-Caveat Lector- Kris Millegan wrote: >
Kris and all, A lot of stuff about Russia is coming out based on Margolis' story. Particularly this... > In a dazzling coup, Russian leader Vladimir Putin > stole a march on the Bush Administration, which > was so busy trying to tear apart Afghanistan to > find bin Laden it failed to notice the Russians > were taking over half the country. > > The wily Russians achieved this victory through > their proxy Afghan force, the Northern Alliance. > Moscow, which has sustained the Alliance since > 1990, re-armed it after 11 Sept with new tanks, > armored vehicles, artillery, helicopters, and > trucks. The Alliance's two military leaders, Gen > Rashid Dostam and Gen Muhammed Fahim, were > stalwarts of the old communist regime with close > links to KGB. > Frankly, I have never been impressed with Margolis' judgment. He was often wrong about the War on Yugoslavia. The paragraphs above seem to be just his speculation. I think he's wrong. We'll soon find out. My guess is that the country will be divided. The Americans will be happy with a pipeline going south/east to Pakistan and to the Arabian Sea. The Russians will get North/West access. We'll soon know. Joshua2 > -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- > > Subject: The Revival of Russian Regional Hegemony > Date: Thu, 6 Dec 2001 10:30:00 -0500 > From: Gary North & Bill Bonner <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> > Reply-To: [EMAIL PROTECTED] > To: RA Millegan <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> > > Gary North's REALITY CHECK > > Issue 97 December 6, 2001 > > This is a follow-up report on the continuing > threat of new viruses and worms. > > A new worm was discovered earlier this week. > This one is more destructive than BadTrans. It > destroys anti-virus software and firewalls. It's > well-named: Goner. Its full ID is > W32.Goner.A@mm. > > It uses the same distribution technique that > BadTrans does: an e-mail attachment that sends > itself to everyone in your list if you open it. > If you receive an e-mail that says "Hi," and then > goes on to tell you that the sender has included > a file for you to open, delete it. The > attachment is named GONE.SCR. For more > information on this worm, visit > > http://www.pandasoftware.com > > It is analyzed on the home page, upper left-hand > corner. > > The good news is that Panda Software has > already updated its PQremove freeware program to > kill Goner. You have to download the new > version, and then open and activate it. I did > this today. It ran a quick check on my hard > drive. So far, I have not been hit. > > Once Goner is gone from your hard disk, > you're ready for the next test of your system. > To test how secure your computer is from hackers, > use Steve Gibson's free service, Shields Up! > > https://grc.com/x/ne.dll?bh0bkyd2 > > If you find that your system is at risk, > here is a good way to protect your system. > Install Zone Alarm. It's free. > > http://www.zonelabs.com/products/za/pestpatrol.html > > You can buy Zone Alarm Pro, which updates > your system as new threats appear. But the > freeware version will increase your safety by > orders of magnitude. > > THE REVIVAL OF RUSSIAN REGIONAL HEGEMONY > > We remember the fall of the Soviet Union a decade ago. > I am one of those who believe that it really did fall. > Communism is dead as an ideology in Russia. But this does > not change the reality of Russian expansionism, nor does it > change the fact of the desire of Russian leaders to re- > establish Russia as a superpower. Only the ideology has > changed. It is no longer messianic. Marxism is dead, but > the competition for power is still alive. > > Russia has been striving for regional influence in the > Indian subcontinent for two centuries. This has been > called the Great Game. The competition between Russia and > the Anglo-American West in this region has never ended. If > you have ever read Kipling's book, KIM, or seen the movie > with Errol Flynn, you know how long this competition has > been in operation. > > In the last two months, Russia has made greater gains > in the region than it did during the entire the twentieth > century. The United States has opened the door the Russia > for regional hegemony. > > Pakistan has now been sacrificed by American foreign > policy. Pakistan was closely tied to the Taliban, which it > funded in the 1980's with CIA money. For the last five > years, the U.S. also made deals -- or attempted to -- with > the Taliban. Now we have handed over control of the cities > to the Northern Alliance, which is more closely connected > to Russia. Pakistan and the United Front have been hostile > from the beginning. > > THE OIL CARD > > Russia's client Muslim states in the Caspian Sea > region are sitting on top of large oil reserves. This is > common knowledge now. The implications for the West are > enormous. Oil will flow into China and India when the > pipeline is completed. Money will flow into Caspian Sea > states. It will also flow to the nation and company that > control the pipeline. This will undermine the oil-based > economies of the Middle East. This will also put domestic > political pressure on the governments of the Middle Eastern > oil states. The public's dreams of wealth will be cut back > -- a classic condition for creating a revolution. > > Downward pressure on oil has begun. This is > recession-driven, but also the result of Russian oil > output. Russia is making money, but it is also undermining > the Middle Eastern Islamic kingdoms, which are