-Caveat Lector-
From
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/main.jhtml?xml=/news/2002/04/28/wpal28.xml&sSh
eet=/news/2002/04/28/ixworld.html
}}}>Begin
Sharon's plan is to drive Palestinians across the Jordan
(Filed: 28/04/2002)
THE leading Israeli historian Martin van Creveld predicts that a US attack on Iraq or
a terrorist strike at home could trigger a massive mobilisation to clear the occupied
territories of their two million Arabs
Two years ago, less than eight per cent of those who took part in a Gallup poll
among Jewish Israelis said they were in favour of what is euphemistically called
"transfer" - that is, the expulsion of perhaps two million Palestinians across the
River
Jordan. This month that figure reached 44 per cent.
Ariel Sharon
Earlier this year, when a journalist asked Ariel Sharon whether he favoured such a
move, the Israeli prime minister said he did not think in such terms. A glance at his
memoirs, however, shows that he has not always been so fastidious.
In September 1970 King Hussein of Jordan fell on the Palestinians in his kingdom,
killing perhaps 5,000 to 10,000. The then Gen Sharon, serving as Commanding
Officer, Southern Front, argued that Israel's policy of helping the king was a mistake;
instead it should have tried to topple the Hashemite regime.
He has often said since that Jordan, which, according to him, has a Palestinian
majority even now, is the Palestinian state. The inference - that the Palestinians
should go there - is clear.
During its 1948 War of Independence, Israel drove 650,000 Palestinians from their
homes into neighbouring countries. If it were to try something similar today, the
outcome could well be a regional war. More and more people in Jerusalem believe
that such is Mr Sharon's objective.
It might explain why Mr Sharon, famous for his ability to plan ahead, appears not to
have a plan. In fact, he has always harboured a very clear plan - nothing less than to
rid Israel of the Palestinians.
Few people, least of all me, want the following events to happen. But such a scenario
could easily come about. Mr Sharon would have to wait for a suitable opportunity -
such as an American offensive against Iraq, which some Israelis think is going to
take place in early summer.
Mr Sharon himself told Colin Powell, the secretary of state, that America should not
allow the situation in Israel to delay the operation.
An uprising in Jordan, followed by the collapse of King Abdullah's regime, would also
present such an opportunity - as would a spectacular act of terrorism inside Israel
that killed hundreds.
Should such circumstances arise, then Israel would mobilise with lightning speed -
even now, much of its male population is on standby.
First, the country's three ultra-modern submarines would take up firing positions out
at sea. Borders would be closed, a news blackout imposed, and all foreign journalists
rounded up and confined to a hotel as guests of the Government.
A force of 12 divisions, 11 of them armoured, plus various territorial units suitable
for
occupation duties, would be deployed: five against Egypt, three against Syria, and
one opposite Lebanon. This would leave three to face east as well as enough forces
to put a tank inside every Arab-Israeli village just in case their populations get any
funny ideas.
The expulsion of the Palestinians would require only a few brigades. They would not
drag people out of their houses but use heavy artillery to drive them out; the damage
caused to Jenin would look like a pinprick in comparison.
Any outside intervention would be held off by the Israeli air force. In 1982, the last
time it engaged in large-scale operations, it destroyed 19 Syrian anti- aircraft
batteries and shot down 100 Syrian aircraft against the loss of one.
Its advantage is much greater now than it was then and would present an awesome
threat to any Syrian armoured attack on the Golan Heights.
As for the Egyptians, they are separated from Israel by 150 miles or so of open
desert. Judging by what happened in 1967, should they try to cross it they would be
destroyed.
The Jordanian and Lebanese armed forces are too small to count and Iraq is in no
position to intervene, given that it has not recovered its pre-1991 strength and is
being held down by the Americans. Saddam Hussein may launch some of the 30 to
40 missiles he probably has.
The damage they can do, however, is limited. Should Saddam be mad enough to
resort to weapons of mass destruction, then Israel's response would be so
"awesome and terrible" (as Yitzhak Shamir, the former prime minister, once said) as
to defy the imagination.
Some believe that the international community will not permit such an ethnic
cleansing. I would not count on it. If Mr Sharon decides to go ahead, the only country
that can stop him is the United States.
The US, however, regards itself as being at war with parts of the Muslim world that
have supported Osama bin Laden. America will not necessarily object to that world
being taught a lesson - particularly if it could be as swift and brutal as the 1967
campaign; and also particularly if it does not disrupt the flow of oil for too long.
Israeli military experts estimate that such a war could be over in just eight days. If
the
Arab states do not intervene, it will end with the Palestinians expelled and Jordan in
ruins.
If they do intervene, the result will be the same, with the main Arab armies destroyed.
Israel would, of course, take some casualties, especially in the north, where its
population would come under fire from Hizbollah.
However, their number would be limited and Israel would stand triumphant, as it did
in 1948, 1956, 1967 and 1973. Are you listening Mr Arafat?
Prof van Creveld is author of The Sword and the Olive; a Critical History of the Israel
Defence Force (New York, 1998). He lives in Jerusalem
27 April 2002: Plotter of Saddam's fall pleads case in US
8 February 2002: Sharon promises to help Bush if he attacks Saddam
Previous story: Terror International
Next story: Industrialist art collector Baron von Thyssen dies
Related reports
Middle East Factfile
External links
Research materials on refugees issues - Palestinian Refugee Research
Israel's War of Independence - Machal
Patterns of Palestinian exodus - Birzeit University
Historical myths - Electronic Intifada
� Copyright of Telegraph Group Limited 2002.
End<{{{
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