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WSWS : News & Analysis : Asia : Korea
Bush�s "evil axis" speech destabilises the Korean peninsula
By James Conachy
15 February 2002
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The threat of US military action against North Korea implicit in
George Bush�s State of the Union address has cast a pall over the
South Korean government�s �sunshine policy� of rapprochement with
Pyongyang and revived fears of another conflagration on the Korean
peninsula. Along with Iran and Iraq, the US president labelled North
Korea as part of an �axis of evil� that would be targetted as part of
his �global war on terrorism�.
Just 18 months ago, it appeared that decades of such hostility were
coming to an end. A political detente was well underway between North
and South Korea, following an inter-Korea summit in June 2000, and
work had begun on joint economic projects. Subsequently, 10 of the 12
European Union nations, including Italy, Germany and Britain, had
restored diplomatic relations with Pyongyang, as had Australia and
the Association of South East Asian Nations (ASEAN) states.
But the prospects dramatically cooled after Bush�s installation last year. His
administration withdrew the tentative support for the �sunshine policy� given by the
previous Clinton White House, suspended talks with Pyongy
ang, raised unacceptable demands on the North that it reduce the size of its
conventional military forces and accused it, without evidence, of developing nuclear
and biological weapons.
Now, after months of provocation, Bush has openly set a course for conflict. The North
Korean regime has responded by labelling the State of the Union speech as �little
short of a declaration of war� and warned it is unde
rtaking the necessary defensive preparations. A heightened state of alert exists on
both sides of the Korean border, with half a million heavily armed North Korean troops
facing an equal number of South Korean and America
n forces.
The immediate consequence of Bush�s speech has been to plunge South Korea into
political turmoil. Opposition has emerged across the political spectrum over the
danger of war. President Kim Dae-jung, author of the �sunshin
e policy�, warned on February 5: �We must think of the monstrous damage that a war on
the Korean peninsula would cause.�
Among millions of Korean people, the memories and impact of the 1950-53 Korean War
have not faded. More than four million Koreans lost their lives and millions more were
maimed or lost everything they owned. The peninsula
was laid waste and took decades to recover. Today, millions of South Koreans live
within artillery range of North Korea.
Student associations, trade unions and religious groups are preparing anti-US and
pro-peace demonstrations to coincide with Bush�s upcoming February 19 visit to Seoul.
An opinion poll on February 11 found more than 56 per
cent of South Koreans believe Bush�s speech to be �inappropriate�, while 70 percent
believed the US should hold talks with the North. Only 15 percent voiced support for a
policy of military pressure on Pyongyang.
The extent of the opposition is best gauged by the bitter divisions that have emerged
within the right-wing opposition Grand National Party (GNP), which has close ties to
the past US- backed military dictatorships in Sout
h Korea. Until now, the GNP has aligned itself with the US administration�s criticisms
of the �sunshine policy�. While its leader initially expressed agreement with Bush�s
speech, other GNP legislators have virulently den
ounced it. One declared at a February 3 press conference: �A country [the US] trying
to ignite a war on the peninsula, for any reason, cannot be our ally.� A GNP official
told the Korea Times: �We cannot recklessly lend f
ull support to Bush�s position, in light of the escalating anti-American sentiment.�
A grouping of both government and GNP legislators went as far as submitting a
resolution to the parliament on February 7 calling on Kim Dae-jung to demand the US
support the �sunshine policy�. According to the Korea Times
, the resolution argued: �The biggest threat to US national security is not
sophisticated missiles, but the anti-US sentiment stemming from its hegemonic attitude
toward weak countries, its Middle East policy in favour of
Israel and its hardline policy toward the North.�
Bush�s stance toward North Korea has also provoked criticisms internationally.
Japanese Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi bluntly stated on February 6 that his
government would not change its policy toward North Korea and
would �work patiently to make progress in talks on normalising diplomatic ties�.
European governments have made clear their continued support for the �sunshine
policy�. Russia and China both officially disagreed with the
term �axis of evil�.
Strategic issues
The accusation that North Korea is a sponsor of global terrorism or a threat to the US
flies in the face of reality. North Korea had no involvement in the September 11
attack. It is a backward, famine-stricken and impover
ished state, with a population of just 24 million and a Gross Domestic Product (GDP)
of little more than $US10 billion. Much of its military�s obsolete Soviet-era
equipment is dysfunctional due to lack of fuel, spare part
s and maintenance.