perceived -- > correctly -- as under America's domination. > > Canadian columnist Eric Margolis, who has spent time > in Afghanistan, has written a perceptive analysis of the > return of the Russian bear in the region. On November 25, > he wrote: > > When Pakistan ditched its ally, Taliban, in > September, and sided with the US, Islamabad and > Washington fully expected to implant a > pro-American regime in Kabul and open the way for > the Pak-American pipeline. But this was not to > be. > > In a dazzling coup, Russian leader Vladimir Putin > stole a march on the Bush Administration, which > was so busy trying to tear apart Afghanistan to > find bin Laden it failed to notice the Russians > were taking over half the country. > > The wily Russians achieved this victory through > their proxy Afghan force, the Northern Alliance. > Moscow, which has sustained the Alliance since > 1990, re-armed it after 11 Sept with new tanks, > armored vehicles, artillery, helicopters, and > trucks. The Alliance's two military leaders, Gen > Rashid Dostam and Gen Muhammed Fahim, were > stalwarts of the old communist regime with close > links to KGB. > > Putin put Chief of the Russian General Staff, > Col. Gen. Viktor Kvashnin, and the deputy > director of KGB, in charge of the Alliance. > During the Balkan fighting in 1999, the > hard-charging Kvashnin outfoxed the US by seizing > Prishtinas airfield, thus assuring a permanent > Russian role in Kosovo. > > Now, he's done it again. To the fury of > Washington and Islamabad, in a coup de main, > Kvashnin rushed the Northern Alliance into Kabul, > in direct contravention of Bushs dictates. The > Alliance is now Afghanistan's dominant force, > and, heedless of multi-party political talks in > Germany this week, styles itself the new `lawful > government, a claim fully backed by Moscow. > > The Russians have regained influence over > Afghanistan, revenged their defeat by the US in > the 1980s war, and neatly checkmated the Bush > Administration which, for all its high-tech > military power, understood little about > Afghanistan. > > America's ouster of the Taliban regime meant > Pakistan lost its former influence over > Afghanistan and is now cut off from Central > Asia's resources. So long as the Alliance holds > power, the US is equally denied access to the > much coveted Caspian Basin. Russia has regained > control of the best potential pipeline routes. > The `new Silk Road will become a Russian energy > super-highway. > > By charging like an enraged bull into the South > Asian china shop, the US handed a stunning > geopolitical victory to the Russians and severely > damaged its own great power ambitions. Moscow is > now free to continue plans to dominate South and > Central Asia in concert with its strategic > allies, India and Iran. > > The Bush Administration does not appear to > understand its enormous blunder, and keeps > insisting, `but the Russians are now our friends. > The president should try to understand that where > oil is concerned, there are no friends, only > competitors and enemies. > > http://www.foreigncorrespondent.com/archive/for_oil.html > > * * * * * * * * * * * ADVERTISEMENT * * * * * * * * * * * > > YOURS FREE: 10-for-10 "Wealth Recovery" Portfolio - Beat > The Market by 210% > > Since 1937 we have pioneered a system that has made > ordinary investors rich. 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Seemingly minimal shortages or gluts result in > dramatic price swings. > > Russia has recently expanded production by almost a > quarter million barrels per day. It did this through its > Baltic Sea port. The price of oil has fallen, taking Enron > and $45 billion in bad debt with it. One Kuwaiti official > has predicted $10 oil if OPEC is undercut by non-OPEC > producers. Russia has been undermining the cartel's price. > But yesterday, Russia announced that it will cooperate with > OPEC. Cartels are difficult to control. There is always a > temptation for members to cheat. > > The benefit of lower energy prices is exactly what the > world economy needs in a recession year. Europe and Japan > are either in recession or headed there. If Russia sticks > with its promise to OPEC, and the price of oil rises, this > will accelerate the recession, especially in Japan. > > Jeffrey Nyquist watches Russian developments closely. > He is convinced that Russia remains a geopolitical and > military threat to the United States. He recently wrote: > > As Russia increases its market share at Saudi > expense, the spoiled Arabian princes face > political bankruptcy along with intensified > extortion from terrorist organizations. According > to Seymour Hersh's sensational Oct. 22 New Yorker > article, the Saudi's have not only supported > terrorists with money, but their weak standing > with the local Moslem clergy forces them into > what Hersh calls a "double deal," in which the > princes support the West and the terrorists > simultaneously. > > There is little doubt that Russia knows what > Seymour Hersh knows. And it appears the Kremlin > has been gearing up to exploit the inevitable. > If Saudi oil production was paralyzed by terror > attacks, Russia would become the world's largest > oil exporter. Russia would then have the West > over a barrel -- quite literally. . . . > > Some reports say the Saudi monarchy on which the > West has relied for cheap energy is crumbling. A > stunning Nov. 20 article in the Guardian written > by David Leigh and Richard Norton-Taylor, offers > further details. The war against the terrorists, > says the Guardian, has