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Published on Sunday, December 9, 2001 in the Toronto Sun
America's New War: A Progress Report
by Eric Margolis

What has the U.S. achieved after waging war for the past two months
in Afghanistan?

* Afghanistan's de facto government, the Taliban, an Islamic
religious movement with about 30,000 armed supporters, has been
overthrown and scattered. After holding out for five weeks under
massive U.S. bombardments, its leader, Mullah Omar, ordered his men
to retreat to the mountains. Omar, who may be shortly captured or
killed, claimed he ordered the retreat to spare civilians in Taliban-
ruled areas from U.S. bombing.

To date, the U.S. has dropped 10,000 bombs on Afghanistan, killing sizable numbers of 
civilians - in the range of 1,500-2,000, according to Afghan sources. U.S. bombing of 
cities, towns and villages has driven over 160,00
0 people into refugee camps.

* On Dec. 3, 2000 - one year ago - this column said that overthrowing the Taliban 
would "pave the way for a second Russian occupation of Afghanistan." This has now 
happened. The Northern Alliance, armed and funded by Russ
ia, directed by the Afghan Communist party and under the overall command of the chief 
of the Russian general staff, Marshall Viktor Kvashnin, deputy KGB director Viktor 
Komogorov, and a cadre of Russian advisers, seized K
abul and all of northern Afghanistan. U.S. President George Bush committed a colossal, 
inexcusable blunder. If this column could foresee Russian intervention, why didn't the 
White House?

* Last week's much-ballyhooed Afghan "unity" conference in Germany produced precisely 
what this column predicted: a sham "coalition" government run by the Northern 
Alliance. One of the CIA's Pashtun "assets," Hamid Karzai
, who represents no one but himself, was named prime minister. There was no other real 
Pashtun representation, though they comprise half the population.

Of 30 cabinet seats, two-thirds went to Northern Alliance Tajiks, notably the power 
ministries of defence, the interior and foreign affairs. Two women were added for 
window dressing to please the West. The 87-year old dep
osed Afghan king, Zahir Shah, widely blamed for allowing the communists to infiltrate 
Afghanistan in the 1970s, was invited back as a figurehead monarch. In short, a 
communist-dominated regime, ruled by a king, whose stri
ngs are pulled by Moscow. Quite a bizarre creation.

FEUDING STARTS

The very next day, feuding broke out among Alliance members. Old communist stalwart 
Rashid Dostam, who had just finished massacring hundreds of Taliban prisoners with 
American and British help, threatened war if his Uzbek
s did not get more spoils. My old friend, the Alliance's figurehead president, Prof. 
Burhanuddin Rabbani, a respected Islamic scholar, was shoved aside by young communists.

* The Bush administration was apparently too preoccupied chasing Osama bin Laden to 
notice its new best friend, Russia, had broken its agreement to wait for formation of 
a pro- U.S., pro-Pakistani regime, and seized half
of Afghanistan. Marshall Kvashnin rushed his men into Kabul, just as he outfoxed the 
Americans in 1999 in a similar coup de main in Kosovo.

* The hunt for bin Laden and his Al-Qaida continues. A few senior figures have been 
killed, likely including Dr. Ayman al-Zawahiri, leader of Egypt's Islamic Jihad. The 
net is closing around bin Laden's possible hiding pl
aces. Unless he has escaped Afghanistan, his capture or death appear imminent. This 
will be welcome news for the Bush administration. If bin Laden somehow escapes, or his 
body is never found, Bush will be accused of blowi
ng apart Afghanistan, killing large numbers of civilians, and allowing the Russians to 
grab back the country, all for nothing.

* The late Pashtun leader Abdul Haq, whom I knew from my Peshawar days, warned the 
U.S. before his death that bombing Afghanistan was unnecessary and a grave mistake. 
Taliban control could be broken, where needed, by fina
ncing tribal uprisings - the standard form of Afghan warfare - without foreign 
intervention. Otherwise, he warned, the Northern Alliance would take over and bring in 
the Russians. He pleaded with Washington for restraint,
 but to no avail. Haq was captured by the Taliban during a bungled CIA operation and 
hanged.

But Haq was right. U.S. forces could have hunted bin Laden in southern Afghanistan 
with relative impunity, as they are now doing, without having to launch a total war 
against the Taliban. U.S. air power totally dominates
barren Afghanistan. Taliban forces could not move or communicate. There were only a 
small number of Taliban fighters in southern Afghanistan where bin Laden was hiding.

Bombing Afghan civilian centres was absolutely unnecessary. The only real military 
targets offered by the Taliban were its entrenched troops facing the Alliance. It was 
remarkable the Taliban managed to withstand five wee
ks of carpet bombing by U.S. B-52s - particularly, as one Pakistani writer wryly 
noted, after his nation gave in to the U.S. after only a threatening phone call from 
Washington.

The U.S. could have hunted bin Laden without allowing the Russians to recapture half 
of Afghanistan, a severe geopolitical defeat for American ambitions to use that nation 
as a gateway to Central Asian oil and gas. And wi
thout blasting to rubble what little remained of demolished Afghanistan, and without 
driving 160,000 civilians into terrified flight.

So, after eight weeks of war, the Taliban is out, the communists are in power in Kabul 
and the south is in chaos. The war has cost Washington US$60 billion to date. 
Afghanistan is a bloody mess. And Vladimir Putin is smil
ing.

Copyright � 2001, Canoe Limited Partnership

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