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ABDULLAH TO ARAMCO: 'THE PARTY'S OVER' The Saudis, usually close-mouthed about business matters and subtle policy shifts, were more than forthcoming in broadcasting their declaration of independence. Prince Abdullah went to the trouble of granting an unusual interview, in which he said exactly what happened at that historic meeting: "In 1998 I had a chance to meet with a number of executives from major oil companies. We had discussed the investment opportunities in the Kingdom especially in light of its stability and the availability of huge oil and gas reserves. I had indicated to them, at that time, that we welcome, and we will be willing to look into, any investment ideas that might be of benefit to both sides." THE SAUDIS AND THE 'SILK ROAD' Abdullah's vision of a modernized Saudi Arabia is to be financed by a new arrangement with Western oil companies, and an opening up of the Saudi economy to competitive foreign investment. He boasted of receiving proposals "from 18 of the top oil companies in the world" worth a total exceeding one hundred billion dollars and ranging from "production, processing, transporting and distributing of gas to refining, transporting and marketing of oil and building the required infrastructure." The Prince went on to politely but firmly declare his defiance: "All this will take us a long way towards the creation of a solid and integrated economy that realizes the full economic potentials of the oil and gas industry and will open new and wide investment opportunities for the Saudi private sector. And it is important to keep in mind that money invested in projects in Saudi Arabia means less money available for investment in competing projects elsewhere." TWO CAN PLAY A very interesting comment, that last: what are these "competing projects"? This is none other than the Transcaucasian "Silk Road" pipeline project, slated to extend from the Caspian Sea oilfields to Turkey, and perhaps down through Afghanistan to the Indian Ocean. This project has long been on the drawing boards, and the Clinton administration took it up with alacrity, even going so far as to set up a special department to facilitate its creation. If the foreign oil companies were going to try to go around them, said the Prince in so many words, then two could play that game: Q: "Your Royal Highness what about Saudi Aramco? Will it assume a new role following the formation of the council and the invitation of the international oil companies?" A: "We are proud of Aramco's achievements through the years and our dealings with foreign companies will never be at the expense of Aramco. I believe the presence of these companies will strengthen Aramco and sharpen its competitive edge. Aramco, has, I believe, the administrative and technical expertise and know-how that enable it to compete effectively with these companies." FREE MARKET ECONOMICS 101 With the price of oil steadily falling, Abdullah is strapped for cash. Darwish cites Yehya Sadowski, associate professor of Middle East studies at Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies, who says the Saudis exhausted their capital assets paying off the US for the cost of the Gulf War. Faced with the looming prospect of bankruptcy, and increasing competition in the oil market from South America and Central Asian states of the former Soviet Union, Abdullah's choice was made out of necessity: the alternative is continued stagnation and the indefinite postponement of modernization. In any case, the glee with which the heir presumptive to the Saudi throne delivered a lecture on free market economics to the leading capitalists of the West should be shared and appreciated by free marketeers everywhere. A LESSON LEARNED In spite of the Prince's reassurances that the Rockefellers would get their fair share – and no more – it is doubtful that the assembled Aramco executives were all that appreciative of the little lesson in Economics 101. Their great unhappiness is what is really driving this anti-Saudi hysteria. Oh, you've got to modernize, say the globalist policy wonks, you've just got to open your borders to free trade and open up your markets to free competition: let the market rule! This is the advice routinely given, but, when it is finally taken, the reaction is a concerted campaign of calumny and vilification. ACCIDENTALLY ON PURPOSE After years of close military cooperation between the two countries, a female pilot pops up who objects to settled rules on proper attire while serving in the Saudi kingdom – and becomes a feminist icon overnight. All of a sudden, we hear from Andrew Sullivan about the persecution of homosexuals under the strictures of Sharia law, a cause that somehow previously escaped his attention. Virtually