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Peace at any cost is a Prelude to War!
CONSOLIDATION IN KUNDUZ
In Kunduz, fierce firefights broke out when the main contingent of
opposition forces pushed into the last northern stronghold of the Taliban at
daybreak Monday.
Despite an alliance claim late Sunday to have captured the city,
Taliban forces were waiting, ambushing the arriving soldiers with rifle fire
and rocket-propelled grenades.
But the Taliban came out the worst in the exchange.
Wounded Taliban fighters lay dying in the streets, ringed by staring
crowds. Alliance security official Rahman Ali estimated 100 Taliban dead in
the street fighting early Monday, with perhaps 10 dead on the Northern
Alliance side.
Afghan Taliban and a hard core of allied foreign Islamic militia had
held off northern-based opposition alliance forces at Kunduz for two weeks.
An estimated 3,000 Arabs, Pakistanis, Chechens and other foreigners resisted
surrender of the city, fearing the alliance would single them out for killing.
Alim Razim, an adviser to alliance commander Rashid Dostum, said 5,000
Taliban surrendered as alliance forces moved into the city. Most were locals
and were released, but the alliance imprisoned 750 men they suspected of
being foreigners, he said in Mazar-e-Sharif, Dostum’s base to the west of
Kunduz.
These prisoners — who were being held under the terms of a surrender
deal to determine their ties to al-Qaida — were among those who staged an
uprising Sunday at the fortress-prison outside Mazar-e-Sharif.
The prisoners seized weapons and turned on their guards, triggering
fighting so fierce that U.S. air strikes were called in to quell it.
Hundreds killed in prison riots
The alliance said most of the prisoners were killed, but a hard core of
holdouts was still battling alliance troops on Monday. A fighter named
Massood who witnessed Monday’s fighting said several dozen prisoners were
firing rockets at Northern Alliance troops.
Five members of the U.S. special forces were hit by friendly fire,
U.S. officials said. The troops, who had called in an air strike on a Taliban
position, were injured by shrapnel when the precision-guided bomb went
astray. The injuries were “serious” but not life-threatening, officials told
NBC News, and the five were evacuated to Uzbekistan, then Germany.
Britain also said a “very small number” of British troops had been
injured in operations with U.S. forces in Afghanistan. Defense Secretary
Geoff Hoon gave no details on the operations or the severity of the injuries.
Despite rumors that Osama bin Laden may have escaped to neighboring Pakistan,
U.S. officials believe that he remains somewhere in Afghanistan.
Jalalabad
This city in eastern Afghanistan housed several al Qaida training bases and
supply dumps before the American bombing destroyed the organization’s
infrastructure here. It is believed that bin Laden’s last confirmed sighting
by Pakistani reporter Hamid Mir took place somewhere within the vicinity of
Jalalabad. Rumors from Pakistani and Taliban sources place bin Laden
hunkering down in caves near Tora Bora, a Taliban base in the Ningarhar
province.
Khost
An American geologist who had done extensive work in Afghanistan identified
the geologic formations in the background of bin Laden's first post-Sept. 11
video as those found in this region. Al Qaida did have a base here, but it's
unlikely that bin Laden would remain in this area for two straight months.
Uruzgan
The collapse of the Taliban in the north threatened its stability, but the
mountainous homeland of Mullah Mohammed Omar offers excellent cover. Special
forces are patrolling escape routes.
Maruf
The Northern Alliance claimed earlier this week that bin Laden was hiding in
the mountains at Maruf, an area 100km east of Kandahar.
Kandahar
The city of Kandahar, the Taliban’s base of operations, promises refuge among
a supposedly loyal populace. But with the city under siege by the Northern
Alliance and rumors of a split between bin Laden and Taliban leader Mullah
Omar, refuge in the city may be unlikely. There are reports in the press --
not confirmed by the United States -- bin Laden may be hiding somewhere
within a 30-square-mile area southeast of Kandahar
American forces are employing both high technology and old fashioned human
intelligence in pursuing bin Laden.
Heat emission
As the weather drops, heat emission sensors on aircraft such as the MH-53
Pave Low helicopters, the AC-130 gunship and the Global Hawk unmanned drone
will be able to detect body heat or heat rising from cave entrances and
ventilation shafts.
