-Caveat Lector-

>From http://www.guardian.co.uk/israel/Story/0,2763,683678,00.html

}}}>Begin
Analysis

Next time Bush must not be first to blink

Julian Borger in Washington
Saturday April 13, 2002
The Guardian

Even before Colin Powell plunged into his long-shot attempt to achieve a Middle East
ceasefire yesterday, the US secretary of state's negotiating power had been
undermined by the White House, which unceremoniously backed down from a
confrontation with Ariel Sharon.

Having insisted on Sunday that the Israeli prime minister withdraw his troops from
the West Bank "now, without delay, not tomorrow" - in the words of the national
security adviser, Condoleezza Rice - by the end of the week the White House had
dropped all expressions of urgency.

When Mr Powell met Mr Sharon yesterday, both would have been keenly aware of
the vacillation back in Washington, and it showed in their remarks. The secretary of
state of the world's sole superpower was reduced to expressing hope that an
agreement could be reached on a withdrawal timetable, while the Israeli leader
simply restated his position. His troops would leave when they were good and ready.

At the White House, the president's spokesman, Ari Fleischer, lauded Mr Sharon as
"a man of peace", and stressed that the decision to meet with Yasser Arafat had
been Mr Powell's alone.

President Bush went eyeball to eyeball with Mr Sharon and blinked, in an inverted
replay of his father's clash a decade ago with another Israeli rightwinger, Yitzhak
Shamir. Mr Shamir clashed with Bush senior and lost his job in part because he had
lost US confidence. The incident contributed to the conventional wisdom that no
Israeli leader could afford to alienate the Americans. That may still hold in the long-
term, but not under present circumstances.

Unlike his father, the current President Bush has yet to fight his war with Iraq, and
has no Arab coalition alongside him. Furthermore, the Israeli Labour party has been
crippled and the only real alternative to Mr Sharon is Binyamin Netanyahu who is
calling for Mr Arafat's deportation from the occupied territories - something Mr
Sharon would do if not constrained by his coalition partnership with Labour. Just in
case, he has reinforced the right wing of his government to give himself the option of
dropping Labour, if circumstances demand.

In Washington, there is minimal congressional backing for a tough stance towards
Israel. Mr Netanyahu was feted this week in Congress where Democrats and
Republicans vied to outdo each other to pledge backing for Israel. Meanwhile, Mr
Arafat has lost all sympathy by his failure to restrain terrorism. Support is building 
in
the Senate for a draft to brand the Palestinian Liberation Organisation a terrorist
group and shut down its Washington office.

But while the White House has made a dash for political safety, the logic of the
worsening situation in the Middle East is likely to drag it back into dangerous waters.
There is an imminent danger of a wider war. Washington is currently relying on
Moscow's good offices to persuade Syria and Iran to restrain Hizbullah in southern
Lebanon. Mr Powell has also been given a direct reminder by America's most
important Arab allies - Saudi Arabia, Jordan and Egypt - that their own stability is in
danger.

President Bush's immediate task is to prevent havoc spreading across the Middle
East. He will need his Arab allies to prod Mr Arafat towards a ceasefire, but their
support is contingent on Mr Sharon being bullied into a total withdrawal and the
immediate start of political negotiations aimed at the creation of the Palestinian 
state.
Sooner or later, Mr Bush will have to take Mr Sharon on once more, this time without
blinking.

Guardian Unlimited � Guardian Newspapers Limited 2002
End<{{{

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