-Caveat Lector-

The Cipro effect is wearing off. The gloss that temporarily attached to Bayer
thanks to its anti-anthrax drug has been stripped away by its awful third-
quarter figures - far short of even bottom-end forecasts. Since the Baycol
withdrawal, things have gone from bad to worse.

The pharmaceuticals decline was foreseen, but the lack of recovery in
Kogenate is worrying. Bayer now puts the costs of the Baycol and Kogenate
problems at E1.4bn this year. Adalat, its number two drug, and Avelox, its
successor to Cipro, were disappointing. The real nasties, however, were in
polymers and chemicals, where operating margins of 3.1 per cent and 2.5
per cent respectively hit historical lows. With 60 per cent of sales going to the
car industry, polymers look unlikely to bounce back quickly.

Bayer admits its conglomerate structure failed to cushion it from the Baycol
withdrawal and deepening economic downturn. So why cling to it? Bayer
looks as though it no longer has the management resources to run such a
diverse business. Its balance sheet, after buying Aventis CropScience, will
also be stretched.

Selling pharmaceuticals, however, could secure its future as a significant
industry influence and raise $20bn or more to bolster its remaining
businesses. While Bayer rules out that option, its shares look set to bump
along at their 30 per cent-plus discount to sum-of-the-parts valuations. With
trading deteriorating, they are best avoided.

"Listen: We are here on Earth to fart around.
Don't let anybody tell you any different!"
 Kurt Vonnegut  "Timequake"

Steve Wingate, Webmaster
ANOMALOUS IMAGES AND UFO FILES
http://www.anomalous-images.com

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