undermined the Saudi > state. While nearly everyone celebrates the fall > of Kabul, senior Western policy-makers are > wringing their hands. According to the Guardian, > "the real cancer in the Middle East is not > Afghanistan, but Saudi Arabia." > > "The Saudi royals have been paying off the > terrorists with danegeld for a long while," says > one of the Guardian's highly placed government > sources. The Saudis, it turns out, are not really > pro-terrorist inasmuch as they are unscrupulous, > frightened and greedy. Sitting on 25 percent of > the world's oil reserves, the Saudi princes wish > to preserve their good fortune. But as Russia's > output causes oil prices to fall, the Saudis find > themselves without the necessary funds to pay > everyone off. > > People who don't get paid can make a nuisance of > themselves. > > We are now seeing the de-stabilization of the Middle > East. On the one hand, Islamic terrorists are destroying > any hope of peace inside the state of Israel. On the other > hand, the falling price of oil is undermining the crucial > American ally in the region, the Saudi royal family. > Russia is clearly the winner. Nyquist continues: > > While browsing through old news clippings last > week, I happened upon a 1997 article by Richard > Staar, a senior fellow at the Hoover Institution, > titled "Russia's strategy for the Islamic states > and the U.S." According to Staar, the secretary > of Russia's Defense Council, Yuri Baturin, openly > admitted that Russia's new national security > concept revolved around an "attempt to divert > Islamic aggression away from Russia toward the > United States and Israel." > > By exporting nuclear technology to Islamists and > by sending 10,000 Russian specialists to Iran, > Russia hoped to solidify what then Russian > Foreign Minister Yevgeny Primakov called a > "strategic partnership" between the Kremlin and > radical Islam. By helping the Syrians build VX > nerve gas sites near Damascus, by opposing > sanctions on terrorist Libya, by selling heavy > weapons to Iraq via China, the Russians > ingratiated themselves with the most violent > people in the Islamic world. "Over an eight-year > period," wrote Staar, "purchases by former rogue > states suggest a continuity between policies of > the Soviet Union and Russia." . . . > > And then there is Russia's alliance with > communist China. Once again, it is a strategic > move that demands an explanation. But the > experts are silenced by the requirements of > economic optimism. This is the same economic > optimism that leads us to obfuscate China's > support for the Taliban. Many observers sneered > at the DEBKA File intelligence report that > alleged the dispatch of ethnic Moslem troops from > the People's Liberation Army to Afghanistan. But > last week Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld > acknowledged that Chinese nationals were fighting > alongside the Taliban forces at the city of > Kunduz. > > As the conflict in Afghanistan drags on, the > cancer on the Saudi monarchy grows. Even as North > Korea threatens war against South Korea and China > threatens Taiwan, all eyes are focused on the > West's oil supplies. Meanwhile, Russia smiles > and points to its new pipelines and oil > refineries. If Saudi Arabia's oil fields are > shut down by terror strikes, the price of oil > could reach $100 per barrel. > > http://www.financialsense.com/stormwatch/geo/pastanalysis/112601.htm > > Nyquist believes that there is an undercurrent of > Marxism-Leninism that still fuels Russian expansion. I > think he is wrong. Marxism was a spent force long before > the Soviet Union fell. Marxism's messianic promises of > universal prosperity and freedom were no longer believed. > The dream had been replaced by massive Russian bureaucracy > and the elite control by the Communist Party, which > constituted about 3% of the population. After 1980, the > best and the brightest young people were not joining the > Communist Party. They were going into business. > > American foreign policy in the twentieth century was > based on a myth: that you can always work a deal with your > opponent -- buy him off, in other words. Our foreign > policy experts still assume this. It's incorrect. The > interests of rival expansionist empires always clash. The > Russians and the Chinese are still our rivals, despite > trade agreements. > > Every empire uses State power to back up its > interests. We are using ours in the Middle East and > Afghanistan, hoping that the United Nations will secure our > interests in the Great Game. This faith in the UN is > misplaced. The Russians and the Chinese are dead set on > cutting off our influence and the UN's in the region. The > UN will be the front, but when warring Afghan factions go > back to slaughtering each other, the only issue that will > matter to the three empires is who controls the flow of oil > and money. Russia looks like the winner on the money- > collection side of the equation. Russia's client Muslim > states have the oil, and it is allied with the Northern > Alliance, which the United States has now empowered. > > RECESSION AND DEFLATION > > Russia's expansion of oil output was good for the > Western economy in the short run -- cheaper energy -- but > it was disrupting geopolitics. Existing investments in > energy are producing losses, as the Enron debacle > indicates. The West's debt structure through the banks and > the complexities of the derivatives market place it at > risk. We will see if Russia holds the line on oil output. > I don't think this is likely. There