA entered Kabul despite pleas from
Washington, London and Pakistan to hold back and wait for a
political framework, possibly involving the former king, Zahir Shah,
to be in place. UIFSA commanders speaking on Tuesday morning
mentioned that they had specific orders forbidding them from
entering the city, but by nightfall, Kabul was in UIFSA hands.
Given that UIFSA has made more gains in the past five days than
in the past five years, is it realistic for Washington and London to
expect this force of battle-hardened troops to refrain from
sustaining their advance? Also, the UIFSA's failure to heed
Washington and London's requests may result in the allies being
unable to exercise substantial leverage on the UIFSA if their
territorial gains continue. The Balkanisation of Afghanistan is now a
distinct possibility, as UIFSA commanders take charge of their old
fiefdoms. This process could be hastened if the coalition undergoes
any fragmentation.
Thomas Withington is an independent defence analyst. His
interests include South Asian security, air power, and Cold War
history. He is also a Ressearch Associate at the Centre for
Defence Studies, King's College, London.
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