Human intelligence
Former Soviet military members who fought the mujahedeen in the past have
helped forces identify major cave networks that could be used by bin Laden.
But the main source of information may be Afghans enticed by the $25 million
bounty placed on bin Laden’s head.
Night movement
Special operations forces are equipped with night vision gear and laser
range-finders capable of finding targets several miles away day or night
through a variety of sensors, including infrared.
Radio and phone transmissions
According to intelligence sources, bin Laden stopped using cell phones and
other equipment susceptible to detection several years ago. Nevertheless,
satellites as well as modified 707’s and lighter aircraft equipped with
electronic surveillance equipment are listening in for any transmissions.
Satellites
Spy satellites today are producing photographs of Afghanistan with a
resolution capable of showing objects a few inches across. Observations from
high-flying U-2 planes supplement satellite coverage. At lower altitudes,
unmanned Predators and Global Hawks linger over suspect areas for hours at a
time providing high-resolution video, infrared, and radar imagery in
real-time via satellite.
In the early 1990s, when bin Laden first earned his reputation as an Islamist
outlaw, there were plenty of places for him to hide, prosper and plan his
conquests. Today, most of those countries have shut their doors. No viable
nation is going to afford him asylum publicly. That leaves only a few options
--rogue regimes and lawless lands. Click on the map above for details on bin
Laden's possible hideouts.
Sudan
The African state was bin Laden's home base from 1992 to 1996, when the power
behind the throne was the radical Islamist ideologue Hassan Turabi. But the
government started worrying about its international isolation. As Turabi's
influence waned, terrorists who'd found asylum in Khartoum found themselves
handed over for trial. The most notable example: Carlos the Jackal, shipped
unceremoniously to France in 1994. Bin Laden may have suspected he was
next--and he was right. Sudan is unlikely stop for bin Laden in any case, but
Turabi himself is now in jail.
Somalia
Some members of the radical Islamist group Al-Ittihad or similar
organizations might be persuaded to shelter bin Laden. He is supposed to have
helped the warlords develop tactics for attacking the Americans in Somalia in
1993 (with Mohammed Atef playing the operational role). But it's unlikely
that any Somali group could protect bin Laden from a concerted American
attack at this point.
Yemen
Bin Laden's family hails from the Hadramhaut in what used to be called South
Yemen before the country was unified under President Ali Abdullah Saleh. Bin
Laden's contacts there are extensive, as the investigation of the Cole
bombing revealed. One of the key hijackers in the plane that hit the Pentagon
on Sept. 11 was Khalid al-Mehdar, a Saudi citizen with tribal connections to
Yemen and links to the figures in the Cole attack. President Saleh has tried
to finesse some of the complications created by local tribesman working with
bin Laden, but he is not about to offer residence to bin Laden or top members
of al Qaida.
Iraq
As Newsweek first reported in January 1999, intelligence officials are
concerned about an unholy alliance between Saddam Hussein and bin Laden. They
have common enemies and common objectives. There were some reports in 1998
that bin Laden was discussing asylum in Iraq with Baghdad's then-ambassador
to Turkey. The most-wanted fugitive in the 1993 attack on the World Trade
Center, Abdul Rahman Yasin, has been living in Baghdad since he fled the
United States. And suicide hijacker Mohamed Atta met with an Iraqi
intelligence officer in Prague last April. But it's doubtful that even Saddam
would be so foolhardy as to let bin Laden take up residence in Iraq. At the
moment, there is virtually no international support for a new war against
Baghdad. If bin Laden were there, however, those attitudes could change.
Saudi Arabia
He could try to seek shelter with his family or with tribes near the Yemeni
border - but the House of Saud is now his bitter enemy.
Iran
Hard-liners might be tempted, but reformers have probably gone too far to let
bin Laden in the country.
Pakistan
A possible transit point, especially if he can get to Kashmir.
NBC’s Jim Miklaszewski and Norah O’Donnell, MSNBC.com’s Preston
Mendenhall; The Associated Press and Reuters contributed to this report.
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