-Caveat Lector- http://www.smh.com.au/news/0111/19/world/world4.html
WJPBR Email News List [EMAIL PROTECTED] Peace at any cost is a Prelude to War! Death or Mogadishu for public enemy No. 1 By Elizabeth Neuffer in Washington and agencies Die as a martyr, or live a life on the run: as United States forces scour battle-scarred Afghanistan for Osama bin Laden, his options narrow by the day. Once, the Saudi exile and millionaire might have sought sanctuary from any number of rogue regimes. Today, there are few corners of the world, analysts say, willing to offer safe haven to the man whose actions have touched off the global war on terrorism. The death of Mohammed Atef, bin Laden's top military commander, and the routing of al-Qaeda's top command, have also struck a near-crippling blow to the terrorist network's ability to initiate new co-ordinated attacks, authorities and counter-terrorism experts said. The Bush Administration official likened al-Qaeda to a tightly run corporation, with myriad global outposts, many of them tolerated by sympathetic regimes. With much of that infrastructure gone and leaders presumed dead or in hiding, the outposts in Europe, Asia, Africa and North and South America have essentially been cast adrift and, along with it, bin Laden himself. Key to what bin Laden does will be his calculation, probably made many months ago, of how he can best advance his cause: Alive? Or dead? "We have to be careful about assuming he wants to run and hide," said Anthony Cordesman, a former State Department official who is at the Centre for Strategic and International Studies in Washington. "I think this is someone who sees martyrdom as the goal." Some analysts say that bin Laden's death would make him a martyr in the eyes of many Muslims as the Islamic follower who died defying the West. Others disagree. While bin Laden's anti-Americanism has caught on in the Islamic world, they say, his radical interpretation of the religion has not. "If he dies fighting, there will be a lot of demonstrations, mourning and posters - but that will be it," said Judith Kipper, a Middle East expert at the Council on Foreign Relations in Washington. How much of bin Laden's professed desire to die for his cause is just bluff and bluster is impossible to determine, analysts say. They do not rule out the possibility that bin Laden may had a plan to flee and find sanctuary outside Afghanistan. "He's a very crafty man and, whatever he does, he is bound to have thought it through beforehand," said Stanley Bedlington, a former CIA counterterrorism analyst. Specialists generally agree that Somalia, Iraq, Yemen, the Xinjiang province of China and the disputed land of Kashmir, fought over by India and Pakistan, and even Pakistan itself, could all possibly grant temporary sanctuary to bin Laden. But this assumes that he is able to escape from Afghanistan, which looks increasingly difficult. Wherever bin Laden chooses to flee, analysts say his days of finding a sympathetic government to shelter him, like Afghanistan's Taliban, are over. Nations need only look at the US-led campaign in Afghanistan to realise that Washington will take firm action against any regime that harbours terrorists, they say. "Wherever he goes," said Julie Sirrs, formerly with the Defence Intelligence Agency, "he has to live a life on the run." *COPYRIGHT NOTICE** In accordance with Title 17 U. S. C. Section 107, any copyrighted work in this message is distributed under fair use without profit or payment to those who have expressed a prior interest in receiving the included information for nonprofit research and educational purposes only.[Ref. http://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/17/107.shtml ] Want to be on our lists? Write at [EMAIL PROTECTED] for a menu of our lists! 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