overnight it is discovered by all sorts of instant "experts" that Wahabism, the official state religion of our longstanding ally, is the equivalent of Nazism if not outright devil-worship. That this sudden awakening to the alleged "Saudi threat" occurred in tandem with the Rockefeller's acrimonious (and costly) break with the House of Saud is, of course, the purest coincidence. THE NEW COLD WAR A number of public figures have weighed in on this potentially explosive issue: Bill Clinton warned against the withdrawal of US troops from the region (surely an argument in favor), while Neil Bush urged the Saudis to make a better case for themselves. But the momentum is all the other way, and, while the administration is denying that any withdrawal is being contemplated, clearly the Bush people are speaking only for themselves. For if and when Abdullah asks the US to set a departure date, this is sure to set off a new round of renewed Saudi-bashing, one that the new cold warriors look forward to with gusto – and which the rest of us have good reason to fear. A GREAT DANGER The dissolution of the Rockefeller oil monopoly, and the creation of a truly independent Saudi Arabia, with freer markets and without the burden of justifying the presence of foreign troops on its soil, will strengthen the forces of modernization and expand the margins of freedom in the Middle East. That is why the withdrawal of US forces would be a giant step forward in defeating the Bin Ladens of this world. It is a divorce that will benefit both: however, all divorces contain some bitterness, no matter how outwardly amicable, and it is going to be all too easy for the War Party to segue straight into an adversarial relationship with our former ally. And therein lies a great danger. THIRSTY FOR BLOOD With Max Boot of the War Street Journal complaining about the paucity of American casualties in Afghanistan, clearly our bloodthirsty hawks were disappointed in the brevity of the Afghan campaign, and yearn for more. The same arguments made by the warhawks of National Review for an invasion of Iraq could be applied with even more force to an alleged "threat" from Riyadh. As our foreign policy tends inexorably toward an all-out assault on the entire Arab world, the Saudis will take the place of the Soviets in the demonology of the new cold war – at least that is the hope in certain quarters. THE VENTRILOQUISTS When Crown Prince Abdullah called off his sweetheart deal with Aramco, he incurred the wrath of some very powerful people, and it was only natural that they would seek revenge. Speaking through Jeff Jacoby – in an act of ventriloquism that no doubt had the dummy-columnist's full cooperation – the Aramco-Rockefeller consortium delivered this "ultimatum" to their former business partners: "We would make it clear to the Saudi princes that we expect their full cooperation no matter where the war on terrorism takes us. And if it takes us to a land war in Iraq, Saudi Arabia will make its military bases available for staging the invasion. "Will the Saudis refuse? Will they protest that complying with our demands will mean the toppling of their regime? Either way, our course will be clear: We will seize and secure the oil fields." How convenient. "But our purpose would not be plunder." Oh, of course not! "We would appoint a respected, pro-Western Muslim ally to run the oil industry in trust for the Muslim world." I imagine Aramco has a few suggestions. "No longer would the petro-wealth of Arabia be used to advance Islamist fanaticism and terror – or to maintain a decadent royal family in corrupt opulence. It would be used, rather, to promote education, health, and democracy throughout the Middle East." – and to fill the coffers of the Rockefellers and their corporate allies, who won't allow the prize of oil-rich Araby to escape their grasp quite so readily. "The Gulf's great riches, now a well spring of disorder and unrest, could be transformed into a force for decency, stability, and peace." The Gulf's great riches, in other words, will stay right where they are: securely deposited in Armaco's bank account. So the revenge of the Rockefellers plays itself out on the world stage: they'll retain their monopoly on the largest known oil reserves – one way or the other. BUSH PAYS THE PRICE So far, President Bush has made it plain that he does not mean to wage war on Islam, and for that he is being made to pay a price. While his State Department is struggling to undo the damage done by the anti-Saudi media and the Lieberman- Levine assault in Congress, a grand coalition of left and right is pushing for World War III in the Middle East – a war that, given the presence of Pakistan and India (not to mention Israel) in the equation, could quickly go nuclear. |
