-Caveat Lector-
------- Forwarded message follows -------
Subject: [PNEWS] OPED: More Than Bush Bargained For - and the Peter
Principle?
[We probably don't need any comments beyond what has been written
here
by Eric Margolis. The point has been made. We are on the brink of
nuclear war and Bush is way over his head. Yesterday an article
posted
here by a psychologist described how Americans are transferring their
hopes and confidence onto George Bush. They want him to succeed and
I
so do I if the alternative means nuclear war - but I have no
confidence in the man who is a walking, talking example of the Peter
Principle; Bush walked into the White House and achieved his level
of
incompetence. Thanks to Professor Phil Gasper for providing this
analysis from the Toronto Sun..TheGolem]
From: Phil Gasper <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>
Toronto Sun
January 6, 2002
More Than Bush Bargained For?
American Involvement Has South Asia on the Brink of Nuclear War
by Eric Margolis
U.S. President George Bush's crusade against terrorism is going
splendidly - except for a few minor hiccups, such as that Osama bin
Laden and his al-Qaida remain elusive, the Russians have reoccupied
half of Afghanistan, perhaps thousands of Afghan civilians have been
killed by U.S. bombs and India is now threatening war against
Pakistan.
Last Sept. 23, concerned that U.S. intervention in Afghanistan might
spark a war between India and Pakistan, this column warned of the
dangers of an "enraged U.S. bull in South Asia's nuclear china shop."
Ten weeks later, India and Pakistan are on the edge of a nuclear
conflict that could kill millions and spread radioactive dust around
the globe.
The chain of events that led to this crisis is now plainly visible.
America's "war against terrorism" and invasion of Afghanistan upset
the delicate balance of enmity between old foes India and Pakistan,
who have fought three major wars. The Bush administration, seeking new
allies for its crusade against Muslim opponents, rashly signed a
military alliance with India to fight "terrorism." To India,
"terrorism" meant Kashmiri independence-seekers battling Indian rule
and their patron, Pakistan.
The Bush administration, unaware of the dangers facing it, had
inadvertently stumbled into the 55-year old Kashmir dispute between
three nuclear powers - India, Pakistan, and China - just as it was
getting drawn ever deeper into Afghanistan's murky tribal politics.
Still unidentified terrorists staged a series of outrageous attacks on
Indian targets, including the parliament in New Delhi, designed to
bring simmering tensions between the two old foes to a boil, and upset
India's new alliances with the U.S. and with Israel. Bin Laden's
al-Qaida may have been involved. The attackers remain unidentified,
though India claims they came from two Kashmiri militant groups
harboured by Pakistan.
India threatened to attack Islamic militants based in Pakistani
territory, as it has repeatedly done in the past. If the U.S. could
attack Afghanistan because the elusive bin Laden was presumed hiding
there, then India, according to President Bush's own self-proclaimed
rules of international retribution, had just as much right to attack
Pakistan. The Indians, of course, were absolutely correct. But the
U.S. is now urging restraint on India, a virtue it failed to show in
Afghanistan.
CHINA CONCERNED
Off on the sidelines, China, another player in this drama, is also
urging restraint on all concerned. Yet, at the same time, China is
growing increasingly alarmed by what now looks like a permanent
presence of U.S. forces in Afghanistan, and the threat of an Indian
attack against its most important ally, Pakistan.
China's unease is being heightened by the accelerating strategic arms
race with India, which in 1998 proclaimed China its "No. 1 enemy."
India recently introduced its new Agni-II nuclear-armed missile that
can hit most of China's major cities.
The U.S. has aggravated Indian-Chinese tensions by sharply tilting
toward India and winking at its secret nuclear programs, while keeping
Pakistan under a punishing sanctions regime. Washington clearly
intends to use India in the game of Asian strategic chess as a
potential counterforce against China. Russia is levering its revived
strategic alliance with India to advance its geopolitical interests in
South and Central Asia, most notably in Afghanistan.
Meanwhile, Pakistan's military leader, Gen. Pervez Musharraf, finds
himself squeezed between Indian threats and U.S. pressure. Musharraf
has been trying to appease New Delhi without appearing to do so. Last
week, in an embarrassing new low for Pakistan's image, Musharraf, who
stoutly denied in the past that his nation gave anything more than
"moral support" to Kashmiri insurgents, lamely announced his
intelligence service would cut off arms and financing to "foreign"
mujahedeen in Kashmir. The Indians, who have long accused Pakistan of
"cross-border terrorism" and sending mercenaries into their part of
Kashmir, crowed with triumph while Islamabad ate crow.
PAKISTAN ALONE
As India continued to mass troops on Pakistan's border, the U.S.
repeated threats, made in September, to ruin Pakistan by cutting off
the foreign loans on which it subsists. Adding to these threats, the
Indian Navy is poised to blockade Karachi, Pakistan's main port and
principal entry point for oil. Spare parts for Pakistan's F-16
warplanes are critically short. Pakistan finds itself alone, facing
the Russians to the north in Afghanistan, fire-breathing India to the
east and ever-hostile Iran to the west.
Musharraf's enforced backdown over Kashmir may further undermine his
support in the armed forces and among the public, already badly
battered by the recent fiasco in Afghanistan and the arrest or
muzzling, under American orders, of large numbers of Islamic activists
and government critics. The two worst public jobs in the world today
appear to be the presidencies of Pakistan and Argentina.
India, hopefully, will content itself with making the irksome "Paks"
crawl and cry uncle. A new outrage by militants, a border clash, or a
bombing could still plunge the region that holds 20% of the world's
population, into a nuclear war.
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