Far from �threatening the world�, Pyongyang has repeatedly sought to appease the US
and South Korea since the dissolution of the Soviet Union in 1991, its main Cold War
sponsor. In 1994, it closed down its nuclear reactor
s after the threat of military strikes by the Clinton administration. International
teams that inspected the sites found no evidence that North Korea possessed either
nuclear or biological weapons. In 1998, also following
US threats, North Korea suspended its long-range missile program and has not resumed
it.
In his speech, Bush cynically accused North Korea of �arming with missiles and weapons
of mass destruction, while starving its citizens�. Firstly, both Koreas maintain a
huge military following a war that has never offici
ally ended. In the case of South Korea, it is backed by the might of the US war
machine, including the presence of 37,000 US troops. Secondly, for Pyongyang, the
development and sale of missiles and other armaments is one
of its few means of earning foreign currency. The US has directly contributed to the
economic chaos in North Korea, and thus to the country�s poverty and famine, by
maintaining a strict economic blockade dating back to t
he Korean War.
Bush�s targeting of North Korea is bound up with major power rivalry in North East
Asia. North Korea�s concessions to Washington were not only the product of US threats
and pressure. Pyongyang has been encouraged by both
South Korea and China to seek a rapprochement in order to open up the peninsula to
foreign investment and as a land route for trade and energy to East Asia.
Sections of big business in both Asia and Europe regard the Korean peninsula as a key
to Eurasian economic integration. Work began last year on linking Russia�s
trans-Siberian railway from Europe to both China and South K
orea�s ports. The move has the potential to cut container transport time between the
EU and East Asia by more than 10 days. Feasibility studies have been conducted for gas
pipelines from Russia through China and the North
for use in South Korea and export to Japan. Special economic zones are planned in
North Korea and also China�s depressed northern provinces, offering export companies a
continuous supply of low-cost, politically represse
d labour near the Japanese market and with fast land transport routes to Europe.
It is precisely the possibility that the �sunshine policy� could be successful that is
animating the hardline stance of the US administration. Bush�s prime target is not so
much North Korea but China, which rightwing Repu
blicans regard as the main threat to US economic and military dominance in the region.
Throughout the US presidential election campaign, Bush referred to China as �a
strategic competitor�.
The realisation of the �sunshine policy� would remove a major justification for the
large US troop presence in South Korea and Japan�defending them against the North
Korean threat. At the same time it would economically s
trengthen a regime with close relations to Beijing. It would inevitably, and most
likely rapidly, draw South Korea, Russia and Japan into closer economic and security
ties with China, as well as encouraging a greater Euro
pean interest in the region.
Against this perspective, Bush is advancing the consistent policy of the Republican
rightwing, which throughout the 1990s advocated the complete isolation of North Korea
through economic sanctions, diplomatic pressure and
military threats. The stated aim has been to precipitate the political and social
disintegration of the country, regardless of the consequences for the Korean people.
Such a scenario would disrupt the economic developmen
t of China, as well as position the US to increase military pressure against it.
The same layers of the US administration who are pushing for aggressive action against
North Korea are also the most virulent exponents of a confrontational policy against
Beijing, including the recognition of Taiwan as a
separate state. Among them is Bush�s Assistant Secretary of State Richard Armitage,
who in the 1990s opposed any dispatch of international food aid to North Korea, on the
grounds that it would assist the Pyongyang regime
survive.
As was revealed several years ago, the Pentagon has already drawn up plans for a �pre-
emptive� invasion of North Korea to overthrow the government and move troops to the
Chinese border. In November 1998, Richard Halloran
, former military correspondent for the New York Times and director of the Center of
War, Peace and News Media, published a detailed account.
According to Halloran, the American military has target lists of North Korean military
positions, underground bunkers and government facilities. An unnamed senior US
official told him at the time: �When we�re done, they w
ill not be able to mount any military activity of any kind. We will kill them all.�
The plan assumes that the South Korean ruling elites would be prepared to sacrifice
their economic interests, send hundreds of thousands of troops over the border and
bear the cost of permanently occupying the North; that
US air power would so completely destroy the North�s military it could not launch a
counter-attack; that Japan would participate and allow bases on its soil to be used
for the air strikes; and that China, Russia and the
EU would not intervene.
There is no doubt that this particular piece of military madness, along with others,
is now up for review and discussion in the White House and the Pentagon.
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