-Caveat Lector-

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Normally I don't forward promotional
material, but the economic analysis
and warning in this
particular piece is worth the read. The three charts
in the
analytical section provide a profile of the American
economy that
the Wall Street crowd and government
apologists don't talk about.

Christian conservative Gary
North included the URL for this page in a
piece someone
forwarded to me. I found it to be more than interesting
in
that the analysis is based on key components I focused
on when I was
blamed for being one of the nation's more
accurate independent economic
prognosticators -- an
enterprise I pretty well had to abandon when I
began study
of law in 1993.

The life blood of the American economy is
consumer spending. It accounts
for about two-thirds of our
economic activity. When the consumer quits
spending, the
economy falls in the ditch. It's that simple.

Consumer
spending is determined by disposable income and the amount
of
credit consumers have available. A key that I watched
was the percentage
of disposable income consumers had
obligated to consumer debt, i.e., how
much is the household
paying on credit card pruchases, installment
purchases,
etc.? Any time the commitment to consumer debt bounced
above
15%, we went into recession mode.

There was
something of a landmark in this area approximately a
quarter
century ago: In 1977, Sears, Roebuck & Co., at the
time the nation's
largest retailer, made more on credit
card interest than on merchandise
profits. Since then the
American consumer has been on what amounts to a
speculative
binge. One of the charts in the article I'm forwarding
shows
the steady reduction in savings since that
approximate timeframe.

In a word, America is living on
borrowed money. One of the underlying
questions is, "Who
holds the debt?"

Another of the charts in the article
shows the American balance of
payments. Aside from public
debt soaring in the 1980's and after, our
astronomical
trade deficit has put us in a real hole. The
cumulative
deficit is in the neighborhood of $7 trillion
and growing. The entire
sum is in peril when the American
consumer market dries up. There are
serious implications
for the global economy, not just the American
economy.

I
envision that those subscribed to the DanMeador list who
follow
economic matters will appreciate the article. I
haven't reviewed the
investment options recommended by
these people so this isn't an
endorsement of whatever
they're marketing.

Dan Meador




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