is too much money at > stake. If America's Middle Eastern allies can be > undermined by lower oil prices, this will place Russia in > the catbird seat. > > We are now seeing price deflation of commodities on an > international scale. Unemployment keeps rising, despite > lower interest rates. The U.S. recession is now apparent > even to the cheerleaders. But the stock market is held up > by faith. Investors think that it will come back and > recover its 1999 upward move. This faith is held > tenaciously. > > One thing is sure: retirement creates a need for > income, and without dividends, stock holders who are facing > retirement have to sell at least a portion of their > portfolios. The greater fool theory cannot withstand the > pressure of sales by retirees. There is no possibility > that today's level of prices can be maintained, once the > retirees start selling. This is what has destroyed all > chances of recovery in the Japanese stock market. The > downward selling pressure is too great in an aging > population. This pressure is not immediate in the U.S., > but it is there, like a shadow, when it comes to any > consideration of "Dow 36,000." > > The question is: Will lower short-term interest rates > make it possible for corporations to increase their > profitability? The answer is no. The problem of corporate > finance is the bond market, not the money market. If the > FED increases the rate of monetary inflation, the bond > market will drop when price inflation produces rising long- > term rates. Debts must be paid off. In a world of > escalating international competition and falling retail > prices, American companies will not be rushing to expand > long-term debt until profitability turns upward. There is > no sign of this yet. > > In fact, the United States is in the midst of a > secular decline in manufacturing that is worse than > anything we have experienced seen since 1932. There have > been consecutive 16 months of contraction. The statistics > on the backlog of orders are even worse. Demand continues > to fall. > > NAPM's Backlog of Orders Index indicates that > order backlogs declined for the 19th consecutive > month. NAPM's Supplier Deliveries Index > continues to reflect faster deliveries. > Manufacturing employment continued to decline in > November as the index fell below the breakeven > point (an index of 50 percent) for the 14th > consecutive month. NAPM's Prices Index remained > below 50 percent as manufacturers experienced > lower prices for the ninth consecutive month. > New Export Orders contracted in November for the > third consecutive month. November's Imports > Index moved upward but still failed to show > growth for the month. Comments from purchasing > and supply executives this month reflect > continuing concern about the overall economy, but > appear more optimistic than last month. . . . > > "The overall picture is one of continued decline > in manufacturing activity during the month of > November," added Ore. "The manufacturing decline > is now in its 16th month and even with this > month's signs of encouragement, it takes time to > build a recovery across the sector. The sharp > decline in new orders and production during > October signaled the possibility of an > involuntary inventory build, but is not confirmed > by the data." . . . > > http://www.napm.org/NAPMReport/ROB122001.cfm > > Yesterday's rise in the stock market may be saying > that good economic news lies ahead. Or it may only be > saying that hope springs, if not eternal, then at least in > bear market rallies. > > Manufacturing is under the gun. Demand is falling, > and competition from foreign producers is becoming more > price competitive. Export-dependent Asian countries are in > a full-scale recession. They are desperate to generate > sales. America's service sector is not suffering to the > same degree as manufacturing because services are less > vulnerable to competition from abroad. But there will be > no recovery of the U.S. economy if the manufacturing sector > continues to contract. > > CONCLUSION > > The official news from Afghanistan is that America is > winning the war. The fact is, Russia is winning the war > under the cover of U.S. bombs and a UN umbrella. Of > course, Afghan warlords will determine who wins the > pipeline competition unless the Caspian Sea states decide > to cut a deal with Iran. That would surely seem the safer > way to go. > > Economically speaking, it doesn't really matter to > energy users who gets the money. What is important is that > more energy is available. But geopolitics colors > everything. The U.S. wants revenge against Iran and Iraq. > It also wants stability in Saudi Arabia. The pipeline will > undermine OPEC and strengthen Muslim client states of > Russia. > > We are winning the ground war in Afghanistan, but > losing the Great Game. 'Twas a famous victory. > > * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * <A HREF="http://www.ctrl.org/";>www.ctrl.org</A> DECLARATION & DISCLAIMER ========== CTRL is a discussion & informational exchange list. Proselytizing propagandic screeds are unwelcomed. Substance�not soap-boxing�please! These are sordid matters and 'conspiracy theory'�with its many half-truths, mis- directions and outright frauds�is used politically by different groups with major and minor effects spread throughout the spectrum of time and thought. That being said, CTRLgives no endorsement to the validity of posts, and always suggests to readers; be wary of what you read. 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